Brexit Thread VII - Revenge of the Brexiteers

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Cheetah, Jul 26, 2019.

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  1. Takhisis

    Takhisis Rum and coke.

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    up yours.
    The UK may have decolonised most of its former possessions (let's leave aside the conundrum of Australia, Canada and NZ being Dominions for another post*), and leaving all the other cases aside, in the particular case of Northern Ireland the UK is still the Imperial metropolis. And Norther Ireland is of crucial relevance as one of the major stumbling blocks in the currency process.
     
  2. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago Moderator

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    Aren't colonies usually places you have some degree of control over?
    Long time since Australia, Canada or NZ took any notice of us and in the case of NI isn't the tail currently wagging the dog?
     
  3. Takhisis

    Takhisis Rum and coke.

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    up yours.
    There was a footnote linked to that leftover asterisk but I deleted it to keep things on track.
    Basically they aren't colonies except that the Queen (through the Lieutenant Governors of course) does retain some discretionary powers as the monarch which are customarily not exercised. Everybody pretends it doesn't really happen, the few times that it does.
    And Northern Ireland… I'm not sure who's wagging whom, but the fact that it's a colony is borne out, for example, by NI being exempted from reproductive health issues that are mandatory in the rest of the kingdom (most obviously legalised abortions).
     
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  4. really

    really Deity

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    Northern Ireland is still definitely a colony.
    It is being administered by the Northern Ireland office at the moment informally and unless the assembly reconvenes it will become formal in a few days.

    All the identity questions are colonial in nature. Themmuns vs usuns.
     
  5. innonimatu

    innonimatu the resident Cassandra

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    While I agree that NI cannot be considered a colony, and that the spanish governments protesting Gibraltar are hypocrites, I cannot agree with your description of the Cyprus bases. Those are colonial territories that the UK refused to relinquish to the cypriots.
     
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  6. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago Moderator

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  7. plarq

    plarq Crazy forever

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    British base on Cyprus is similar to Guantanamo--though the Cuban revolutionaries wanted to take it back, at least on paper. Cyprus (either Cyprus) government showed no desire of taking it back.
     
  8. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Super Moderator

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    Soon he'll have to take some more real leadership decisions. The DUP won't be happy that they're likely unable to veto the whole shebang and Jim Nicholson, a UUP former MEP, said, “I fear that Northern Ireland is being offered up by Boris Johnson as the sacrificial lamb to save Brexit for the rest of the UK, the ERG and especially English nationalists.”

    And that's looking on the bright side, because the UK without the constant Irish problem won't need to worry about not racing to the bottom of pretty much everything.
     
  9. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Creator

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    It's not like Boris needs the DUP at this point; he is 40+ MPs short of a majority.
     
  10. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Super Moderator

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    Absolutely. Don't tell the DUP that, because they still think that they're crucial to the Tory majority.
     
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  11. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago Moderator

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    If he loses the DUP he may lose some of the self-described "Spartans" and I don't think he'll get many of the Tory rebels back or many of the most committed to Leave Labour MPs with this deal.
     
  12. innonimatu

    innonimatu the resident Cassandra

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    I've seen so much speculation that I'll have to wait to see before believing. But what of the backstop in this proposal, if it is true? The plan will live or die depending on that. Is Ireland giving up on its exorbitant demand for EU law to apply to NI for ever without an ability to leave?
    Is the EU giving up on its precious red line that caused may's deal to be rejected, all this drama and all these delays? If it does, they're not going to want to talk much about it! But Boris will.

    In before the media distort things: the issue that sunk "May's deal" was not the fact that Ireland was to have a different status on brexit. It was the "backstop", the fact that this status was designed to be permanent, with no way out without the consent of the EU. This was a gamble by Barnier and Varadkar, that they could impose it upon the UK. If the EU now give up on the "backstop" it will suffer a loss of face, whatever the amount of propaganda they place on the media shifting attention on the fact that NI will have a special status on brexit. But I'm guessing that part of the deal (if it happens! I remain skeptical of such reports) will be a demand that Boris and the bits do not gloat about a "win" and that both sides will avoig dwawing attention to the backstop.
    The problem with such a deal is that the issue of who "won" is bound to come up in the approaching british election. This alone is a political obstacle to reaching a deal.

    Speaking of obstacles, there is only one other I see within the UK, and it is bigger. Will Parliament vote for any deal brought forward by Boris? Or will too many MP vote against so as to deny him a "victory" claim?
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2019
  13. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Super Moderator

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    Weren't you also claiming at one point that Ireland was being hung out to dry by the EU? Because if the media are distorting things, we certainly shouldn't be relying on you to provide a balanced picture, given your proclivity to cast the worst possible light on any given topic involving Northern Ireland.
     
  14. innonimatu

    innonimatu the resident Cassandra

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    Yes, I have been wondering all along whether the EU would force Ireland to drop its demand.

    I can't say if it is Ireland dropping the backstop now and admitting that a NI vote alone can end it, of it it was the EU quietly telling the irish government to cease being spoilers. Because in the event of a no-drexit deal the EU party to lose the most was Ireland anyway, and their posturing on the absolute necessity of a backstop (a "permanent deal") would lead to the exact opposite: no deal whatsoever. But I can bet that someone already pointed out the absurd of "dying on the backstop" to the irish.

    I can't even tell if this is seriously being considered, or going to happen. But it will be a climbdown if it does happen.

    And at least I pointed out here, months ago, that the backstop was the problem and the thing that needed to be removed for a deal to happen. If it happens, I do get liberty to gloat a little.
    Mind you, I still thing that refusing the deal altogether and negotiating after brexit would be a better move. The EU has been bluffing all along, that's still my opinion: they need a deal, as much as the UK. It goes beyond the economic, the political stability of both is at stake. The EU's hand was never stronger than the UK's, only wielded by a more competent team. The deal proposal discusses as it exists (surely some kind of tweaked "May's deal" with different provisions on the NI issue) already reflects that incompetence of the british negotiators. They gave in too much too soon, allowing it to be closed and having a fight only on this most exorbitant of demands, the backstop.
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2019
  15. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago Moderator

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    The most important thing for Boris is holding his fractious party together and keeping both hardline Brexiteers and the rest of the party together long enough to get to a general election.
    It looks to me like NI staying in the Customs Union but with a form of words to allow him to claim hes got what hes wanted. There will be some sort of provision for NI to get out in the future if it wants to but he'll have had to drop the effective DUP veto.
    It should be enough to keep the One Nation Tory wimps on board for now and if Parliament rejects it he'll go for a General Election saying I got a deal but Parliament wouldn't back it.
    It might work out for him if the DUP and hardline Brexiteers go along with it.

    Its a climbdown by both the EU (if they agree to it) and Johnson. I don't think its the EU forcing Ireland to back down, it came out of the meeting between Varadkar and Johnson and Ireland would be hit badly by No Deal.
     
  16. really

    really Deity

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    Ireland loses in all scenarios short of remaining.
    We are just trying minimise the damage but take a broader view than pounds and pence.

    We have suffered from the results of partition for most of the past century and were enjoying the normalisation of the border via the EU and the peace process over the past two decades.
    We're not going to sign up to anything that brings us backwards and delivers a 'permanent' border.

    Short term no deal will be painful but should bring the UK to it's senses pretty quickly.
     
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  17. innonimatu

    innonimatu the resident Cassandra

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    I think you are going to see that EU solidarity you believed in put to the test very soon.

    I do understand the RoI irredentist position on Norther Ireland. But there is already an agreement that the citizens of NI can hold a referendum to decide on whether to join the RoI. The UK may try to delay but cannot realistically prevent it. That much you can demand of the UK.

    But on the customs aspect of the border, the Republic is as responsible for the eventual implementation of one as the UK. It takes two to dance it. If the UK wants to leave the EU, it cannot be prevented. If the RoI wants to remain in the EU, it cannot be prevented. If remaining in the EU means that the RoI cannot do a trade deal with the UK alone, that was a choice made by the RoI and the RoI alone. The UK is not responsible for the Republic of Ireland's choice to relinquish its sovereign ability to engage in diplomacy and border deals with other countries.
     
  18. really

    really Deity

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    Ireland removed it's constitutional claim on the north as part of the peace process.
    The referendum results were:
    Yes 1,442,583 94.39%
    No 85,748 5.61%

    Any border poll in unity will be through the terms of the Good Friday Agreement.

    If we weren't in the EU and were negotiating on our own with the 13/14 times bigger UK how much credence do you think Johnson et al would be giving Irish concerns?
     
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  19. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Super Moderator

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    Ignoring the whole "the EU will collapse any second" fantasy, your bolded text could replace RoI with any EU nation, say Portugal, and be exactly the same, which is just harping on about the evil, evil EU once again, whilst also pretending to sympathise with Ireland. As for the backstop, the DUP simply cannot be allowed a veto on the deal. It will fail if that is even pretended to be considered by Westminster
     
  20. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Creator

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    Come on, it is entirely unfair to claim that Inno "pretends" to sympathize with Ireland.
    And it sort of is tested in practice just how much "solidarity" exists in this union. Just cause you live in Britain, which never felt the hostility (prior to Brexit) it doesn't mean it's not there. Austerity ruined entire countries.

    I get the various positions in the UK. Eg Scotland wanting to remain. But I am surprised - and alarmed - that is always one-sided a debate.Yes, the brexit referendum was mostly a result of known english attitudes towards the Eu already there prior to 2008- and the very clear downgrade of the Eu, which now is filled with fascist governments and parties. This doesn't mean the actual state of the Eu didn't change for the worse, just cause a majority of brexiters voted to leave due to unrelated and old british jingoism.
     
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