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Brexit Thread VI - The Knockout Phase ?!?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Hrothbern, Mar 22, 2019.

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  1. Akka

    Akka Moody old mage.

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    The EU structure is basically the same as the US : every state elect its representatives, and these representatives chose the government. So I don't see how the EU is any less democratic than the US (though I'd guess you'll say that the US are not a democracy either, at which point I'd wonder which "national governments in general" you're speaking about).
     
  2. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    The Us doesn't close ATMs in its states, m8.
     
  3. Lexicus

    Lexicus Deity

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    It's also not really what I'm arguing. I believe it is disingenuous to claim that the EU is merely a 'bargaining table' between different countries on the one hand while also claiming it is the cutting-edge of a process of European integration beginning all the way back in the 1950s on the other. Where does the "process of European integration" go if not federalization?

    And, btw, I think the EU would actually be improved by federalization - empowering the European parliament and creating a fiscal sovereignty behind the Euro would have the potential to solve many of the problems created by the existing structure. But that will never happen because the EU is a tool devised to place the rule of capital beyond the possibility of democratic challenge.

    No, the legal restrictions on government deficits and social protections do not keep the race to the bottom under control. Quite the contrary, in fact: by removing these policy tools from the national governments they make "market-friendly" and "investor-friendly" policies all but inevitable because those are the only ones available that can bring even a semblance of growth.

    I simply don't agree with this. Corporatism is not socialism.
     
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  4. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    It is my view as well. After all why change something that works for Germany's artificial and ridiculous no-tariff export industry?
     
  5. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    You think that the EU helped the UK for its own UK austerity program ?

    Oh no
    One of the reasons people in continental Europe could be happy with an UK leaving as member is that the UK only pushed the EU further to free market liberalism than it would have done without the UK.
    Blair was especially a disappointment for the EU Social Democrats. The UK Social Democrats functioned as a 5th pillar of the neo-liberals WITHIN the Social Democrats of the EU.
     
  6. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    I think you'd be shocked to find out just how little people know about the EU in this country. This comes up time and time and time again, when it is once again revealed that hardly anyone knows anything about the EU or how it functions. To the extent that almost anyone has noticed, it's to do with such continued scare stories about which things the EU has supposedly banned (spoiler: they haven't) or the £350 million in EU subsidies that will supposedly go to the NHS (spoiler: it won't) or everyone's favourite version of Schroedinger's Immigrant: simultaneously too lazy to work and coming over to steal our jobs.

    But, by all means, carry on doom-singing about things you manifestly have no idea about.
     
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  7. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Did you miss the part:
    which was placed exactly to avoid this reply? :)
     
  8. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    Depends on whether you choose as member for keeping your own currency or joining the Euro ofc.
    The EU is not really investor friendly compared to for example the UK.
    What does matter more imo than be able to run with higher deficits is to have a higher wealth tax and prevent the race to the bottom of the Corporate tax cq increase is over all EU countries.
    That is ofc a slow process even if you get majorities for it.

    But do mind that most people in most countries do not want deficits !
    And they will vote down any party that embarks on that traject.
    You need first to change the mind of the people.
    It is not playing Sim-City.
     
  9. Lexicus

    Lexicus Deity

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    The US, for all its issues, is far more democratic than the EU. You frankly have no idea what you are talking about if you think the EU structure is 'basically the same as' or even remotely resembles the US! "every state elects its representatives and these representatives chose the government" is not how the US works at all.
    The US federal government is sovereign, unlike the European Parliament or the European commission. Federal law explicitly preempts state law where they come into conflict. There are clearly-defined areas of responsibility such that it is clear where the power of the states ends and the power of the federal government begins. More importantly, in the US national elections are held to elect representatives who actually serve on a body with the power to make their own legislation (by contrast the European Parliament can only accept, reject, or amend legislation proposed by the Commission) and with substantial powers to oversee the executive (afaik the European parliament has essentially no power to oversee the Commission).

    The other major issue is that the US has something called the "Treasury" in addition to the Federal Reserve (central bank). The Treasury spends money in accordance with budgets passed by Congress. There is no analogous process in the EU because there is no European Treasury and the European Parliament can only modify, accept, or reject budgets proposed by the Commission (by contrast in the US the elected representatives of the people are explicitly empowered by the Constitution to create budgets).

    On a numbers basis the EU budget represents, according to wikipedia, 2% of total public spending in Europe - which is laughable. In the US the federal budget is more than half of total public spending.

    Rhetorically, I'd say it did, but not on any other level. The EU's policy stance makes it far easier for austerity proponents in the EU to portray austerity as necessary regardless of whether people support it or not. This helps their cause immensely.

    Yes, they do. What they really don't want is mass unemployment.
     
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  10. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    Ofc nobody wants mass unemployment.
    But do mind that in many countries where people have strong opinions on avoiding national deficits, there are strong social security systems. Incomparable with your reference the US.

    For some other countries the GFC was the typical big tectonic shift that laid bare much more fundamental economical issues.
    And many of them are only solvable by rural -> urban mobility and intra-EU mobility.
    That mobilty did happen also during the Euro-crisis from East to West in the EU. But not really from the South to North like in the 60ies.
    Actually we have now not enough (skilled) employees in the North (hindering growth) and mass youth unemployment in the South (draining govt money away from investments in those countries).
    And actually economical growth is now also hindered in the East because they need their people back.

    Politicians don't get votes for saying that honestly. Don't get votes by implementing policies that adress the issue before the eartsquake happens.
    Governing by neglect.

    A big tectonic shift: as long as the tensions build up nothing happens, but the longer nothing happens visibly, (the longer politicians do not react to root economical issues), the bigger the earthsquake when things move.
     
  11. Lexicus

    Lexicus Deity

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    "strong social security systems" cost money. It is ridiculous to claim that the European countries are immune to the government-budget effects of a recession.

    I just don't agree that "mobility" is the solution to these problems. These problems are caused by disinvestment. Making it easier for people to uproot their lives and move around Europe at the whim of capital is arguably making the problem worse, not solving it.
     
  12. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    Many people live in areas where pooring in money as investments will not help, because those areas are to remote, disconnected, peripheral. Not possible to get economical clusters that function.
    I wrote enough on that in the EU thread.

    Pooring capital there is like having good seed and thinking that seeding more of your good seed on less fertile ground will solve the issue.
    It does not work that way.

    Has nothing to do with the whim of capital.

    That depends very much on the interest rate you have to pay for your national debt.
    If you start the crisis with a modest national debt at low interest rate, you have a very big buffer.
     
  13. Lexicus

    Lexicus Deity

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    Governments with actual sovereignty (note this excludes governments which adopt the Euro) control their own interest rates.

    Yeah, and I totally disagree with this as well. I suppose there is just not much more to say. Southern Europe is not some barren wasteland like the Australian outback or the Canadian arctic where it really is too expensive in real terms to have much economic activity.
     
  14. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    We already have a dedicated EU thread. Let's not bury actual British news with debating the nature of the EU, please.
     
  15. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    Load some maps on your PC with GVA per small area, the physical map, the logistical map (roads, motorways, railways, ports, waterways, etc), the population density per area.... and compare and think through.
    Then look at jobs and starter company creation rates as time dimension.

    You have obviously now no idea on the efficiency and cluster effects from such realities !

    You think too much high level... too much financial economical and not company economical and connectivities to B2B suppliers and people.
    The makeabilities of economies is not that high.
    Also not of more plan-economies of for example China.

    Unless you can gamble big enough to start near for example Palermo the EU industrial cluster for building all the TVs, PC monitors, etc now all imported from from Korea.
    Start in Greece in Thessalonika (not because of Kyr, it is the only viable option) a complete pharma research IP industry (chemical industry already there in the area as base).
    etc.

    But just "more of the same" where the people are currently living with little or low paid jobs is a waste of hope, efforts and money (money in the sense that the equipment you buy for that money is the time of skilled people that could also have produced something that has more value for an economy).
    As wastefull as the trickling down.

    ok :)
     
  16. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    On the EU election front
    The results of the exit polls of the Netherlands are made public.
    Highest turnout since 1989, clear pro-European vote, the Social Democrats since many years again the biggest party, the populist right (despite all the doom articles) no change compared to 2014.
     
  17. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    What's the betting that May will spin out her departure date for as long as she can? We already know that she has virtually no shame in her implacable stubbornness.
     
  18. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    A Boris Johnson behind bars, whether just a week or longer, would deliver a nice set of pictures, that will haunt him, I hope, for the rest of his political life, if any of that still possible at all.
     
  19. Sofista

    Sofista card-carrying

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    Now, this is a fantastic metaphor that I'm going to put to use in countless RL discussions. Thank you!
     
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  20. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    If Boris gets a custodial sentence, his constituents should recall him. Quite frankly, any MP who gets a custodial sentence of a certain length should be automatically recalled. We shouldn't pay for them to spend time at Her Majesty's pleasure.

    I didn't invent the concept by any means, but go right ahead. :)
     
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