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Brexit Thread VI - The Knockout Phase ?!?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Hrothbern, Mar 22, 2019.

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  1. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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    The representatives of the people, elected in an election that took place since the referendum, have already rejected a no deal Brexit and May's deal.
    There is no mandate for either of them. Only a general election or a 2nd referendum could provide one.
     
  2. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Chieftain

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    Arakhor, it was you suggested putting the terms of the so called eventual Brexit deal to the people.

    Long-winded EULAs are deliberately witten to be tiresome to read in the hope that the users
    won't read it, and difficult to understand, in the hope that those who read it won''t understand it.

    Has it never occurred to you that Martin Barnier and his team have done exactly that?
     
  3. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    Barnier's team aren't negotiating with the general public, but with ministers who (supposedly) have an array of lawyers and civil servants to help them out. It wouldn't be hard to boil down the Withdrawal Agreement (or indeed any agreement) to the key points of what it means in practise to normal people. GOG (the retro games site) does just that - when they give you an EULA to sign, they also give you a potted description of what you're signing up to.
     
  4. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    For now I hope that the Farage-Boris popular euphory grows to such dimensions that U-turns for a May deal in another font become impossible and they cannot contain the euphory anymore and have to go for elections.

    I spend a couple of hours reading posts of readers on several Daily Mail articles at key junction points of the last months.
    Is real fun to do !
    It's a bit like a big amorphous street protest moving... kind of unstoppable.


    Oh... any thoughts on renegotiations with the EU are anyway a delusion.
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2019
  5. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    Literally anything other than No Deal will be shouted down as Brexit in Name Only by an increasing number of Tory MPs, but No Deal will still fail to attain Parliamentary assent unless somehow almost all Tory MPs vote for No Deal and that certainly won't be happening any time soon.

    Of course, a "Managed No Deal" won't happen either. Much more likely will be us leaving without a deal and then maybe a week later we'll be back in Brussels, this time begging for a deal.
     
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  6. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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    There will doubtless be a rallying around the new leader and immense pressure put on any dissenters to toe the party line. Given the way even "moderate" Tories have flocked to back Boris I think he will be able to piffle away uselessly most of the time until the deadline then we get No Deal by default.
     
  7. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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    Latest round of voting.

    Michael Gove - 61
    Jeremy Hunt - 59
    Sajid Javid - 34
    Boris Johnson - 157
     
  8. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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  9. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    Which would mean Boris as PM during the first 2.5 years of the economical shock from the no-deal.
    Not a good position for an election campaign in 2022.

    I think Boris would very much prefer the full 5 years term after an exit. The first 2-3 years the bad time, the next 2-3 years the "recovery" which can be spun into that bright future in the next election campaign.
    This scenario would need new elections in 2019.
     
  10. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    I am afraid a lot of people will buy in to that story.
    From genuinely to wanting to believe.

    From that article:
    This sounds good for people who have no clear understanding of how more structural changes are needed for their interests... it does (seem to) reach out to all.... he profiles himself as an ordinary people's Tory
    Nowhere in that article Global Britain stuff, or Liam Fox magic trade deals....
    And on Corbyn ?... well... that's all experiments anyway...
     
  11. Mega Tsunami

    Mega Tsunami Chieftain

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    Quite. I believe Boris (if he wins) will call a very early GE. Many say Mrs May waited too long to call hers. Many, many say Gordon Brown would have won a GE if he had called it straight away when Blair stood down. (when Brown, let’s not forget, was crowned PM without a single Labour MP brave enough to stand against him).

    There will definitely be a Boris bounce, which won’t last long, and I am sure he knows he has to use it.
     
  12. Dachs

    Dachs Hero of the Soviet Union

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    brb rewatching the two Thick of It specials
     
  13. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    When exactly is he going to do that? He will likely be in power come Mon, 22nd July, MPs retire for summer three days later and don't return until Tues, 3rd Sept. Even assuming that Parliament votes to dissolve itself at that point (which is rather uncertain), that would leave a minimum election date of 15th Oct and six weeks of no Parliamentary activity, just a fortnight before the Halloween deadline. Do you really think that is going to fly in the Commons?
     
  14. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Chieftain

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    I have been about too long in this world to believe in management
    summaries, particularly those produced by the selling side.

    They always omit key things and bend or conceal the truth.

    I suppose that the nearest thing to a precis of the so called
    withdrawal agreement is probably the BBC's fact-checker:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46237012

    And I have my doubts about various aspect of that.
     
  15. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    Jeremy Hunt has beaten Michael Gove by just two votes to enter the run-off with Boris Johnson.
     
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  16. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    So Boris won.
    Pretty underwhelming contest. Hunt is the typical lifestyle no-ideas politician, no?
     
  17. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    Oh, he has plenty of ideas, but most of them are bad ones.
     
  18. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    Why is this summer break of Parliament so holy ?

    Is that a tradition based on decades of doing so ?
     
  19. Broken_Erika

    Broken_Erika Nothing

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    No-one messes with summer vacation!:mad:
     
  20. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    Let's wait and see how much will emerge on the Boris team trying to optimise the likelyhood that the contest would end up with Hunt instead of Gove.
     
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