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Catan Mafia (Game Thread)

Discussion in 'Mafia/NOTW' started by pzelda, May 15, 2020.

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  1. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Quad B

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    Whoever she peeks she clears in the morning and they get NKed that night. That's why you want to peek someone who would be on the wolves "we can mislynch that one" list. That's why I think peeking me is a waste, because I don't believe there is a possible wolf team in this game that could mislynch me other than you and TS with all your stacked votes, and that would get both of you turbolynched so town wins anyway.

    Note that I am not saying you and TS are a wolf team, just that your voting power makes you a possible wolf team that if it existed could maybe mislynch me.
     
  2. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Quad B

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    If someone shifts abruptly from "we can mislynch that one" to "crap we have to burn an NK on them" the wolf win gets a whole lot harder to reach.
     
  3. amazonevan19

    amazonevan19 Warlord

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    I haven't been here since when I posted this morning. Got a few pages to catch up on and some things to do this evening before I can really get cracking on what I want to accomplish here before EoD tomorrow.
     
  4. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Quad B

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    Just so you know what you are getting into...you are facing pages and pages of pulling teeth on resources, which will ultimately end with "if all these trades go through when Pzelda comes around we can finally say these guys are not the mystery shooter." It will not say that they are not wolves. It will not say "well, we can't lynch them." In at least one case it will actually still say "if you are town you should have not made this so ^*&^$%^ hard and Tim still wants to lynch you even if you are town because he's just that way." At that point you will be caught up on a whole lot of not much.
     
  5. Marcher Jovian

    Marcher Jovian King

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    ftr this is only possible if I produce exactly 2 brick / 2 wood / 1 ore because I had spent all my bricks + wood voting d2.
     
  6. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Quad B

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    Thanks. I am sure that is an impossibility and that sets my mind at ease.

    What would it take for Csargo to have bought a gun?
     
  7. Synsensa

    Synsensa Deity Retired Moderator

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    since the goal is for just me to vote by end of day, i should only have two votes tomorrow if i am not offed N3
     
  8. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Quad B

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    Cool...I hope it was clear that my worries about the TS/Syns team mislynches Tim were very far down the list of things I worry about.

    You could give up on this generate an ore and buy a gun scheme and just buy yourself a vest. That way you won't get offed N3 for sure.
     
  9. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Quad B

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    You aren't gonna shoot me anyway. By N4 I will be the towniest townie and even you won't wanna shoot me.
     
  10. Synsensa

    Synsensa Deity Retired Moderator

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    in order to give up on such a scheme, it would first need to exist

    you and marcher keep insisting that i'm going for a gun so i can shoot you, and it is annoying

    if i get my trade today, i can get a vest.
     
  11. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Quad B

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    I would trade you but it's wheat that you need I think and that's my vest.
     
  12. Synsensa

    Synsensa Deity Retired Moderator

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    yeah, i doubt i'll get it

    it's not a huge deal, town-wise my value is solely in vote weight; my reads aren't very useful.
     
  13. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Quad B

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    Spoiler Punchy is town, period :
    Punchy the Cat. Hey Punchy, come play a game on this site you've never played on. It's this hyperextended weirdness with Catan mechanics that no one is going to understand, and you're in the middle of the most demanding form of mafia Tim has ever heard of, but it will be fine. I conclude from this three things. Punchy is bold to the point where his survival instincts can be openly questioned. Punchy knows how to play but maybe not quite as well as he thought he could. Punchy has bitten off more than anyone should expect to chew.

    Which brings us to EoD1. Punchy is riding one of two competing wagons. He is up to his butt in trying to sort out the mechanics that people who have pored over the rules and the thread for 48 hours are still hazy about. Half of the players are just not voting, which to him is an entirely alien landscape because I can tell you widespread slanking out like that is not common anywhere else this game is played. Hell, it's barely tolerated here when one or two people do it. So, YES, when a CFD with his name on it erupted out of the blue a self preservation jump was the absolutely most likely thing for him to do as town. Wolfing takes nerve. Panicking, by its very nature, is a towny thing to do. A wolf with severe time pressure having bought into a game that is running away on him says "Listen boys, if ya wanna buss, buss hard. Let me outta here and ride my corpse to victory for us all. Nice playin' with ya." He doesn't make a blatant leap onto a handy townie wagon and flip them green.

    Punchy is town. He's suspiciously haggard and terribly light on performance, but he's town. Csargo thinks he is insane, and I cannot dispute that.


    Spoiler Marcher is town, period :
    Marcher is darn towny. He's made some abrupt read changes that yielded information and then acted on that information. Abrupt read changes "look wolfy" so generally wolves avoid them. Producing information is generally towny.

    Specifics.

    Pushing on me after reading me as town but not really trusting the read is something I would do as town. His change of read and dropping of the push based on my reaction is exactly what I would expect a townie to have done. I know that Syns is now jumping up and down if I am still alive shouting "See Marcher! He played you!" unless he is going full tinfoil with "Marcher and Tim staged that whole thing." This is the price I pay for being me. Anyone who wants to follow that tinfoil, lynch me first please.

    Dead air, dead villager. With EoD1 bearing down I wasn't real happy about the wagons. The rush onto Argon wasn't great, but frankly there was some rush onto TS as well. I was inclined to write the whole rush off as just people finally getting it through their heads that they had to vote, with some of those people probably wolves. But when the rush was over the wagons were just quietly rolling along, and to me that was saying we had two town wagons. Marcher broke the silence. That may have been to save a w!TS. I don't see it as a good choice if it was because the most likely switches to a Punchy wagon look like they would all have been coming from the Argon wagon, which was actually showing as the lead wagon. CFD to save Argon would make sense, but not to save TS...

    Screw it. No wolf reason for CFD if tvt wagons. No wolf reason for CFD to save Argon since not a wolf. No wolf reason for CFD to save TS by actually putting him more at risk. Bottom line, w!Marcher does not start that CFD, ever, period, full stop.


    Spoiler Full list :

    My town:

    Marcher
    Punchy

    Darn towny folk:
    Evan

    Probs town in a pinch:
    Bianca
    Csargo
    Syns

    No clearance now:

    Arakhor
    TopSecret


    Seems like no clearance likely ever:
    Gamez


    Spoiler Minor analysis of the not cleared :

    TS may have dug himself too deep a hole to get out of because he will need to really work hard and I don't know if he has the time. He is unlikely to stumble into any magic word clearance at this late date. The trades clearing him on the missing gun certainly won't hurt so long as they go through.

    Arakhor is totally within town meta, but for all I know is totally within wolf meta. This problem is compounded by the fact that his town meta is almost totally lacking in boundaries so any wolf that couldn't play in that is just hopeless. He would be totally outside his town meta if he actually did any work to clear himself.>>> And he didn't. After pulling all his teeth out of his head I may have cleared him on the mystery gun. That is absolutely all I am willing to do for him.

    Gamez is hopeless and if he is town he'll have to be shot or mislynched to prove it.



    Spoiler Work on Probs Town Folks :

    Syns might work his way clear if I'm dead so that he can focus, but when I flip green there will be a huge swell of "let's just kill Syns" in the environment and that would likely be too much for him to dodge. Unfortunate.>>>Okay, I didn't get dead, but Syns managed to dial in anyway. He's been useful, he's gritted his teeth and cooperated, and I now think it is unlikely that any possible wolf team would have let him death tunnel like that. Pleasant surprise but he has worked himself sort of into the clear.

    Bianca...Dolby said clear. Punchy I think still says clear. Evan still I think says clear. I mean this in the most loving way, but my read is too dizzy to be a wolf. That lightness of tone, constant need for correction on how the game is even laid out...that's a hard act to maintain with a wolf room telling her the facts.

    Csargo...seems town. I want him to be town. Thinking he isn't is really tinfoily. I just can't bring myself to put him higher.


     
  14. Marcher Jovian

    Marcher Jovian King

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    Csargo would need to have exactly 3 wood / 1 ore / 1 wheat
     
  15. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Quad B

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    So, IMO if we lynch through Arakhor, Gamez, and Ts and don't hit at least two out of the remaining three wolves I will be amazed. Most noticeably, if Arakhor is a wolf then I don't think anything but flipping green will get me off of TS because that is the only way EoD1 makes sense. If we get two out of three and limit the wolves to one extra kill that puts us at Day six F3 LYLO with a decent shot at the deep wolf. If we convince Punchy to shoot someone in the POE instead of the towniest person he can find and we get two out of three, and the wolves get one extra kill that puts us at Day five F4 with one wolf and a very good chance to win.

    I have not yet tried to figure out the game mechanics for small numbers of players and I am really tired of thinking hard. Someone should start looking at combinations of townspeople who might arrive at F3 or F4 only to realize that none of them can vote, which would suck.
     
  16. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Quad B

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    That seems far fetched. I'm convinced that G1K was the mystery shooter, unless some of these trades don't go through due to TS or Arakhor not having the resources they claim they have. With that in mind it seems possible reading the flavor that G1K and Phoenicks shot each other.
     
  17. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Quad B

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    Bring me the heads of some townspeople!

    Oh...

    And keep them attached, please.
     
  18. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Quad B

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    In good condition.
     
  19. topsecret

    topsecret Believer

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    Trust me, I am doing my best to bring you your own head - still attached... and in good condition.

    I'm in the middle of an ISO of Tim. Which is just a fancy way of saying I'm re-reading the thread.

    Anyway, I'm working on getting every excruciating detail out as to why I think Tim is town.
     
  20. Csargo

    Csargo King

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    It's should be noted that Arakhor has a vote from yesterday just fyi.

    I'm at TS or Arakhor but haven't finished reading through the thread entirely. I have to go back and read why Dolby said to throw out his reads if GK flips.

    MJ + Punchy are pretty much guaranteed town for me. Tims is my next highest townread, which scares me a bit but most of my fears are tinfoiling different scenarios. Evan's been producing reads, analysis, and inquires that's been good and productive for the town from what I've read. Bianca just scares me honestly outside of tone this slot feels kinda weird to me? I'm basically sheeping Dolby's read on her.

    I probably need to just ISO Evan and Bianca, because I'm mostly working off memory and what I've read today while rereading the thread. I don't know if I'll complete my readthrough tonight and I probably won't be around a bunch tomorrow.

    That's basically where I'm at.
     

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