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Brexit Thread VIII: Taking a penalty kick-ing

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by tjs282, Nov 1, 2019.

  1. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    Mr Javid has not only that tank for his personal ass but a second cushion as well.
    He can always defend with the argument that he is only implementing the will of the people on Brexit.

    One of the big differences between WW1 and WW2 is that in WW1 after the allied victory the people of Germany were punished for the war with the payments of the Versailles treaty (leaving the barons untouched) and in WW2 after the allied victory the barons themselves, the Nazi criminals of Germany were punished in Nuremberg.

    A troubling development indeed for the barons.
    A bit like that older troubling development when in the wars between nobility and town citizens around 1300, the old tradition to spare the life of the knights in exchange for ransom money was left and killing the knights and nobility on the battlefield became more common.

    The lessons learned from Nuremberg by the barons:
    Don't start war yourselves but first organise some direct democracy effect marching on their crusade and then just help them by leading the way.
     
  2. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    It's the truth. What would you have him do, lie?

    Oh right, you'd have him surrender (cancel brexit). But then again, you're on the field of the enemy (EU, the central countries of).

    Brexit was a political decision, not a business decision. Countries are not run for the sole benefit of business.
    It's odd that it must be the tories, formerly the party of all business, to apply the democratic decision of leaving, after the felt tried to block it.
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2020
  3. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Deity

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    No, what Sajid Javid is saying is that UK businesses have had 3 and a half years
    to plan since the referendum, and if they have not done so, that is their look out.

    And they have another 11 months to plan until the end of 2020.
     
  4. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    Plan for what, exactly? Companies aren't like Parliament and don't just wing things, especially not high-cash enterprises.

    Have you been to Britain, recently? This country certainly isn't being run for the benefit of its citizens.
     
  5. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    Brexit was indeed not a business decision. The Business was in limbo because while their general opinion was negative on Brexit, they felt in general that they should not really interfere in the political choice and the referendum choice by the people.
    But expressing a clear opinion by any stakeholder of a democracy is not only fully allowed in a democracy, it is a necessary feature of democracy. Everybody should be well informed.
    And yet... in limbo... the Business in UK did not really gave strong opinions.
    Perhaps they thought that the referendum would not lead to a Brexit vote and it would be better to stay low profile.
    Perhaps they thought that even if it would come to a Brexit this would be something "Norway" as was also expressed by Leave campaigners like Farrage.
    Perhaps they thought that their strong and stable Westminster would never take high risk profile decisions and that common sense would prevail in seeking a sensible Brexit.

    => during the referendum campaign there are conflicting reports on the economical effect by the treasury, banks, institutes and thinktanks based on theory. From doom to increased prosperity.
    Everybody accusing everybody else using desinformation on economical effects and it all becomes a matter of faith for the people: "who to believe" creating more weight for non-economical considerations.

    Chapeau for the strategy and tactics of the Leave campaign and the way they handled the situation after the vote. All the time the economical negatives were marginalised until they really controlled Westminster (the situation now).

    It is only now that the Leavers need to make clear that damage will indeed happen.
    And by accusing the Business by not adapting fast enough, by not already starting directly after the referendum, the Leavers can now blame the Business for everything that goes wrong.

    My main critcism in many posts has always been that the people in the UK did not get an honest choice.
    A choice between more political independancy with lower economy on the one hand or on the other hand economy as usual with less political independancy (for mainly the Barons... not so much the people).
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2020
  6. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Deity

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    For the most probable contingencies.

    Correct. It is still being run for the benefit of foreigners.
     
  7. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    You're snorting ground-up Express ashes again, unless of course you mean people like Rupert Murdoch and Roman Abramovich.

    Well, of course. Now that Schrödinger's Brexit is rapidly resolving itself into something inescapably harmful, the "true believers" desperately have to find someone else to blame. The promised land of milk and honey won't materialise, so it'll be the fault of businesses or evil Remainer plots, despite that fact that Johnson now has a large-enough majority to do almost anything (and therefore can't reasonably blame anyone).
     
  8. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    Uk government has had 3.5 years as well, Iam sure that if the UK government has not done so, then that their look out the EU fault
    The EU already said it will take Years to get any trade deal in place.

    I think its hilarious that only now is the UK acknowledging that some business are about to get hosed.
    Instead of peddling the fantasy of having their cake and eating it.
     
  9. uppi

    uppi Deity

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    Yes, but the only reliable plan is to move out of the UK with anything related to non-UK economies.

    Everything else is extremely hard to plan for without knowing any of the details.
     
    Hrothbern and mitsho like this.
  10. mitsho

    mitsho Deity

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    This!

    Swiss Businesses have learned that the hard way since we had quite q few of such referendums since 1993. They are now extremely active in the votes, so much that the argument of "the business will be hurt" has become kind of a in-joke. But it works, as they not so much spend money, but give interviews and so on in the real dangers of x and y.

    And those can be really small details, like at the moment, the discussion is about whether unemployment agencies get 3 or 5 days to propose a Swiss worker before the job can be publicised for all of the EU area.

    It's quite easy to make plans. Sure it will cost you a few workdays of your employees, the number going up by your size and for how many options you want to be prepared. But yes, it's doable. (with a small effect on your productivity of course)

    It is however something completely different to implement these plans. It's costly and it may take time. You also cannot do it for all options at the same time, that will cost some working days by your lawyers, and they are not cheap.

    And after probably having had contingency plans for a hard brexit back in March, they will be hesitant to do so. The optimal way is still to move some of your business to the EU. And they had some years now to plan for that after all.
     
  11. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    That country is on the same path where it was put by Thatcher. asset sales, squandering the north sea oil, and increasing debt allowed things to carry on, but the path has been a long one already. Being in the EU clearly has not helped change the path. I dare say the opposite, it allowed the UK to remain in that path.

    The UK is not Greece. Despite its relative industrialization what it still produces is necessary for bug european businesses. The very fact that the UK is already rather de-industrialized and a big net importer of physical goods makes the EU industry far more desperate for a trade deal than the UK. Trade in services already had to contend with barriers before brexit, leaving won't affect it much.
    The UK was always in the stronger negotiating position against Brussels. It was just that it got undermined at home, by its own bureaucrats either siding with Brussels against the UK or being incompetent. We've already seen that with the EU pushing for extensions of the transition period. We'll see it more plainly now during this year. Even despite likely continued incompetence on the UK's side in the negotiations.

    Blame Parliament and the remain campaign's attempts to overturn brexit for that. It certainly seems that the british voters did in the last election. Now the current government, finally unhindered by remainders, is being as clear as it can be on brexit.


    Also there is no such thing as a "business" subject. There are many people doing business (in fact, most everyone). Many of whom may have been remainers, many of whom may have been leavers.

    And my main irritation is this above, pushed by those opposing brexit. They could oppose it on many grounds, but after they lost the referendum they had to somehow make up something to invalidate it. So... voters are ignorant it must be!

    THAT IS A LIE. Please stop falling for it, stop echoing it. It's well past its expiration date, even inside the UK it must have been dropped by now. Brexit has been the most discussed political subject in a generation, drama and more drama. Years of it by now. And when it came time for a new government to be chosen, to break the impasse, voters gave a huge majority to the one promising to get it done. Support for brexit did not fall. They were informed, they knew exactly what they wanted. Just as they had 3 years before. Everyone had been threatened that the sky would fall. again and again and again. And still the voted for brexit.
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2020
  12. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    You've proven time and again that you see precisely only what you want to see in what transpires about Brexit. That hardly makes you unique, but even if you were right and the feeble EU is absolutely desperate to suckle at the teat of the mighty UK, even you would have to concede that the government has been even more incompetent to so thoroughly squander what you believe to be such a powerful negotiating hand.

    Yes, yes, all Leavers are unique, special flowers, but all Remainers thought alike. That wasn't true four years ago and still isn't true today, so give it a rest, all right?
     
  13. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    Given the mess of the entire Brexit by the UK government I dont think even now after 3.5 Years dose the UK actually know what it wants.
    Well thats actually wrong the UK knows what it wants from Brexit its just an impossible fantasy thats is not going to happen.

    Short of Boris failing to secure a deal and Hard Brexiting out of the EU, its nearly impossible that the world 5th largest economy is going to suddenly crash.

    The economic price for Soft Brexit is around a 4% GDP lost. The UK is already paying that cost with the drop in the pound, and the deficits the UK government is currently running.
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2020
  14. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    That not standing for doing brexit lost Labour much support was the idea Labour canvassers got from the people they visited before the election. Here's one example, from many I recall reading about.
    Sure the young students and the urban middle classes were mostly remainers, let them vote LD then. Labour had committed to respect the referendum result, repeatedly, and then just before the election joined in the remained circus and promised another referendum. I don't know whether remainers were all alike, but I'm fairly certain that all leavers were pissed.
    But fine, I will give it a rest. That issue seems settled, finally. Except... there are people far more responsible for the losing strategy than Corbyn running for new leader of the party. How many years of PM Boris do you wish to have?

    4% is way exaggerated. Even a hard brexit won't do much. Trade on goods, which was the most facilitated under EU rules, has the UK importing far more than it exports. If some dislocation happens, it'll be mostly manufacturing being set up in the UK to avoid (very small anyway) tariffs. In the studies I saw the amounts were residual, far less than the UK contribution towards the EU budget. The UK's government could simply unilaterally pay out those tariffs to the affected business ("business incentives"). But it doesn't need to.

    The economic risk for the UK, brexit or no brexit, is the next financial crisis, given as debt has risen so much again. And the EU has not distinguished itself positively dealing with the 2008- one.
     
  15. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    The UK will fall back on WTO and just pay EU Tariffs ?
    Hasnt this been debunked already as simply impossible and that it is pure fantasy ? Didnt Russia not Kill it dead with their VETO or is the UK just putting its head back in the sand with Boris
    Its not just Russia. EU (and others) is going to start prying away UK industries, financial services etc

    EU contributions was really about rebuilding Europe economically to benefit everyone, it seems to be German war guilt mostly but somewhere along the way things got muddled. I guess as the war generation pass on from living memory this was inevitable
     
  16. Oruc

    Oruc Reactionary

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    The future will belong to those who're swift to adapt and slow to complain
     
  17. Loerwyn

    Loerwyn Warlord

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    The thing that's bugging me about this at the minute (well, all of it is), is we're due to leave at the end of the month and then negotiate trade deals. So what happens in the interim? It seems like such a terrible position to be in irrespective of your position on leaving the EU. Instead of negotiating from a position of strength, or at least consistency, we'll be in an unknown and likely weaker situation.

    Like I'm not going to deny I'm scared. I'm worried this is going to affect my medication, and working in retail (clothing) I'm worried it's going to affect my job. I'm not unionised and my company doesn't recognise unions. I'm also worried that some of the protections I have under the law will be weakened or even removed, because now is the perfect time for parliament to strip people of their rights and protections.
     
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  18. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    At least the british mps are potentially removable by votes by the british public. Being in the Eu hasn't protected jobs in Eu countries other than the seat of Mordor.
     
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  19. Gorbles

    Gorbles Load Balanced

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    I really don't see the link between being able to remove our MPs (for . . . another MP, who's unlikely to have a radical impact on the status quo) and some comment on the EU as a whole being responsible for jobs across the EU.
     
  20. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    If the alternative (Eu law) isn't by itself protecting X, there isn't much of a relation between X and brexit. And assuming you cannot aspire to protect X even by changing the executive branch of government, your situation again doesn't look very dependent on your status in regards to the Eu.

    At any rate, we will soon find out. Supposedly you are to leave by the end of this month, or something.
     

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