Brexit Thread VIII: Taking a penalty kick-ing

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From two posts in the Guardian
I wonder... Is this kind of spite-revenge a widerspread sentiment

Person A
Feeling particularly down today and dreading that we'll end up with a miserable, thin-gruel, fudged Great British Brexit deal that doesn't really help anyone, pleases no-one, and still causes severe damage to people's lives and livelihoods, but gives unprincipled, conviction-free 'Let's go WTO' Brexiters an opportunity to at least claim they're happy because they 'won' and got one over on those of us who have consistently been against any form of Brexit for years.

Person B reacting on A
Brexit in total could have been avoided, in total I say again, if many, many people had looked up from their snouts at what their lesser favoured neighbours had gone through years and years earlier.No one gave a fig about my little town and where it was and what happened.
So I voted Brexit.
If I'm going down, I'm dragging you down too.
 
Tribes that think too much that way end on the scrapyards of history.
Pretty sure Kyr was quoting Emperor Palpatine (speaking to Luke) in Return of the Jedi — shortly before Darth Vader throws his old master down the shaft.

So yes, that was probably his point :lol:
 
So far 88% of the current flow of trucks Rotterdam-UK use the digital system correctly.
30 days to go to improve.

Traffic jams
Will there be long traffic jams in and around Rotterdam on the days after Brexit? Mark Dijk of PoR cannot provide the answer. 'Every day, around 2500 trucks and trailers have to go from Rotterdam to England,' says Dijk. It is estimated that 10% to 12% of them do not have the formalities in order, so around 250 trucks. 'And we have set up emergency parking spaces for around 700 trucks in total.'

Companies must digitally report their imports and exports in advance via Portbase, the port's data management system, which has a direct connection with customs. '88% of the total cargo to England has reported, says Portbase director Iwan van der Wolf. "Maybe we will be slightly above 90% before January 1."

Customs say they are ready for the final Brexit with 926 extra people. 'We explained the urgency. Small companies have still been called, 'says Brexit coordinator Hans Klunder. Yet he does not rule out disruptions.

At DFDS, they will not yet have to deal with the consequences of Brexit on 1 January. 'The terminal is closed on New Year's Day. The first export departure will be on January 4, 'says Van Kleef. So some time to get used to it.

https://fd.nl/economie-politiek/136...nden-in-rotterdam-dat-is-de-grote-brexitvraag
 
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It is quite astonishing what people can bet on (if they are foolish enough).

Here is the latest betting on Brexit – according to punters there is an 82% chance of a deal this year. (At least I think that’s what it means)

https://smarkets.com/event/40554343/politics/uk/brexit/trade-deals
Good site, but I do not understand it. How come Brexit transition period extended? = No has odds of 1.36 (73.53%) but Transition period extension length = 0 - 3 months (which is a superset of no extension) has odds of 1.44 (67.57%)? Is that not an arbitrage opportunity?
a razor thin deal on aviation is also a "deal"... or ?
Do the bookies have in their small print a minimal definition of a deal ?
Rules said:
If the UK and EU sign a trade deal between the 16th January 2020 and the 31st December 2020 this market will be settled as yes. If the trade deal is agreed in this period but comes into force at a later date, this market will be settled for yes.
This market covers any trade deal, either sector by sector or a complete deal.
If no trade deal is signed in this period between the EU and UK this market will be settled for no.
 
So far 88% of the current flow of trucks Rotterdam-UK use the digital system correctly.
30 days to go to improve.

IIRC the only new thing that EU trucking exporters would need to do for exporting to the UK
from 1 January 2021, at Rotterdam, would be to complete some form on exports from the EU.
 
IIRC the only new thing that EU trucking exporters would need to do for exporting to the UK
from 1 January 2021, at Rotterdam, would be to complete some form on exports from the EU.

plus inspections:
plus for example have wooden pallets be certified by having had a treatment at 60 C or so to kill organisms before passing non-EU borders. Quite a hassle in the squeezed lean manufacturing flows of pallets compared to simply re-using wooden pallets all the time in the flows.
plus vet checks
plus etc
We added 900 customs civil servants for that a year ago. By now well trained.

Also depending on the kind of goods, especially the small companies or companies with many small orders trading with the UK will see increased transactional cost and many of them will not bother anymore, many other will export to wholesale in theUK and many other will let bigger NL companies eat up their export to the UK market share.
(this is what I gather from all the anekdotical stories in news articles here).
So yes... that "completing some export forms" is a cost burden up to cost hurdle despite the ICT done and software now in place since November 2019 and well tested.

I actually don't mind that much about some losses there for our trade to UK. Except for some disruptions the first weeks and months, I do not expect that losses will be very abrupt and companies will find other destinations and customers.for most goods.
 
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plus for example have wooden pallets be certified by having had a treatment at 60 C or so to kill organisms before passing non-EU borders.

I can understand checking wooden pallets for organisms on entering the EU but checking
them at Rotterdam when they are leaving the EU?, that seems bureaucatic madness.


We added 900 customs civil servants for that a year ago. By now well trained.

They must have been bored with little to do because of all the extensions.

I can imagine it.

Shall we have another cup of tea or enjoy annoying this Polish apples lorry driver by checking his pallets for weevils.

I suppose that some will just switch to plastic pallets.


Also depending on the kind of goods, especially the small companies or companies with many small orders trading with the UK will see increased transactional cost and many of them will not bother anymore, many other will export to wholesale in theUK and many other will let bigger NL companies eat up their export to the UK market share.
(this is what I gather from all the anekdotical stories in news articles here).

Same thing is true for UK exporters. Many small companies with only a small percentage
of output going to the EU may decide not to bother, so more for the larger businesses.
 
I can understand checking wooden pallets for organisms on entering the EU but checking
them at Rotterdam when they are leaving the EU?, that seems bureaucatic madness.

I suppose that some will just switch to plastic pallets.
.

Useof plastic pallet is growing anyway

You will have to check at some sample rate whether the pallets were indeed desinfected.
If you don't inspect you can as well skip the rule.

Plastic pallets can be dirty with plagues of organic materials where germs can be (all the vegetables, plants, fruits, etc) ... will that not need inspections ?
I guess cleaning plastic pallets will also be needed, but inspection easier
 
I don't know the precise economics, but heating wooden pallets to 60'C and the
certification of that has costs. I suspect that it will reduce the life of wooden pallets.
Plastic pallets should be better for automated loading as wood warps when damp,
so for certain regular round robin routes swtching to plastic may become cheaper.

Weevils will find boring plastic pallets rather boring.


It is quite astonishing what people can bet on (if they are foolish enough).

Here is the latest betting on Brexit – according to punters there is an 82% chance of a deal this year. (At least I think that’s what it means)

https://smarkets.com/event/40554343/politics/uk/brexit/trade-deals


I wonder who is betting that, well Remainer UKasians and/or Continentals outnumber UK Leavers.
 
The UK have published the post Brexit requirements for visas.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-55133506
'Those seeking a skilled worker visa will need a job offer, to be proficient in English and earn at least £25,600'
This is the scary bit:
The government has announced it is setting up a new Border Operations Centre, which it says will ensure round-the-clock surveillance of goods and passengers coming in and out of British ports for the first time.
It will use £20m software produced by the US tech firm Palantir, which gathers information from different government computers, in the hope of minimising the amount of "short-term" disruption at the border in the days and weeks after 1 January.​

Palantir
Palantir has come under criticism due to its partnership developing software for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. On September 28, 2020, Amnesty International released a report criticizing Palantir failure to conduct human rights due diligence around its contracts with ICE. Concerns around Palantir's rights record were being scrutinized for contributing to human rights violations of asylum-seekers and migrants.
After Google had issues with employees walking out concerning the new contract in partnership with the Pentagon, Project Maven, a secret artificial intelligence program aimed at the unmanned operation of arial vehicles was taken up by Palantir. Artificial Intelligence is inherently controversial and its ongoing and further potential application and use in military settings is alarming to many.
During questioning in front of the digital, culture, media and sport select committee, Christopher Wylie, the former research director of Cambridge Analytica, said that several meetings had taken place between Palantir and Cambridge Analytica, and that Alexander Nix, the chief executive of SCL, had facilitated their use of Aleksandr Kogan's data which had been obtained from his app "thisismydigitallife" by mining personal surveys. Kogan later established Global Science Research to share the data with Cambridge Analytica and others. Wylie confirmed that both employees from Cambridge Analytica and Palantir used Kogan's Global Science Research data together in the same offices.
How A 'Deviant' Philosopher Built Palantir, A CIA-Funded Data-Mining Juggernaut
A CIA-funded firm run by an eccentric philosopher has become one of the most valuable private companies in tech, priced at between $5 billion and $8 billion in a round of funding the company is currently pursuing.
"They're in a scary business," says Electronic Frontier Foundation attorney Lee Tien. ACLU analyst Jay Stanley has written that Palantir's software could enable a "true totalitarian nightmare, monitoring the activities of innocent Americans on a mass scale."​
 
Not only regarding a US-UK trade deal but also as general trade strategy for the US Biden stated: "America will not sign a trade deal with anyone until the US has sorted out its competitiveness"

He wants his house in order before complicating that with trade deals.
Makes sense to me.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...f-early-us-trade-deal-dashed-by-biden-warning


From the meeting of Barnier this morning with the 27 EU ambassadors:
"The window for a deal between the EU and the U.K. is rapidly closing, and if there isn't more clarity in the negotiations by Thursday evening, the EU will have to focus on contingency planning"

Johnson answered indirectly this morning with horse trading on the fish
He is now reducing the percentage of fish for the UK from 80% to 60%. Barnier is still at his 15%-18% for the UK.

I did not know that fish are able to produce so much hot air.
 
This is the scary bit:
The government has announced it is setting up a new Border Operations Centre, which it says will ensure round-the-clock surveillance of goods and passengers coming in and out of British ports for the first time.
It will use £20m software produced by the US tech firm Palantir, which gathers information from different government computers, in the hope of minimising the amount of "short-term" disruption at the border in the days and weeks after 1 January.​

It seems more pointless than scary.

What is required are more Royal Navy patrol boats to intercept illegals arriving in dingbies.


Not only regarding a US-UK trade deal but also as general trade strategy for the US Biden stated: "America will not sign a trade deal with anyone until the US has sorted out its competitiveness"

He wants his house in order before complicating that with trade deals.
Makes sense to me.

Makes sense to me too.
 
There will be more trees, meadows and wetlands - and fewer sheep and cows as controversial EU farm subsidies are phased out.
Ha. Ha. Ha. The farm subsidies ultimately go to the landowners, so not on your nelly.
 
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