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Brexit Thread VIII: Taking a penalty kick-ing

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by tjs282, Nov 1, 2019.

  1. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    When you've expelled all the moderates and have a four-score majority in Parliament, the electorate would have to be even more masochistic than I ever thought possible to continue supporting Johnson if the situation gets suddenly much worse. After all, leaving the EU now rather than last year hasn't changed one iota of the problems with leaving the EU in the first place.
     
  2. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    You are assuming, wrongly, that hard brexit is regarded as a threat by the government of the UK. If instead that is a preferred outcome then the threat is not hanging over their side in the negotiations.

    The EU, for its side, has been consistently avoiding a hard brexit, even pushing for the extension before they were asked.

    If one side in the negotiations worries little about a hard brexit and the other is trying to avoid it, to which does the threat of it apply?
     
  3. Cheetah

    Cheetah Deity

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    No, there's one crucial difference:

    After the 31st of January 2020 the United Kingdom will be out of the European Union. No ifs, no buts. No return.

    The UK will not partake in the Council, will not have a Commissioner, will not have any members in the European Parliament, and will no longer have any say in how the EU is run..

    All the rules and regulations will still be in place, however. Every practical thing will still be as before.
     
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2019
    Marla_Singer and uppi like this.
  4. uppi

    uppi Deity

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    The last part is a very important point. There is no going back now, the only question is how the terms are going to be.
     
  5. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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    Happily I don't think the last is an absolute. It will be a long time before the UK is prepared to admit its mistake and I don't expect its application to rejoin will be met with unadulterated joy but in 20-30 years the prodigal will be back.
     
  6. Cheetah

    Cheetah Deity

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    I have absolutely no doubt that the United Kingdom — or any successor states — will rejoin the European Union within at least half a century. Probably sooner. :)

    That is, if the EU can manage to reform enough to keep going. My hope is that with the UK out, that will be easier.
     
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  7. mitsho

    mitsho Deity

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    Nothing is absolute in politics... But yes, Britain will have to rejoin under far less optimal conditions. There are no remainers any more.
     
  8. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    yes :)

    Also:
    Against the time the effects of this Tory Brexit become fully clear, we will be minimum 10 years down the road.
    Against that time Climate will rule the headlines
     
  9. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    Now if only they hadn't wasted three years, and their chances of having a different government, arguing over the chimera of remaining. It was bloody obvious that it would produce only grief.

    But but... the sky was supposed to fall right after the vote! Then it was supposed to fall right after brexit day. Now it's 10 years after?

    I guess it will be about the time when the "climate emergency" is really upon us. As in, never? I'm sick and tired of talk of doomsdays that fail to materialize.
     
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  10. Oerdin

    Oerdin Deity

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    The project fear losers really over played their hand.
     
  11. mitsho

    mitsho Deity

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    Now, you got me wrong. The remainers will now be called rejoiners. Otherwise nothing changed. It's still a 52-48 split of voters 3 years ago and who know what the ratio is today.
     
  12. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    Does that you'll no longer be doom-singing about things that also fail to materialise?
     
  13. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    What, about the EU suppressing democracy at the only level it somewhat works, the national level, and being a promoter or corporate rule? No, I will not because it's not any future prediction, it is denouncing what is happening right now.

    See the ECJ decision on Airbnb for an example: they're just am "information society service" and immune to national regulations on tourism rentals, so the court says. Keeps doing the EU's good work of advancing corporate rule over law.

    This ECJ is the EU institution you wish to count on to "protect" you as a citizen after a brexit agreement allowing it to keep ruling for the UK? They were always playing for the side of the big transnational corporations, and no amount of wishful thinking by you will change that.

    I argued here a long time ago that the only sane thing for remainers to do after the referendum was reorganize around specific proposals for the post-exit relations with the EU, which could include rejoining. Not that I would ever argue for that but it was the only sane way forward for them.
    Good thing though (for my view, the people of the UK are better off free from Brussels grip) that they instead went insane opposing brexit at every turn. Now any fight to rejoin will be much harder because they made the topic politically toxic.
     
  14. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    It was of course solely the Remainers who toxified Brexit and of course never brought any plans like a customs union or continued single market or anything like that. Everything else was totally above board and didn't politicise the issue in any way. :rolleyes:
     
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  15. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    I have always said in innumerous posts that the real damage for the UK (and the EU) would come from the disconnect in trade and would need many years to mature.
    Simply less well connected to innovations in all stadia from R&D to having better suppliers, leading to lower productivity on labour and capital. Less well connected in level, response time and cost.
    Ofc there is at the start of that disconnect, the UK no longer in the Single Market and Customs Union (now likely in december 2020) also a damage big enough to cause a small dip in GDP growth during 1-2 years.

    Climate change...
    Well... it is gonna happen and it is gonna be ugly if we don't act adequately
    But that was not the point I made in the post you react upon
    I said:
    So far Climate was mainly talking and not so much doing. That will be ended within the next 10 years. Big plans with policy changes will be in the process of being rolled out.
    When you have that big plan what you all have to realise between now and 2050... even when you have the people backing you genuinely and solidly to spend a huge amount of resources on it...
    there is basically still a timeline where you have to implement all those policies... many of them doing pain
    who gets how much when
    And only that will lead to Climate already ruling the headlines.

    For example:
    Somewhere on that timeline eco tax will be needed on fossil energy. And when applied on petrol-diesel for cars (we cannot wait until all cars are electric) urban people mostly not really needing a car, young urban people especially, will continue using the public mass transport or their bicycles. => no pain for them. But many commuters and rural people will have that pain and will protest with "why only us ?"
    The same with business sectors. Every sector from farmers to hightech will have another pain-profile from all the policies on the big to-do list. They will all scream and point their fingers to some sector that gets less pain from yet another policy implemented.
    That Green Deal... great... lots of new jobs as well... even more great. But it will not be like just adding some economy with some jobs.
    For every 2-3 jobs created, 1-2 jobs will disappear. And ofc not in the same town netting to jusrt more jobs. It will be asymetrical between regions, between rural-urban... asymetrical between old and new industrial clusters, between old and young people, between more educated and less educated people, asymetrical etc, etc.
    How do you lubricate all those transformation without breaking eggs.
    Governments will have already a difficult job to get a masterplan with policies along that timeline.
    Sectoral protests, newsmedia, politics... it will be a big mess
    => In 10 years Climate will rule the headlines
     
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  16. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    Well, this Brexit lark is certainly going well. Sajid Javid has admitted that "not all businesses would benefit from Brexit", despite various sectors warning the government that this would be bad news. Just remember, as well, that there is as yet no deal for any financial services, which make up something like 80% of the UK economy.
     
  17. uppi

    uppi Deity

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    Well, there is no deal in place for the rest of the economy, either.

    I am loving this bit:
    My best guess at what he is saying is: "The prudent action would have been to start leaving the UK three years ago".
     
  18. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    Less charitably, "I am a politician so I feel that I am required to cover my arse here, despite being totally in the wrong."
     
  19. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    from that article:

    But Mr Javid told the paper: "There will be an impact on business one way or the other, some will benefit, some won't."

    lol

    Imagine a general standing before his troops just before the battle:

    "There will be an impact on your lifes one way or the other, some will benefit, some won't."
     
  20. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    "... but don't worry now. Everyone pull together and let's face this like men. I'll just be in the tank back there."
     
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