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Brexit Thread VII - Revenge of the Brexiteers

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Cheetah, Jul 26, 2019.

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  1. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Come on, I know perfectly well that 60 billion is a drop in the ocean for Germany. It does care about its trade with Britain, though. But, being misers, your politicians don't want to even spend money on the Eu itself, despite your economy being the main beneficiary of it (to not mention re-unification under the Eu umbrella, but that is ancient history I am sure). In that regard the 60 billion matters to you as well, despite not being from a purely economical angle anything of note.
     
  2. uppi

    uppi Deity

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    And then this new government can sign the same deal. Or renegotiate and end up with an even worse deal. I get that you do not want to hand Boris a victory here, but in the long run the Tories will be held responsible for this. And the longer this goes on, the more the UK is hurt by this.

    That money is already allocated and pays for what the UK would be paying anyway. It does not matter whether the EU receives it now or whether the UK continues to pay because of continued membership.

    As a side note, your hostility is not exactly convincing me to support handouts for Greece.
     
  3. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    It's ok, I don't support Germany trying to dodge paying ww2 and massacre reparations either.
     
  4. uppi

    uppi Deity

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    Well, I do. Can we move on?
     
  5. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Lol. If you don't like the response, don't write the post. Sure, let's move on.
     
  6. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Λολ, this guy is so ridiculous it is funny :lol:
    As if he was some antagonist out of Only Fools & Horses.
     
  7. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    The treaty clause on exit from the EU is extremely simple. It does not provide for any payments whatsoever. There is no obligation to pay anything by a member that is leaving. Even the payments required of the UK are claimed on the basis of continued access to several projects with the EU, read the "agreement" if you doubt it.

    I know that the EU is supposed to be a roach motel, but they didn't make is as obvious as writing that into the treaty!

    On this, at least, we agree! I'm been trying to explain it to the remainers for months now, but they persist in supporting those who are digging the hole deeper...

    I do disagree with one more thing:

    Remainers are in fact blocking things because they keep hoping that somehow they'll manage to annul brexit. It's politically impossible, but they cling to it. And dig that hole (the division inside britain, and the attendant popular disdain for the political class) deeper.

    Where I disagree is that the current incarnation of the deal is the minimum the EU would accept. They've already backed down somewhat, the "backstop" was replaced with treaty terms covering fewer areas, and that the assembly in NI can discontinue on its own.
    The EU is unlikely to back off further before brexit happens. But after it happens they'll appoint different negotiators and reopen both the "divorce bill" and the NI status. The situation will have materially changed (the reality and default will be a customs border in Ireland, for one), and the backing off can be done without loss of face because of those changes (situation and people).

    My opinion is that the best diplomatic move for the UK is to leave without a deal. Diplomacy is not about pleasing your adversary, it is about getting the most from the negotiations, and the EU is politically fragile now. Whether its government of the UK can do it is an open question: it is also politically fragile, and certainly not the most brightest bunch, or well intended. But given the sorry state of UK politics it may be the least bad at this point for the purpose of negotiating with the EU. Some of the opposition are outright 5th columnists for it.
     
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2019
  8. Takhisis

    Takhisis is it fall yet

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    up yours!

    Mouseover text: If you'd just agree to hold your meetings in here, you'd have PLENTY of time to figure things out before the deadline.
     
    Samson and tjs282 like this.
  9. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    Its called a Hard Brexit, the UK can go down this path but not without consequences
    Do you want a nice divorce and continued access or you want to pock each other in the eye and burn the bridge down ?
     
  10. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    It takes two to dance the tango. If the divorce is adversarial, it is because neither side is giving in much until it has to.

    In any case if the UK were to behave nicely, it would have passed the agreement that the EU seems keen on. Parliament, it so far turned out, is the toughest negotiator for the UK. Ironically, given the proclaimed sympathies of most MP.
     
  11. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    And when a larger economic trading country/block which hold most of the cards demands trade concessions to a smaller country ?
    The EU been bending over backwards to help the UK

    The UK lost all its best trade negotiators because they all resigned and were replaced by young fresh faced inexperienced negotiators, The EU spent nearly a year educating UK on what it would mean to crash back into WTO rules, the UK then in panic copy pasted the EU quotas and rules only to be vetoed by Russia. This display of UK failing around like an idiot isnt the EU fault. The UK not only is in the weaker negotiating position, its has inexperienced trade negotiators, while the EU which has been making EU trade deals has very experienced trade negotiators.
     
  12. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    I don't believe in rule by technocrats. On experience, or allegations of, as a basis for right to decide on political matters, I just do not buy it. The issue of negotiating trade deals is not merely a technical issue, it is a political one, with huge redistributive effects on wealth and political influence.

    I happen to dislike the present british government. But more important than that is the principle of the thing: political negotiations are political. As seen by the fact that a "surprising" withdrawal deal renegotiations was agreed to by the negotiators, despite much commentariat by technocrats saying that such would be impossible. It may still fall in the UK Parliament, but the technocrats agreed to it. Because political power ultimately decides when it wants to. And in this case it is at play in both sides.
     
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2019
  13. Takhisis

    Takhisis is it fall yet

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    up yours!
    DUP digs its own grave. Now they are surprised that the Tories could dare betray them.

    Again.
    History shows us the Tory-DUP pact would always end in betrayal
    From Carson to Paisley to Foster, Northern Ireland’s unionists refuse to learn the lesson that they will never be a priority for Britain

    Ben Paisley for the Independent

    Spoiler :
    The exchanges between Boris Johnson and the DUP in the House of Commons on Saturday were short and terse, but they struck a loud death knell for the relationship of convenience that had existed between them.

    DUP MPs ranted and raved with all the exasperation of a party that believed they hadn’t brought this on themselves.

    The word “betrayal” hung in the air, and other words sprung to mind too:

    “What a fool I was! I was only a puppet, and so was Ulster, and so was Ireland, in the political game that was to get the Conservative Party into power.”

    This was not the cry of Arlene Foster after reading Boris Johnson’s new Brexit deal, but rather from a 1921 speech by Edward Carson, the grandfather of unionism. His party members were once again propping up Tory votes, only for the coalition government to oversee the partition of Ireland. Over the past century, despite their allegiance to Britain, Northern Ireland’s unionists have often feared another betrayal of British politicians.

    They were right to worry. In 1985, the DUP led unionist outrage after the signing of the Anglo-Irish Agreement, which gave Dublin a say in the running of Northern Ireland. The party leader Ian Paisley blasted Margaret Thatcher as a traitor, and oversaw the burning of her effigy. In a letter, he told her, “You have prepared Ulster Unionists for sacrifice on the altar of political expediency.”

    When the DUP threw their support behind the Brexit campaign in 2016 – in keeping with their lifelong opposition to the EU – they were setting themselves up for another Great British disappointment. Many in Northern Ireland, including the majority who backed remaining in the EU, warned the DUP that this could only end badly for the region, and the union. They didn’t listen.

    In June 2017, as the DUP walked up Downing Street to secure their confidence and supply deal with Theresa May, they were being led down the garden path. In exchange for propping up the Conservatives, they were handsomely rewarded with £1 billion. But their hubris led them to believe that they could also steer the government towards a Brexit of their own liking.

    When it became clear that Northern Ireland’s special circumstances were preventing Britain from achieving the Brexit which most leavers envisaged, it was inevitable that Northern Ireland would have to be treated differently. As people on all sides (the DUP included) rejected a border on the island of Ireland, quite simply, there would have to be some sort of a border in the Irish Sea.

    Theresa May claimed she couldn’t accept this, and opted for a deal which put all of the UK in a backstop, rather than just Northern Ireland. At this point, with the prospect of the entire UK leaving as one, the DUP should have counted their blessings. But instead, they overplayed their hand, pushing for a harder Brexit which could not be delivered without Northern Ireland being treated differently.

    Foolishly, the DUP plotted May’s downfall, while courting more hardline Tories, like the ERG and Boris Johnson – who were certainly more hardline on Brexit, but not, as it turned out, on the union. And who could be surprised?

    Despite being called the Conservative and Unionist Party, polls show that party members value Brexit over maintaining the union. Alarmingly, a majority even believe that Brexit matters more than maintaining peace in Northern Ireland. The message to unionists from the mainland is as disappointing today as it was in the days of Carson – they’re just not interested.

    Ironically, despite going over the heads of the DUP, the Tories have actually come up with something which is a reasonable compromise for Northern Ireland. If Brexit has to happen, then this deal is the best possible outcome for us.

    Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab even espoused the amazing potential it has to give Northern Ireland special access to the EU market; causing many in Britain to wonder why the rest of us won’t receive the same benefit. But even this final financial incentive left the DUP unconvinced, so concerned are they now for the union which they themselves imperiled.

    It is understandable that some unionists feel this Brexit deal is an existential challenge to their very identity, but it doesn’t have to be this way. It’s time the DUP stopped trying to find mutual respect and influence at Westminster where they are never going to find it, and came home to build a new society of equals in Ireland.

     
  14. mitsho

    mitsho Deity

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    I guess we can only settle that debate on who negotiated better with 5 - 10 years hindsight.
     
  15. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Deity

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    I experience this strange feeling of deja vu reading reports of Boris Johnson trying to steamroller [his] deal through Parliament.

    One wonders if he might have just as well got dressed up in a blue skirt with crocadile heels and asked to be called Theresa.
     
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  16. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    If the UK really embarks to low standards, to have economical cost advantages for export, the UK will await the unpleasant surprise that the EU will not only see the UK as a dangerous nearby competitor....
    but that the EU will also treat the UK as a dangerous competitor in anything related to trade.

    Merkel did already express that concern, in diplomatic way, but in public... as warning !



    That we have some tidying up to do in tariffs and NTBs with Chinese cheap exports is one thing.
    But here actions are (slowly, diplomatically) put into going.

    That we allow cheap labour cost countries like East Europe and South Europe to have unrestricted access to the Single Market, to the rich areas with higher wages, putting tension on those wages, rights and jobs, is one thing
    But here the EU takes the long term view that the countries that grow out of the catch-up phase will over time see their wage level increase as well.
    (And yes, that "solidarity" with fellow EU members is under pressure for example from Macron when East European lorry drivers, at low wages, driving in France, push French driver jobs out of their national jobs pool)

    When the UK, as big country, as developed country with a complex economy, able to compete with a whole scala of products... when that UK is not like China far away, but around the corner... when there is (a now ruling) poltical party, that has in her banner to only increase cost advantages from decreasing labour standards for its export (Britannia Unchained)...

    that UK will face a very cold negotiation partner for trade in continental Europe.
    except in those EU factions that believe that lowering EU standards would be the way to answer the Chinese threat on the EU domestic jobs.
    But those factions just lost a big country pushing for that erosion in the EU... for many years... from Thatcher to Blair and to Cameron.
     
  17. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    Caroline Lucas just tweeted that MPs had more time to debate the Wild Animals in Circuses Act (19 animals) than is being allotted for the Withdrawal Agreement (65 million people).
     
  18. Manfred Belheim

    Manfred Belheim Oh you can edit this

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    Well we are a nation of animal lovers.
     
  19. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    From the BBC's live feed: "Boris Johnson confirms the news we broke earlier - that if the government loses the vote on the timetable, the legislation will have to be “pulled" and "we will have to go forward to a general election.”

    He really is pathetic now. Trying to ram through a bill with virtually no time to read or debate it and then loudly insisting that he will take his ball and run home if MPs insist on not passing it more-or-less unseen. What an absolute child.
     
  20. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Deity

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    @ Hrothbern

    Well where do I start?


    Lowering standards would achieve nothing; the UK can not compete with Bangla Desh, Myanmar or Vietnam on labour rates,
    nor with the USA or Chinese or EU27 on economy of scale or on supply chains in capital intensive industries.

    Any agreement for not undercutting on standards would be appropriate to an FTA, not to a withdrawal agreement.
    And if the minimum wage in Roumania is lower than in the UK, we would view the EU as undercutting the UK.
    Having compliance with EU standards in the WA would mean handicapping the UK, and without having any benefits of a FTA.
    And no soveregn nation should agree to comply with unknown future standards that it would have no role in defining.

    The EU27 have very correctly seen the UK as a largely ineffective competitor (as evidenced by the trade deficit),
    for donkey years. Leaving the EU isn't going to change that. Unless of course you are caring to argue that the UK
    outside the EU will be more competitive, thereby demolishing part of the Remainer and Integrationist cases.


    A race to the bottom in corporation tax. Wouldn't work, Luxembourg and R of Ireland already winning that.


    They are going nowhere. The Chinese are largely ignoring both the USA and the EU with their NTBs.
    They are only going to grant you access to their internal markets when they think that they are strong enough
    for reciprocal equal access to wipe you out. Even the not so terribly bright Donald Trump has worked that one out.


    Increased purchasing power in East and South Europe may benefit German companies that own busness in those countries and
    export to them, but there is no sliver lining for the UK. Setting aside the top 1% or 2%, the UK workforce has seen a slow drop in
    wages for ten years or so, transfer of industries out of the UK and sees no prospect of any of that changing by remaining in the EU.


    The UK is NOT a big country.


    The UK is competitive in only a very small range of specialised products and services.


    for which geography is of little or no importance.


    In case you have not noticed, we do not have a ruling party in the UK.


    When I read about that book being supposedly co-authored by five members of the government,
    I laughed. I very cynically take the view it was most likely ghost authored and that none of those five
    contributed. I am not even convinced that they have actually read the book issued under their name.
    I may buy a copy if I can find one second hand so that those politicos don't earn money from me.
     
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