Catan Mafia (Game Thread - Mafia Victory)

[Csargo]

I have 1 brick, 4 wood, 3 wheat.

 

[Synobun]

That is an accurate assessment of my resources, yes.

Thank you!

I have 1 brick, 4 wood, 3 wheat.

Thanks! That matches up exactly with what Marcher's spreadsheet would imply for D4.

What do both of you think about the two proposed plans? Which do you find most preferable? Or neither?

1. Vesting everyone N4.

2. Propping Bianca up for another peek/vest N5 while someone else vests her N4.

 

[Arakhor]

If only one person dies tonight, we'll start D5 at an assumed 4/2 ratio. We would have to hit another wolf with the D5 lynch or vote not to lynch anyone (which the mafia will be against) and hope that only one person dies on N5 too, because otherwise we'll have lost long before Bianca can give another result on D6.

 

[Marcher Jovian]

Wanting to vote is fine. The issue, largely, is that voting and guns are identical if not for the ores. If I'm right, there are 8 ores in play. Evan has 3, Punchy has 2, Gamez has 1, and you have 1.

Evan's are forfeit. Punchy's are being stolen, if not both then probably one of them. That'll give Gamez 2 or 3 ores.

The solution to the gun problem would be to distribute them so that nobody has more than 1 ore. Better yet, we can vest up a few people.

We've got 5 sheep and 5 wheat in play. (Using Marcher's last spreadsheet, N3. Keep in mind this spreadsheet is inaccurate, as it uses my pre-vest resource count, so it may not have accurate tallies for others. It does not take into consideration D4's daily resource gen or Bianca's peek/vest.)

I have 2 sheep, you have 1, Bianca has 2.

Csargo has 3 wheat, Bianca has 2.

Who do we protect? Do we use my previous post as the foundation, wherein we don't protect Bianca and Gamez? Would they agree to that? Can we trust Gamez to vest himself instead of buying a gun? (e.g., if he says he stole only 1 ore, but he actually stole 2.)

@Arakhor, can you confirm that you have 6 brick, 1 ore, and 1 sheep?

@GamezRule, can you confirm that you have 1 wood, 1 ore, and 8 sheep? Can you tell us what your resources are after your steals go through?

@Csargo, what are your current resources?

@Marcher Jovian, same Q to you. (I don't expect a surprise here given your reported claim.)

My current resources: 4 brick, 3 wood, 2 sheep.

2 brick / 2 wood

 

[Synobun]

If only one person dies tonight, we'll start D5 at an assumed 4/2 ratio. We would have to hit another wolf with the D5 lynch or vote not to lynch anyone (which the mafia will be against) and hope that only one person dies on N5 too, because otherwise we'll have lost long before Bianca can give another result on D6.

Is this a vote for Plan 1?

 

[Arakhor]

Plan 2 is highly implausible, but do we even have the resources for Plan 1?

If we ensure that no one has bricks, wood and ore, then no one can purchase a gun, but of course that's also uncomfortably to the bricks and wood needed to vote and we can all but guarantee that a liability like Punchy will pretend to vote and instead shoot someone the following night.

 

[Synobun]

Plan 2 is highly implausible, but do we even have the resources for Plan 1?

If we ensure that no one has bricks, wood and ore, then no one can purchase a gun, but of course that's also uncomfortably to the bricks and wood needed to vote and we can all but guarantee that a liability like Punchy will pretend to vote and instead shoot someone the following night.

To cover absolutely everyone? No. But we don't need to cover Evan (7), don't need to cover Punchy (6), and reasonably don't need to cover Bianca (5). With 5 wheat, 5 sheep, and 3-4 ores in play, we can vest at least 3 of the remaining 5.

Punchy can't shoot anyone N5 if he's the lynchee D5.

 

[Synobun]

To cover absolutely everyone? No. But we don't need to cover Evan (7), don't need to cover Punchy (6), and reasonably don't need to cover Bianca (5). With 5 wheat, 5 sheep, and 3-4 ores in play, we can vest at least 3 of the remaining 5.

Punchy can't shoot anyone N5 if he's the lynchee D5.

One glaring issue here is that those with sheep can generate the extra ore needed for a gun if they are given wheat and ore for a vest. In particular, I'm the biggest risk factor in that regard. But the other person capable of doing this would be you (Arakhor) (since it'd be "cheapest" to give you a wheat since you already generate ore daily).

 

[Arakhor]

Well, if you gave me only one wheat to buy a vest, if I then channelled wheat/sheep into another ore, I'm still short the wood I'd need for a gun. You'd then have to either rely on me correctly voting to burn up that wood or refuse to entertain my wood offer, leaving me disenfranchised.

So, the safest thing to do is not to give me any wood at all, but is there really any point to someone being alive if they're deliberately being made vote-less (except to stop the scum from winning by parity)?

 

[Synobun]

Well, if you gave me only one wheat to buy a vest, if I then channelled wheat/sheep into another ore, I'm still short the wood I'd need for a gun. You'd then have to either rely on me correctly voting to burn up that wood or refuse to entertain my wood offer, leaving me disenfranchised.

So, the safest thing to do is not to give me any wood at all, but is there really any point to someone being alive if they're deliberately being made vote-less (except to stop the scum from winning by parity)?

Right now disenfranchisement isn't the biggest deal since the target is set in stone and there are an overwhelming number of votes for Evan. It would be a problem for D5, though... Vote generators are slim pickings now.

But yes, you're right. You'd be short.

I revise my observation, then: Giving me a wheat and ore would run the risk of me generating the extra ore for a gun. This risk exists only with me (it looks like).

So... cut me from the vest plan. 3 vests for 4 people.

My power right now is in sheep (I have 2) and in votes (I have 3). I can shoulder the burden on lynching Evan and leave myself open for the NK.

This does mean town loses vote power D5 since, besides myself, the only person who generates a vote every day is Marcher... and he just gets the one.

However, you and Csargo get 2 of opposite vote resources. You can both get a vote by trading 1 brick for 1 wood to each other.

A vest for you, Csargo, and Marcher. This leaves me, Bianca, and Gamezrule out (which means one of us dies N4). Evan gets no vest, and Punchy gets no vest due to presumed lynch D5.

 

[Synobun]

If Gamezrule gets both of Punchy's ores, then 4 people can be vested. That will probably be Gamezrule.

 

[Csargo]

Thank you!



Thanks! That matches up exactly with what Marcher's spreadsheet would imply for D4.

What do both of you think about the two proposed plans? Which do you find most preferable? Or neither?

1. Vesting everyone N4.

2. Propping Bianca up for another peek/vest N5 while someone else vests her N4.

Trying to vest everyone is hard imo, especially when everyone who has ore is in the PoE. Trading it to MJ or Bianca is best, but that's not realistic or a good strategy. I'd probably prefer 2 or force scum to shoot in the PoE by vesting my TRs honestly.

 

[Arakhor]

Of course, we might still lose anyway if we lynch Punchy on D5 and he turns out to be an even worse townie than I was, but he's currently amongst my top scum picks after Evan, so I can't say I'd be upset at guessing wrong if he is innocent.

We're also getting really close to that time when we can't rely simply on gut reactions to work out who to lynch, so it would probably be a good idea if we laid out who exactly we trust and don't trust and go from there.

 

[Synobun]

We're also getting really close to that time when we can't rely simply on gut reactions to work out who to lynch, so it would probably be a good idea if we laid out who exactly we trust and don't trust and go from there.

I estimate we'll get nowhere this way. We've all done something scummy.

Bianca is trusted, but who can seriously argue that she can "lead the field"? Up until this point, she's simply done what the loudest voice has told her to do.

Her peek was invaluable. And she is as close to lock town we can get. But she also can't be relied on to suss out the remaining targets.

Do we vest Bianca despite knowing she'll just listen to the first person who has the loudest voice? Vesting her makes sense if we're going for a peek N5, but not if we aren't. Her death, at this point, reduces the "confirmed town" pool to zero, yes, but in actual vote dynamics... it is not a significant loss.

As you've pointed out, unless mafia NKs someone with a vest, we lose if Punchy doesn't flip red D5.

Do we have anyone who is more suspicious than Punchy?

Can we leave Punchy alone after these steals by Gamez, and instead lynch someone else?

Who would be next after Punchy?

 

[Arakhor]

Gamez is a terrible lurker, who's made one-third of all his posts in this game just on D4 alone, but it's way too late in the game to be able to easily lynch someone for lurking.

Quite frankly, with your triple votes (and counting), Syn, if you are scum, we've already lost and we just don't know it yet. Bianca could still be a wolf, but that only makes sense if she could guarantee that she'll be the only wolf remaining at 2:1 (and it's very much a toss-up that we'll even get there so far).

 

[Synobun]

So you're split between Gamez and me for your "If not Punchy, then..." list.

Alright, fine.

What about everyone else? @Marcher Jovian, @GamezRule, @Csargo, if we can ensure Punchy is useless D5 and we can lynch someone else, who do you want to lynch? Hell, @biancasbotique, same question.

 

[Arakhor]

I'm not saying that we should bet the game on lynching you - not in the slightest, but in the world of tin-foil theories, you can hardly be discounted as scum.

Another possible candidate would be Marcher, who could easily have been lying about his resources all along, especially as he's been operating the spreadsheet, but I'm all out of realistic options in a hurry.

 

[biancasbotique]

Should I just unvote and save the resources for more votes tomorrow if things go bad?

Why do you sound so scummy?

 

[biancasbotique]

I agree..I need to clear someone in my mind during day 5 if I ever come to it...

If you trust me, please clear me from being wolf and build your world upon that.

 

[GamezRule]

I can indeed confirm that I have 1 brick, 1 wood, and 8 sheep, and that is all that I have. All 8 of those sheep are going towards steals tonight, 3 of which are on Punchy. I unvoted for the purpose of preserving two votes for tomorrow in case two people die tonight. Of course, I'm an easy, unvested target as well. I currently have zero ore, because as I stated previously I only produce one per day.

I traded today to get a vote, but since the decision is already made it is better for us to have an extra vote tomorrow.