Catastrophe Thread

Zkribbler

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It looks as it's going to be a hellacious summer. :scared:

The Mississippi River Valley already has unprecedented floods.

Now soon-to-be Hurricane Barry is closing in on New Orleans. For Nola, this will be a perfect storm. The ground is already saturated. Flood waters coming down the Mississippi are predicted to crest at 19 feet (just shy of the 20-foot levies). And Barry is predicted to be a "rain event" on the magnitude of Hurricanes Harvey and Florence.

Once Barry is finished with Nola, it will follow the Mississippi River north at least as far as St.. Louis, which is already flooded.
 
It looks as it's going to be a hellacious summer. :scared:

The Mississippi River Valley already has unprecedented floods.

Now soon-to-be Hurricane Barry is closing in on New Orleans. For Nola, this will be a perfect storm. The ground is already saturated. Flood waters coming down the Mississippi are predicted to crest at 19 feet (just shy of the 20-foot levies). And Barry is predicted to be a "rain event" on the magnitude of Hurricanes Harvey and Florence.

Once Barry is finished with Nola, it will follow the Mississippi River north at least as far as St.. Louis, which is already flooded.
The river has dropped quite a bit here in St. Louis compared to its height, but it's still up a few feet. I don't think many parts of the area are flooded.
 
How bad were those floods for agriculture in the US?

I have been wondering if we're going to see a repeat of the price speculation on agricultural commodities of 2008. That had a rather large political impact in some countries.
 
How bad were those floods for agriculture in the US?

I have been wondering if we're going to see a repeat of the price speculation on agricultural commodities of 2008. That had a rather large political impact in some countries.
The only thing I've been seeing is that farmers who've been unable to export due to the trade war have been storing as much of their crops as possible and the flooding has destroyed huge amounts of their stockpiles.

I'm not sure how thatd effect global markets since that was product that was already being priced out of the market. Its devastating to those individual farmers who were hoping to ride out the trade war.
 
How bad were those floods for agriculture in the US?

I have been wondering if we're going to see a repeat of the price speculation on agricultural commodities of 2008. That had a rather large political impact in some countries.
I think it is pretty unlikely. Ag prices are still relatively low* and drought does not appear to be on the horizon. Russian ag stocks are also looking good which takes some burden off of European/American stocks. Spot prices are going to be all over the place because of high water all along the Mississippi and the flooding in New Orleans leading to barge congestion.

*Current Hard Red Spring Wheat prices for September delivery are $5.42, about normal. Contrast to two years ago when there was significant drought in June/July in the Dakotas, which saw prices spike to over $8.00. Soybeans is all over the place, but that is more due to the on-again off-again trade war with China.
 
The only thing I've been seeing is that farmers who've been unable to export due to the trade war have been storing as much of their crops as possible and the flooding has destroyed huge amounts of their stockpiles.

I'm not sure how thatd effect global markets since that was product that was already being priced out of the market. Its devastating to those individual farmers who were hoping to ride out the trade war.

I hope they had insurance for those stocks.

The demand for soy in Asia is probably lower now anyway due to the swine plague there. That mess is going to take more than a few years to clear, if it goes as it did in Europe.
 
I saw a prediction we'd have a wet spring/summer a few months back, but we've hit our dry hot summer now. El Nino or La Nina, cant remember which.
 
I hope they had insurance for those stocks.

The demand for soy in Asia is probably lower now anyway due to the swine plague there. That mess is going to take more than a few years to clear, if it goes as it did in Europe.
Its funny but if their insurance covers the value of those crops that weren't exported due to tariffs it could be a blessing in disguise.

I have no idea how that works though.
 
Last update on what is now Tropical Depression Barry:

Tropical Depression Barry Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Barry's convective pattern in radar and satellite imagery has
continued to erode, and the center has become more difficult to
locate in radar imagery. Surface observations from the Shreveport,
Louisiana, area were helpful in locating Barry's position. Although
sustained surface winds of 34-36 kt have been occurring during the
past few hours at the NOAA NOS site at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana
(PACL1), those winds are not directly associated with Barry's
circulation and are instead locally accelerated straight-line winds.
Therefore, Barry's intensity has been lowered to 30 kt for this
advisory, making the cyclone a tropical depression.

The initial motion estimate is 360/08 kt. Barry is forecast to
continue moving northward tonight around the western periphery
of a deep-layer ridge, and then turn toward the north-northeast
and northeast late Monday into Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast
is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend
of the various consensus models TCVA, TVDG, and HCCA.

Barry will weaken further during the next 48 hours as the cyclone
continues to move inland, degenerating into a post-tropical remnant
low pressure system by Monday night and dissipating on Tuesday over
the Middle Mississippi Valley.

Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and the
potential for flooding, including river flooding, will continue from
Louisiana northward through the Lower Mississippi Valley.

This will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Barry. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding is expected along Barry's path
inland from Louisiana through portions of Arkansas, Mississippi,
southeast Missouri, and western Tennessee through at least Monday.
Significant river flooding is also likely across south-central
Louisiana.

2. Gale-force winds, especially in gusts, will be possible into
this evening over the coastal areas of southwestern Louisiana.
However, these winds are not directly associated with Barry's
circulation.
 
It looks as it's going to be a hellacious summer. :scared:

The Mississippi River Valley already has unprecedented floods.

Now soon-to-be Hurricane Barry is closing in on New Orleans. For Nola, this will be a perfect storm. The ground is already saturated. Flood waters coming down the Mississippi are predicted to crest at 19 feet (just shy of the 20-foot levies). And Barry is predicted to be a "rain event" on the magnitude of Hurricanes Harvey and Florence.

Once Barry is finished with Nola, it will follow the Mississippi River north at least as far as St.. Louis, which is already flooded.

Nothing predicted in my neck of the woods. Here in Edmonton, the worst natural disaster that has EVER happened in my lifetime (since 1976) or even my mother's (since 1951) was a freak tornado that came expected, out of nowhere, and entered part of city limits in 1987. Nothing else has come close.
 
It's probably going to get worse in near future. Last month there were unprecedented floods in Irkutsk region, Southern Siberia. Water level rose 10-14 meters in some rivers, one small town was washed away.
Scientists say it's likely related to global climate change.
 
It's probably going to get worse in near future. Last month there were unprecedented floods in Irkutsk region, Southern Siberia. Water level rose 10-14 meters in some rivers, one small town was washed away.
Scientists say it's likely related to global climate change.

Malarky! Everyone knows it the giant radioactive monster in Lake Baikal the Soviets had been trying to keep secret during the Cold War! :p
 
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