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Brexit Thread VI - The Knockout Phase ?!?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Hrothbern, Mar 22, 2019.

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  1. Cheetah

    Cheetah Chieftain

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    Once again, it is an instance of rules made in the UK, by the UK, and blamed on the EU by Brexiteers.

    Polls can be made public after voting ends in other EU members, simply because their governments haven't made such laws there.
     
  2. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    yes
    We had yesterday evening an exit poll of Ipsos and today from Ipsos the analysis of the movements towards the Social Democrats and comparisons with the last elections, and ofc the % per party eurosceptic etc.
    It's kind of a tradition here that we demand expect that we get during the full evening (and deep in the night) of the election the results and comments and experts and lose analysisses, and soon after fuller analysisses.

    We have also the old tradition in the Netherlands that every (voter) citizen is allowed to be in the poll station where after the counting the result is directly made public to the audience: "hear, hear... etc"

    So we had parallel to the Ipsos exit poll, a much broader "poll" based on the exact results of roughly 700 polling stations (of the in total roughly 9,000 polling stations).
    Volunteers of that polling initiative were at the polling stations and communicated the results to a central point where our polling guru did put those data in his models to adjust for regional effects.
    Based on this poll, from a sample of more than 500,000 voters, we got a better estimate, which shows BTW that the populist rightwing PVV of Geert Wilders could very well disappear in the final results (going down from 4 to 0 seats) and the populist rightwing FvD got 3 of the seats of Geert Wilders. The evangelist Christian parties, marked as eurosceptic in international articles stayed at 2 seats but has only 8% voters that want out of the EU, and the eurosceptic Socialistic Party, that had 2 seats got 0 seats. In general the more eurosceptic parties had lower turnout from "their" voters from past elections. In general the (ideological) leaderships of eurosceptic parties are more eurosceptic than their voters. They get disconnected at the moment on that topic.
    And the Social Democrats are certainly the biggest party going from 3 in 2014 to 5 or more likely 6 now.
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2019
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  3. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    If May stops being pm at June 7 will she have been pm for longer than Gordon Brown?
     
  4. brennan

    brennan Argumentative Brit

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  5. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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    Well with Boris likely to succeed her we may get the new idiot, worse than the old idiot.
    Lets just hope some of those Tories who said they wouldn't stay Tory if Boris was leader actually meant it.
     
  6. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    As at 29th May (next Wednesday), she'll become only the sixth shortest-serving Prime Minister since 1900 and no longer the shortest-serving one this century.

    Meanwhile, Boris has claimed that if he's elected, Britain will leave the EU in October, come what may. Good luck getting that one past Parliament.
     
  7. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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    The Brexiteer theory as expounded by Rees-Mogg is that they don't need to get it past Parliament.
    Parliament passed Article 50 so all they need do is wait until the extension runs out.
    They could be right from a legal pov so hopefully that handful of Tories desert him and we get a general election.
     
  8. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    Well, as I understand it, since the various "Henry VIII" powers haven't been used, we'd be both in and out at the same time, since the Government can't unilaterally reverse all the various pieces of legislation that would be necessary to fully decouple from Europe. I won't pretend to have studied it in any great detail, though.

    Of course, this is also Boris speaking, who has long practised the joys of saying any damn thing he thinks will get him into 10 Downing Street.
     
  9. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    It looks like Queen Elisabeth II has still a chance to push King George III from the first place.
    King George III enjoyed 14 Prime Ministers during his reign from 1760-1820. BTW also the King during who's reign Ireland was united in the United Kingdom.
    Queen Elisabeth II, so far from 1952-2019, would also reach 14 when the successor of May is installed.

    And when Boris Johnson breaks the record of George Canning, being 119 days in 1827.... well... who knows :)
     
  10. adcarrymaokai

    adcarrymaokai Chieftain

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    Making all this Brexit mess and then just bailing on the British people like this. Hilarious.
     
  11. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    In that respect, she's better than David Cameron at least, who resigned the day after the referendum and was out of office a mere three weeks later.
     
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  12. uppi

    uppi Warlord

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    The UK might not pass the necessary legislation to decouple from the EU, but the EU already has the legislation to decouple the UK from it once the extension expires. The UK might still have to follow EU regulations, because their own laws say so, but the EU would still start to require custom checks on everything entering the EU from the UK. Any responsible parliament would then go on to pass legislation to rectify this asymmetry one way or the other.

    All a Brextremist PM would have to do would be to sabotage any possible deal or extension and he'd get a hard Brexit unless Parliament takes drastic actions (like vote of no confidence, revoking Article 50, reviving May's deal). And I suspect that only a vote of no confidence does have a realistic chance of succeeding. If timed correctly, it may be to late to get a new PM and there is no PM to negotiate an extension, so the UK leaves by default.
     
  13. Takhisis

    Takhisis is it fall yet

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    I see on the Beeb article that she claimed to be ‘the second female PM, but certainly not the last’.

    No. Don't you dare suddenly pretend to be a feminist after all that your administration has perpetrated.
     
  14. Takhisis

    Takhisis is it fall yet

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    Owen Jones has written an obituary for Theresa May's disastrous premiership. Here goes:

    Feel no pity for Theresa May. She has been the worst prime minister in modern times

    Deceit and dishonesty were hallmarks of her doomed reign. From her Brexit dealings to the Windrush scandal, she has failed

    Spoiler :
    Spare me the inevitable pity for Theresa May after her tearful farewell address this morning. “Oh, wasn’t she given such a terrible hand!”, people might cry, or “is it her fault that her backbenchers are such a bunch of Neanderthal extremists?”, and “it’s not her fault Brexit is such an undeliverable mess, is it?”. We must see through this. May is the worst prime minister – on their own terms – since Lord North’s reign in the late 18th century, when the US colonies declared their independence.

    May did indeed inherit a terrible hand. She then proceeded to douse it liberally with petrol and set it alight.

    Let’s start with Brexit. The official leave campaigns, and their vitriol about migrants and refugees, merely built on the foundations laid by a home secretary who sent “go home” vans around mixed communities, who spread pernicious myths of being unable to deport illegal migrants because they owned a pet cat, and under whose watch gay refugees felt obliged to film themselves having sex to avoid deportation. There is only one discernible consistency in May’s ideology – and that is bashing migrants.

    When she became prime minister, May and her coterie of advisers – defined by a swagger and bravado that would swiftly become hubris – hungrily set their eyes on devouring Ukip’s voting tally in the 2015 election in order to hand the Tories the landslide victory they’d been denied for three decades. “No deal is better than a bad deal,” became her defining mantra, raising expectations to impossible levels and conferring respectability, desirability even, on a disastrous Brexit outcome: the chutzpah, then, of quoting Nicholas Winton when he said, “compromise is not a dirty word”, in her farewell speech.

    Her allies in the media set about monstering her opponents, poisoning the well of political discourse: the notorious “ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE” Daily Mail front page was penned by James Slack, who promptly became her press secretary. The May premiership will be remembered for creating an environment where terms like “traitor” and “saboteur” became commonplace. She, too, deliberately stoked a culture war that threatens to consume Britain, most notoriously in her demagogic “If you believe you are a citizen of the world, you are a citizen of nowhere,” speech. She appointed Boris Johnson as foreign secretary, antagonising the EU states with whom she needed to strike a deal and reducing Britain further to the status of a laughing stock.

    For purely domestic partisan gain, she repeatedly made inflammatory speeches about the EU that achieved nothing but fostered bad will. Her chancellor, Philip Hammond, made threats that if Britain did not get what it wanted, the government would undercut the EU in a race to the bottom of tax cuts and deregulation. This was not just a commitment to repeal the hard-won rights and freedoms of the British people, but a near declaration of war on what are supposed to be Britain’s partners. But whatever her demagoguery, whatever her laughable empty platitudes of a “red, white and blue Brexit”, May had no meaningful plan at all, other than undeliverable red lines. She couldn’t negotiate a deal with her own party, let alone with 27 foreign governments.

    Holding back tears, May ended her speech describing “the enormous and enduring gratitude to have had the opportunity to serve the country I love”, but her real commitment was only to her party. She promised over and over again that she would not call a general election, but believing she had the opportunity to obliterate her opposition and turn Britain into a de facto one-party state, she broke her word. Deceit and dishonesty were the hallmarks of her doomed reign. When the Tories had their majority snatched away, May became a zombie prime minister: sadly, as any avid watcher of the genre can testify, zombies can cause a lot of damage, and are very hard to dispose of.

    Having hyped up “no deal is better than a bad deal”, May led Britain to the entirely predictable humiliation of a bad deal. That her party’s zealots increasingly embraced pushing Britain off the precipice was unsurprising: she kept throwing them red meat, and they had only grown fatter and hungrier.

    But it’s not just Brexit, for we must judge a prime minister by her own promises. When she fatefully assumed the premiership, she declared war on the “burning injustices” she correctly identified had paved the road to Brexit. And then, in the subsequent three years, she oversaw the biggest jump in child poverty for three decades; a housing crisis which has only worsened; the rollout of a universal credit system which is a life-destroying disaster. The Grenfell fire will endure as a reminder of a social order built by Toryism which prioritises money over human life. The Windrush scandal – in which British citizens were denied medical care, kicked out of their homes and even deported from their own country – will remain a salutary lesson of where the migrant-baiting May promoted leads. The surge in violent crime will always testify to the disastrous consequences of the austerity May herself championed.

    And however more insular Britain has become, let’s not forget May’s foreign policy record, either: whether it be selling weapons to Turkey’s murderous regime, or arming and backing a Saudi dictatorship that has rained British weapons on Yemen, slaughtering thousands of innocents and creating the world’s worst humanitarian disaster. If you wish to spend a moment expending valuable human sympathy, do it not for May – do it for them.

    The only leeway I will give May is this. With Britain in turmoil, it will be so easy for the Tory party to claim this is all on her; to treat her as a human sponge, soaking up all the blame. But to paraphrase George Osborne – himself one of the chief architects of the chaos of our time – they are all in this together. They all imposed cuts that ripped up our social infrastructure and fuelled discontent and anger. They all whipped up resentment against migrants for the “burning injustices” they, and their party’s wealthy bankrollers, were responsible for. They all promoted an ideology which prioritises markets ahead of human needs and aspirations.

    The May era was a time of chaos; but something worse now beckons. Until Britain is rid of being ruled by a disintegrating Tory party – the proximate cause of our ills – and a rotten social order that decays further with every passing day, then the turmoil will not only continue but deepen. What a legacy to leave.

    I'd forgotten about the Go Home vans, myself.
     
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  15. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    I see that Owen Jones is also torching May's turd sandwich.
     
  16. Takhisis

    Takhisis is it fall yet

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    The best comment I've seen on the succession is that this (the spoilered image below) is the Charge of the Right Brigade.

    Spoiler :
     
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  17. Ajidica

    Ajidica High Quality Person

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    At least David Hameron realized his uselessness and scarpered before wasting time. The Maybot wasted months trying to polish a turd that she knew nobody wanted and then faffed around before literally begging the European Union an extension in the hope somebody else would come up with a better idea. It is a high bar to be more useless than Corbyn, but somehow, the Maybot managed.
     
  18. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    I think i only recognize five of those critters. Boris, Gove, that global trade deal/Singapore guy whose name i forget, Sajid (who looks even worse in this cartoon...) and Rudd.
    Where is the Mogg? Also, is the woman in pink clothes supposed to be May?

    edit: i also have seen the one who looks like the SVU detective in that old tv show, but don't know his name either.
     
  19. Takhisis

    Takhisis is it fall yet

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    up yours!
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  20. Traitorfish

    Traitorfish The Tighnahulish Kid

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    The average Brexit voter is over fifty and lives in the suburbs. I can't see them putting a brick through a window.
     
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