Brits leave Basra: Victory or Defeat?

[Che Guava]

A step forward, or an admission of defeat?

Basra: Planned withdrawal or retreat?

The British withdrawal from their base in the centre of Basra to the airport on the outskirts is being presented either as part of the plan or as a retreat.

The Ministry of Defence said in a statement: "The decision is an Iraqi-led initiative and is part of a Coalition-endorsed process..." That last phrase signals that the Americans approve.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown said that it was "pre-planned and organised".

However, a long-time critic Patrick Cockburn of the Independent newspaper summed up the four-year British occupation of the city (with the loss of 168 British lives) in this way: "In terms of establishing an orderly government in Basra and a decent life for its people the British failure has been absolute."

The 550 troops based at Saddam Hussein's old palace will join 5,000 others at the airport base. A further reduction to 5,000 overall is expected soon and more will probably leave when Basra province is handed over to the Iraqis in the autumn. Maybe 2,000 or so will remain.

After that, British troops will be in what is called an "overwatch" role, ready to intervene if asked to by the Iraqi authorities, continuing to train the Iraqi security forces and guarding the supply route from Kuwait.


The withdrawal

The manner of the withdrawal said a lot about the way the British occupation had developed. It was done largely at night under curfew. If the Mehdi army, the Shia militia that has harassed and attacked the British, had not been on a six-month ceasefire, for wider reasons connected to Shia politics, the force might have come under fire.

If the British presence had been such a success, the style of its ending would have been different.

The British government's hopes that, in Basra, British troops in soft berets could steer the city to peace and prosperity were not realised. The helmets came back as the troops were attacked and Basra is left under the control of a mixture of militias and security forces, sometimes one and the same thing.

In the end, the British view was that enough had been done to stabilise Basra and that in the final analysis, no foreign force could control how Iraqis themselves decide how to run the place.

Britain never did quite manage to understand that while the Iraqis, especially the Shia, were pleased to see Saddam go, they were not pleased to see the British stay.

For the British public, the drip-dip of casualties in Basra was suffered without an objective that was clear.

For the army, a key factor is that the troops are badly needed in Afghanistan.


Relations with the Americans

As for the Americans, there is a now a disparity between their offensive tactics in and around Baghdad and the withdrawal to base by the British.

But military analysts point to the very different circumstances of the two armies, with the Americans fighting a major uprising. If the British troops had been similarly engaged, their withdrawal would indeed have been a major disagreement. As it is, it might just be an irritant.

The difficulties of the Iraq operation has led to a falling out of allies, with two British general criticising the US plan for the occupation of Iraq as "intellectually bankrupt" and "fatally flawed".

By 15 September, President Bush will have reported to Congress on the progress of the surge of US troops into Iraq. It is likely that he will point to successes and to say, with the agreement of the US commander General David Petraeus, that the surge will continue for the time being.

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So how do you interpret this move? Have the Iraqi security services improved enough that British troops no longer need to be on the ground, or is this a quiet retreat of an area that does not appear to be making progress at all?

 

[Atlas14]

A step forward, but not entirely the best course of action. This area will undoubtedly need more attention and potentially advice/aid in the near future even if all foreign troops withdraw. I hope Britain realizes that merely pulling out will not be satisfactory for patching up a situation they were involved in.

 

[silver 2039]

I don't think Iraqi security has improved much at all. If anything its gotten worse with increasingly deadlier attacks. I'm not sure if the specific situation is the same in Basra but I imagine it likely is. So this is a withdrawal by the British because they have desire to continue staying to fight battles they can't win.

I mean if the British had been successful there wouldn't still be various militas and factions in Basra right now. Thus indicating they clearly haven't been successful and their occupation has been a failure.

 

[GinandTonic]

I don't think Iraqi security has improved much at all. If anything its gotten worse with increasingly deadlier attacks. I'm not sure if the specific situation is the same in Basra but I imagine it likely is. So this is a withdrawal by the British because they have desire to continue staying to fight battles they can't win.

I mean if the British had been successful there wouldn't still be various militas and factions in Basra right now. Thus indicating they clearly haven't been successful and their occupation has been a failure.

Bit more complicated than that.

In Basra there is not the same degree of violence as in the centre of the country. There is not law and order by western standards but there is a power structure that is more or less in charge of things. We may not like the power structure but de facto they are running things. For a while now the brass has been of the opinion that the presence of UK forces on the streets is a destabilising factor, rather than a stabilising one. The power structure seems to be broadly speaking governing with the concent of the governed.

Not really a local defeat or a victory, just having achieved as much as practical and now time to shift resorces over to Afghanistan where they are needed and able to actually produce positive results.

 

[JohnRM]

Okay, now its time for US Forces to follow suit and then we can all leave together.

 

[aronnax]

Okay, now its time for US Forces to follow suit and then we can all leave together.

Excellent....


Peace in Iraq, why does it seem so pausible and yet so much of a struggle

 

[MobBoss]

Poll needs a 'time will tell' option.

 

[AL_DA_GREAT]

they started the mess they should fix it. They lost in all ways, I can't see how anyone has benifitted from the envolvment in Iraq.

 

[Pasi Nurminen]

It looks like they're just moving from one location in the city to another. The airport, which is on the outskirts, might be a more defensible position since it's a lot less built up and there's no built up city to provide cover to any assailants. Convoys might be easier to get to the airport instead of the city centre too.

 

[Ramius75]

Poll needs a 'time will tell' option.

agree, its too early to say anything. then again. Its good that the brits are leaving. maybe things are getting better.

 

[The Yankee]

This seems reminiscent of the British strategy of having their soldiers "just over the horizon" when they occupied Iraq in the 1920s. They wouldn't have a heavy presence in these areas, if any, but everyone knew they were close by and ready to come in whenever they wanted/needed.

 

[GenMarshall]

Well, at least the British are smart enough to withdraw from this Iraqi Meat Grider.

 

[The Yankee]

To a base? Doesn't seem much different than the hopes echoed by everyone (even the administration) that the US forces could be reduced somewhat by next year.

 

[JollyRoger]

Now that Bush has driven the Brits out of Basra, he can claim victory in the War of 1812.

 

[Jesus Civs]

A step forward, but not entirely the best course of action. This area will undoubtedly need more attention and potentially advice/aid in the near future even if all foreign troops withdraw. I hope Britain realizes that merely pulling out will not be satisfactory for patching up a situation they were involved in.

The area will need more attention? By whom?

Let them help themselves now.

 

[Che Guava]

Poll needs a 'time will tell' option.

Heck no! That's a cop-out answer!

Serioulsy though, the poll is about trying to make sense of a situation in the present while predicting how it will affect future developments. Of course time will tell, but you could say that about anything....

 

[Joe Harker]

they started the mess they should fix it. They lost in all ways, I can't see how anyone has benifitted from the envolvment in Iraq.

Halliburton

 

[Jesus Civs]

they started the mess they should fix it. They lost in all ways, I can't see how anyone has benifitted from the envolvment in Iraq.

The entire planet has.

Wars in the middle east will continually push up oil prices due to unexpected supply shortages.

Steadily increasing oil prices over sustained periods will help foster the development of alternative energy sources.

 

[Masquerouge]

I'll say it's a defeat. Basra is in no way ready to be left alone. The mess made has not been cleaned.

I hardly blame the Brits, though.

 

[Mozza]

There are lots of good reasons to pull out, the area is largely able to Govern itself, and the actual mission was to stop Iraq being a threat to Britain and her allies, which has undoubtably been achieved. What annoys me is that none of these are the reasons British troops are pulling out.

British troops are pulling out because the British people don't like George Bush and Gordon Brown wants a quick crowd pleaser at the start of his term as PM by saying "look what I did, now no more British soldiers will die, just those silly Americans".