Brexit Thread VIII: Taking a penalty kick-ing

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Heritage laws always important for farms
Is the farm going to the oldest son only... or is it split up among the sons (or kids).
If only to the oldest son, protecting a living earning level of the same plot for the future families on the plot... where do the surplus kids and sons go ?
When urbanisation is possible from growing industrious or later industrial activities they stay mostly in the country
When no adequate urbanisation is possible you get that enormous pool of potential soldiers, sailors and migrants.
 
How are ye defining an empire?
If it used that name?

Scotland tried to colonise parts of North America.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_colonization_of_the_Americas

Serving in armies is probably more associated with poverty and lack of opportunities than with perceived national aggressiveness or peacefulness.

Cultures that are perceived as aggressive are often poorer and lacking in opportunity.
Southern English saw the Northern English as more aggressive and warlike, the English view of the Welsh, Irish and Scots was much the same, and Lowland Scots saw Highlanders as much more warlike.
 
When will this exceptionalism stop ?

Many in Boris Johnson's Conservative party argue the current malaise in world trade creates an opportunity for the U.K. to play a leadership role, though others doubt Britain has the clout — or the international reputation — to pull it off.
Its bid for the top job at the World Trade Organization showed ambition — even if few thought former International Trade Secretary Liam Fox stood a chance. Despite being knocked out of the race, the U.K. continues to insist it will be an active participant on the trade stage.
“This is a critical moment for Britain and her trading relationships with the world,” International Trade Minister Ranil Jayawardena said in a statement to POLITICO. “We are committed to free and fair trade through free enterprise, the rule of law, and high standards.”
Onlookers hope to harness that critical moment. Senior Conservative MP Tom Tugendhat wants Britain to coordinate a new international grouping of democratic nations to pile pressure on rogue states, which might even spark some soul searching at the WTO.

And there are calls in the U.S. for Britain to convene allies and create something much stronger: a NATO for trade that can punish those who flout the rules.

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-conservatives-ponder-global-trade-reboot-china-us/
 
If this "China Research Group" the con mp heads is half as good as the ERG, it will produce great results.

yeah... mr Tom Tugendhat
and let's not forget David Cameron who played such a big role in getting warm relations with China

His goodbye present to China just before the referendum was blocking the EU proposal to get real high wide tariffs on cheap Chinese steel intended to protect the EU steel companies and jobs.
David Cameron has been accused of failing the British steel industry after the government confirmed it was blocking proposals from other EU members to tackle dumping of cheap product by China.

Sajid Javid, the business secretary, said it would not be right for the EU to scrap regulations known as the “lesser duty rule”, which some countries want to end in order to allow higher tariffs on Chinese steel.

The decision to block the proposals drew fierce criticism from Labour and the remnants of the UK’s steel industry, which has shed 5,000 jobs since last summer.
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...eel-industry-blocking-eu-lesser-duty-proposal
 
His goodbye present to China just before the referendum was blocking the EU proposal to get real high wide tariffs on cheap Chinese steel intended to protect the EU steel companies and jobs.

So, the UK nominally left the EU at end 31 January 2020.

The EU has had nearly 9 months to take action re Chinese steel..

What has it actually done?
 
So, the UK nominally left the EU at end 31 January 2020.

The EU has had nearly 9 months to take action re Chinese steel..

What has it actually done?

I think that some countries will have a to do list for after the UK is out.
But first it must be clear what the situation is, what the possible deal is.
And then you get all the bargaining rounds to get consensus majorities again in the EU-27.
Meanwhile there is a Covid as well.
Cameron blocked a oven ready consensus
Think about that when Tata steel in Wales is in tatters.
 
I think that some countries will have a to do list for after the UK is out.
But first it must be clear what the situation is, what the possible deal is.

I don't think any UK-EU deal will be relevant to the EU
taking future action on dumped Chinese steel.

But perhaps some still think that dynamic alignment can be imposed on
the UK in the deal forcing the UK to similarly impose sanctions on China.

And then you get all the bargaining rounds to get consensus majorities again in the EU-27.
Meanwhile there is a Covid as well.
Cameron blocked a oven ready consensus
Think about that when Tata steel in Wales is in tatters.

Once an industry drops below a certain size, i.e. less than critical mass,
the logic of intervention necessarily changes. Firstly the sourcing of low cost steel from
cheapest world supplier becomes more important than saving a minor producer; and
secondly that minor producer can not be saved by anti-dumping but needs state support.
 
I don't think any UK-EU deal will be relevant to the EU
taking future action on dumped Chinese steel.

But perhaps some still think that dynamic alignment can be imposed on
the UK in the deal forcing the UK to similarly impose sanctions on China.



Once an industry drops below a certain size, i.e. less than critical mass,
the logic of intervention necessarily changes. Firstly the sourcing of low cost steel from
cheapest world supplier becomes more important than saving a minor producer; and
secondly that minor producer can not be saved by anti-dumping but needs state support.

Normally you protect essential domestic activities with tariffs.
For a long period of time Europe (and the US) were so advanced in techs. machines and skilled employees, that it could handle that principled free market for everything concept.
That situation is no longer there
China has a "button" city producing most buttons needed for garment in the world
China has a "Christmas" city producing most (80-90% ?) christmas stuff in the world.
China made the big step over the last decades of being able to manufacrure effective production machines. Effective in building cost, unit product cost and quality bandwidth specs.

Now... the trick is that these goods can travel long distance... and without tariffs or NTBs they will push out goods in for example Europe that are also of that travelling type.
And a wellfare economy is not possible if you do not produce travelling goods anymore.
China will not be able to compete with the terrace of your local pub, or with your dentist, or elderly care nurse, etc, etc.
But those jobs alone are not able to be an economy.
Regions villages little towns... they all need to produce goods that can travel... that can be traded with other regions......OR their inhabitants have to travel, to commute to the location where they produce something.

The purist principle of 100% free trade only works well when you are on the top of the productivity pyramid of goods and services that can travel (you only need reciprocal rights)
The US decided in 1935 to let drop its sky high tariffs on imports and replaced most of them by 5% tariffs on a reciprocal base. The US was ready for the free trade arena. Just like China now.

Time will tell how religious the UK will stay with its 100% free trade dogma.
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The purist principle of 100% free trade only works well when you are on the top of the productivity pyramid of goods and services that can travel (you only need reciprocal rights)

Which the UK is NOT.

Time will tell how religious the UK will stay with its 100% free trade dogma.

The way I see it, Is is me how long the lobbyists can successfuly push that line.
IMO the lobbyists failure to win the populace vote for free trade within the EU,
isn't a special case; their arguments will also fail in a more general sense.

The Covid issue has demonstrated the foolishness of unecessarily relying
on distant sources, and providing employment is going to require
massive state intervention likely involving very extensive subsidies.
 
Which the UK is NOT.



The way I see it, Is is me how long the lobbyists can successfuly push that line.
IMO the lobbyists failure to win the populace vote for free trade within the EU,
isn't a special case; their arguments will also fail in a more general sense.

The Covid issue has demonstrated the foolishness of unecessarily relying
on distant sources, and providing employment is going to require
massive state intervention likely involving very extensive subsidies.

Winning the populace for anything related to trade will I guess be difficult in a topic by now so overwhelmed by dogma's, desinformation, political positions all deeply entrenched and little cohesive trust.

One of the advantages of being outside the EU is that you can tailor better WHERE to apply tariffs and NTBs,for what sectors and products.
By doing that you do not need (much) to defend products with financial state aid, you will however be more expensive for other products that need those tariff defended products.
Not simple.
You will needa similarcapital intensity of production, a similar level of machines-mechanising to keep the cost of products at arms lenght of current import prices. But it will generate jobs in your country and the market is already there in your country.

The "normal" solution is to trade at relatively low or zero barriers with countries who have a smilar (high) cost structure (and likely high standards) as that you have yourself.
With FTA's you can tailor the scope of low barrier and high WTO barrier.
And by that you shape where in your economy private investments make sense.
And your FTA trading partner will do the same.

China is like "the mule" in Asimov's Foundation trilogy almost forcing all countries to go to high WTO barriers (only caused now by China, but soon you can add India) and then make windows (also with China, India) for limited scope of products.

China is the one starting that asymetrical tool of massive state intervention.

I would not give up the basic steel industry. So much is related to that. And you do not want all the activities related to be at the mercy of some trading partner.
 
Speculation continues about whether France is willing to fish for a deal:

The French government has suggested to the fishing industry that compromises will need to be made, according to a lawmaker in Paris, who asked not to be named because the deliberations are private. However, as negotiations over the wider trade deal intensify, France’s position is fundamentally unchanged, according to a person familiar with the discussions.
 
I would not give up the basic steel industry. So much is related to that. And you do not want all the activities related to be at the mercy of some trading partner.

Cant you just trade fish for steel ?
 
The EU buys British steel for EU access to the pre-Brexit British fish ?

EU wants mutual open borders and yearly gold tribute
The UK is only the fith largest steel producer, and from the looks of things it has failed to modernize, it can always source its steel from the EU. Steel Mills are huge long term investments the one the UK have arent going anywhere and can always be restarted.
 
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EU wants mutual open borders and yearly gold tribute
The UK is only the fith largest steel producer, and from the looks of things it has failed to modernize, it can always source its steel from the EU. Steel Mills are huge long term investments the one the UK have arent going anywhere and can always be restarted.

So you mean that the EU gives up the fish in British waters and gets back some of the British steel demand ?
(some, because there are many kinds of steel grades and steel half fabricate shapes and the demand will change over time and steel mills are specialised)
I think that Brits buying EU steel will be difficult to implement in terms of tariffs and NTBs, also again because of changing demand scope kind of steel product and China facing some day in the future overcapacity in steel themselves (low price export)
IDK
But it is an opening.

That gold tribute is membership contribution and small coin compared to the financial benefits of membership.
That money is also not burned in higher operational cost of the EU or in EU countries, like paying higher wages, but a forced investment into all kinds of infra and for agro, for the farmers a compensation for higher cost from higher standards (envirinment, health) imposed by the EU. Many EU countries are in a squeeze between short term (higher operational cost demand from the people) and long term (more investments by a government with positive externalities for a better setting of the economy). Capex not Opex.
The proverbial manager of Big Corporate not looking further than the next quarter results is meanwhile more and more surpassed by politicians with an even shorter time period for results (Johnson and Trump nice examples of short term pennywise poundfoolish satisfying and influencing tabloids) Thanks the erosion of the technical quality of the Civil Service, thanks the erosion of the representative democracy.

Back to that steel.
yes
UK steel production is close to zero (7% of Japan, 50% of Spain) and you need to invest up to 300k Sterling per employee to be top notch again.
It is still a watershed decision to let go of a base industry, not only because of the B2B suppliers losing turnover and knowledge synergy (I care much less about the lunchrooms lost) but also all sectors downstream will be similarely affected.
The other big negative is that you have to import all steel, increasing the pressure to have products you can export with a comparative advantage. Is there any low-hanging fruit left there for the domestic UK industry (except services that can travel long distance) ?
The next base industry ?
Will that that be the lower end chemical industry ?
And where will car manufacturing end ? As assembly lines for imported components ?

Political souvereignty in exchange for dependency on imported essential and strategic components and half-fabricates including for shipbuilding, tanks, cars, machine building, etc, etc ?
 
EU wants mutual open borders and yearly gold tribute
That makes actually less sense about the 27 EU member states (who wants many things, including some diverging things), than pointing out that the UK Tories have a bad case of "cakeism", it demands of the EU to make it so that it can have its cake having eaten it, while believing in unicorns.

And it's even mostly fine by the EU if the UK believes this. The problem is that the UK demands of the EU to also make it reality. Of course the EU has not wish or intention to do so, but it is also a matter of reality itself putting up hurdles.

The EU wants to know what kind of future relationship the UK wants to have. Any of these are essentially fine:
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