Cavaleiros Embassy & Intelligence

[damnrunner]

The proposed message sounds pretty good but it seems to me the constraining part will be how much gold the mad ones can generate. If they've been giving us all they can generate already then they won't be able to give more regardless of what they get in return.

I'm not sure, I think they could give a pretty good amount more. My understanding was that MS was financing both Team Cav and us - while at the same time storing up a decent amount of gold. If both Team Cav and MS are not running 100% gold - I think it is very reasonable for them to generate 500 extra gold per turn which they could send our way.

Giving us 2000 gold for 2400 beakers is pretty reasonable.

 

[cav scout]

Sent this to Slaze on team CAV:

General update. We get Oxford and tech econ next turn. Our plan is to revolt to Theo and Free Markets. Depending on a number of factors we will use the GM for either a golden age or a trade mission. Once we have Theo we will complete production on a number of units we have been holding in our build queues. We plan on running 100% tech and going for RP and Rifling. At 100% science this will take about 10 of turns. With a golden age it would take about 7 of turns.

We generally share your view about the benefit of attacking Sancta in a fairly short time frame - but as you said the issue is in the timing. Our biggest constraint is the cash we need to upgrade our fairly sizable army of catapults to cannons. This will require just under 2000 gold. We also have a number of other units that could be upgraded but do not necessarily have to be (Horse archers, xbows, maces, etc). We also need to move a few soon to be built units to the front line which will take about 3-4 turns. If we don't use the GM for a golden age we also will have a 2 turn delay due to anarchy. In short our primary limiting factor is the gold for upgrades.

MS has been covering our maintenance costs and we feel that it would be very acceptable to ask MS for the maximum amount of gold they can gift each turn. But, as you know, MS can be hard to communicate with and it is unclear what we will end up getting from MS. The main question we have for you is how much gold can you send our way in the next 5-10 turns or so. If we can get enough gold from you and MS we can use the GM for a Golden age - if not it will have to be used for a trade mission.

Our second question is what sort of forces can you commit to an attack and what time frame are you operating on? We think it makes the most sense for you to attack 1st and move into Sancta territory. We attack later and coordinate the timing so that both of our stacks can attack TKY and Zero respectively on the same turn.

Lastly, we wanted to confirm that you still intend of gifting captured cities.

 

[cav scout]

Response from Slaze:

Spoiler :

General update. We get Oxford and tech econ next turn. Our plan is to revolt to Theo and Free Markets. Depending on a number of factors we will use the GM for either a golden age or a trade mission. Once we have Theo we will complete production on a number of units we have been holding in our build queues. We plan on running 100% tech and going for RP and Rifling. At 100% science this will take about 10 of turns. With a golden age it would take about 7 of turns.

I'm leaning more toward the GA. It would be of greater benefit for Cav to have rifling (and RP for that matter - we have many windmills in anticipation) those few turns sooner. And i think we'll have enough money to cover most of the cannon upgrades (more on that later)

We generally share your view about the benefit of attacking Sancta in a fairly short time frame - but as you said the issue is in the timing. Our biggest constraint is the cash we need to upgrade our fairly sizable army of catapults to cannons. This will require just under 2000 gold. We also have a number of other units that could be upgraded but do not necessarily have to be (Horse archers, xbows, maces, etc). We also need to move a few soon to be built units to the front line which will take about 3-4 turns. If we don't use the GM for a golden age we also will have a 2 turn delay due to anarchy. In short our primary limiting factor is the gold for upgrades.

How many promotions do these catapults have? i'm wondering if this is the best use of our combined commerce. I have the feeling that what is of most importance is numbers, and any motley army will get the job done so long as there is enough of it (although, if your route is through the flatland to Zero, then you may want the cannon for stack defence. Pikemen are also a good hammer conversion to deal with cuirassiers; I'd make sure you bring enough of those.)

MS has been covering our maintenance costs and we feel that it would be very acceptable to ask MS for the maximum amount of gold they can gift each turn. But, as you know, MS can be hard to communicate with and it is unclear what we will end up getting from MS. The main question we have for you is how much gold can you send our way in the next 5-10 turns or so. If we can get enough gold from you and MS we can use the GM for a Golden age - if not it will have to be used for a trade mission.

I believe our income at 0% research was +175/turn last turn. We would like to secure enough reserve for an unfavorable event (game or Saturn created), and then we can supply all we can.

Our second question is what sort of forces can you commit to an attack and what time frame are you operating on? We think it makes the most sense for you to attack 1st and move into Sancta territory. We attack later and coordinate the timing so that both of our stacks can attack TKY and Zero respectively on the same turn.

Next time I log in I'll prepare the estimates and detail for the number of both our current and expected forces (and I encourage you to do the same for us). As we were "flying blind" in regards to detailed war plans, our general idea was to gather a force around a cannon being built in our capitol. The cannon was due in 4 turns (3 from the next turn) and needed roughly 8 turns to make it into Sancta-cultured land. So our general (and very adjustable plan) was to attack in 11 turns or so.

Lastly, we wanted to confirm that you still intend of gifting captured cities.

We certainly do.

 

[damnrunner]

So by attack as soon as possible they mean in a while. They wont be able to attack tky for 10 turns it sounds like. Lame.

 

[cav scout]

Just got this from Slaze regarding CAV's war plan:

Spoiler :

Of these units, 1 elephant, 1 musket, 1 knight and a 10xp chariot and an axe are near the saturn border. The rest are heading to sancta. If we attack with a stack timed with the Ohlo cannon we can comprise a stack of
6 cannon
7 muskets
5 knights
2 elephant
2 longbow
2 mace
1 axe
1 cata
1 pike

And this is the low end. We can do at least another six units with aggressive whipping. And if we attack in 11 turns or so, we will have rifling for maybe 3 turns, so some of those units could be rifles. The thing is, whipping is beginning to get very unfavorable in most cities, especially with the coming of replaceable parts. Also Sancta reads Printing Press in 2 turns and can probably acquire rifling close to the same time as kaz, and they have Nationalism on us which give far better hammer conversion rates than whipping

I pm'd him back asking when they can complete Nationalism and how much gold they would still be able to send us. I also updated him on SANCTA forces.

 

[cav scout]

Another exchange with Slaze:

Spoiler :

Thanks for the update. Since you guys aren't poised to attack right away the golden age is sounding better. How fast can you get Nationalism and what amount of gold can you still send us by the time you plan to attack?

Also, SANCTA has 3 knights, 2 horse archers, 1 elephant and 1 catapult on the hill
East of TKY. This seems to be the quick reaction force they have to flex between TKY and Zero. No change in their Zero garrison. We will continue to update you on the enemy situation as we get eyes on TKY and Dragon Tears.

We are currently @ 191/turn and growing, but if you set off the GA it may be wise for us to get Nat by the time your GA ends so you can switch into drafting. Nat would take us about 6 turns, 3 for the gold and 3 @ 100%.

But as long as MS has your maintenance we'll just stock up and make these decisions as we need to.

We were thinking the same thing about switching to Drafting before the GA runs out. Since MS can cover our maint we think Nat in 6 turns would work nicely. We will start our GA next turn. Can't wait to clobber SANCTA.

 

[damnrunner]

Another exchange with Slaze:

Spoiler :

We were thinking the same thing about switching to Drafting before the GA runs out. Since MS can cover our maint we think Nat in 6 turns would work nicely. We will start our GA next turn. Can't wait to clobber SANCTA.

Before we start the GA lets double check about nationalism. Won't it take one more turn (after they tech Nationalism) for them to gift us Nationalism? It would really suck if we are not able to switch civics before the GA runs out.

I am not totally sure about how the mechanics of drafting work. My understanding is -3 happiness and -1 pop for each unit. Max of 3 drafts per turn. Can only draft in cities with barracks. Questions: are these units less experienced, and must cities be a certain size in order to draft?

We should do some prelime math to work out how many units we can expect to draft in what time frame.

I imagine drafting is something we will heavily use in our more marginal recently built cities. But even our more developed cities can probably afford 1 round of drafting. It can also be used to defend Haz and Aktua in case of a naval attack. This will free up a lot more units to go to the front line.

 

[cav scout]

http://www.civfanatics.com/civ4/strategy/drafting.php

We really aren't geared too well for drafting, the only city that really fits the bill right now is Kzyl. Maybe Petro and Taraz after they get some population. Drafting anywhere else would be counter productive. Happiness is already a problem for us now so drafting would just exacerbate that. And loosing the Bureau bonus for Haz would be PAINFUL.

I wonder if there is a way we could manage one round of drafting and then switch back to Bureau before the GA ends? Probably not.

 

[damnrunner]

We also benefit a lot from Bureau bonus for Haz during the GA. My understanding is that we can't switch civics more than once every 5 turns anyway.

I think we can do one round of drafting in our more productive cities as well. For example Shym and Osk are working unimproved tiles anyway right?

 

[damnrunner]

Just to clarify our thinking. We can draft 1 unit in each city with no happiness issues. Under Nationalism each barracks is +2 happiness. We will also lose 1 unhappiness from population for each whip. That will cancel out the +3 unhappiness from our 1st draft in each city.

I think we draft 1 unit in each city - even in Haz. So we lose out on working a sea tile - that is really not so bad.

My thinking is that we switch to nationalism on the final turn of our golden age. Once we have rifles we begin drafting and drop the tech rate down to 0%. We will be at war at this point and will probably need the cash ( putting commerce into ESP may also be wise). Also we won't be generating so much commerce without Bureaucracy.

We run Nationalism for 10 turns during which time we draft all of our cities at least once and when appropriate multiple times. After 10 turns I think we should be able to draft ~20 redcoats. after 10 turns of drafting we switch back to Bureaucracy and deal with one turn of anarchy.

I'll try to work out the math tomorrow, but if it takes 10 turns to burn off the unhappiness from drafting the 10 turns of nationalism +1 turn of anarchy should give plenty of time for big cities (like Haz) to draft and recover their happiness before we switch back our civics.

 

[cav scout]

I think 20 redcoats is too optimistic. 10 in a 10 turn periods seems more realistic. You can't draft a city below pop 5 and so right now that rules out Taraz, Petro, Baikonur and Atyrau. Shym isn't working any unimproved tiles.

I would only want to draft Shym, Aktau and Haz once. We could get a couple out of Oskemen, Pav and Kzyl but you really dont want to draft a city more than once in a ten turn cycle unless its an emergency, it can become crippling. Finally, we could maybe get one out of Atyrau after it grows.

Is 7-10 redcoats worth the opportunity cost of the civic switch and the pop/happiness hits? Probably.

 

[damnrunner]

We need to send a message to team Cav. How does this sound. It should probably go out asap.

From your last note we understand that you will be ready to declare war 9 turns from now. And a tile count shows that your army will have about 5 more tiles to traverse to get to TKY. That totals 14 turns from now which would be turn 161. We are working out our war plans and firm date on this would be incredibly helpful.

We are a bit concerned that attacking in 14 turns may allow too much time for Sancta to tech cannons/grenadiers/rifles. We can also expect an upcoming GA from the Taj. At this point it looks like they are going for rifles which will be very annoying since they have the ability to run a massive draft. Our estimate is that in 10 turns we could have an offensive stack of about 30 units. With another 10 coming shortly thereafter. This involves a lot of drafting and some slaving, but we think the faster we can attack the better. So our first question would be if it is at all possible to speed the attack date?

A second concern is the follow up to the initial attack. Our initial war aim is to raze Zero and see TKY and Dragon Tears captured. After that we can reassess. But even if we don’t push on, we will need a lot of units to counter the expected Sancta counter attack. You are planning on using the draft and sending substantial follow-up support right?

A third concern is the relative value of our units. We will have much lower production after the GA ends and we will only be able to draft about 25 redcoats before massive unhappiness sets in. Those 25 redcoats will be a powerful force, but until we can get captured Sancta cities up and running you and Sancta can both draft and build far larger armies much faster than we can. For this reason we are going to be fairly conservative with our stack as we can’t really build a 2nd one if we lose it. Also greater proximity to Sancta means that if our stack is killed Sancta units could very quickly overrun our core cities. If we get in a situation where some cannon fodder is needed we hope that you are willing to sacrifice a few of your units for the greater good. Later on, we will also be happy to gift you a few of our veteran redcoats should you need them for the border with Saturn.

 

[cav scout]

Sent the above note to Slaze of team CAV.

 

[cav scout]

Just got this from Slaze, looks like they DoW'd SANCTA:

In case you get this first, we declared this turn. The only force we brought was two guerilla II muskets and the purpose was to view/control a tile, maybe entice a battle at very favorable odds etc. (and we stole a worker in doing so). I think the element of surprise is gone; it's pretty clear to all what's going to happen. The only element left unknown (to some) is the issue of when. And here's a screenie for you guys to chew on.

Spoiler :

Your numbers from above are a little off. This is more what we had in mind and we'd prefer not to stray too far from this schedule so if you could agree to this plan that would be great.

We're on pace (with some road building left to do and if TKY doesn't border pop) to move to the barren plains hill tile our muskets are on on turn 158, 960 AD. Due to the playing order, if you we're to enter onto a Zero-adjacent tile on turn 159, then on Sancta's turn 159 they would have to deal with our combined stacks at once.

We currently see Sancta on pace to get Chem in 4. It's very possible that they're going GS crazy (we did) and will pop one soon enough to get Chemistry like next turn. That gets them fairly close to Military Science and maybe they have the Taj close to completion and then they start whipping out grenadiers and such.

But given our timeframe, I don't think they'll have enough time to make much difference when it comes to TKY and Zero. Dragon Tears maybe, but even then we're talking about the combined force of our two nations; I think, as long as we communicate well and join together, it's going to be alot for Sancta to handle.

Where is their siege? So far their only double promotion troops are the knights coming every 2 turns from Sanctum. They don't have religion spread to utilize Theology effectively. I think they could catch up with some of the technology in those 9 turns (we'll have to watch and communicate that carefully) but won't be able to put it in the field, at least not initially.

Lets just take it one turn at a time but if you can raze Zero and, if the culture spread allows it, road (bring workers) yourself into the hills of Dragon Tears with some guerilla II redcoats I think we're in great shape. I still think they should go RP>Rifling and draft some and get Saturn on our tail, but we'll see - maybe that's closer than it seems.

So here's where were at, let us know if it's good.
And it would sure be nice if you could send over RP for our windmills asap.

 

[damnrunner]

And it begins!

We should send a message back - I'll work on something and will post later today.

 

[damnrunner]

Proposed message to Team Cav.

Thanks for the more specific time frame. Those dates should work for us, but we need to run some numbers before we know exactly what size force we will have ready by then.

Our previously experience with Sancta was that they would attack with weaker units 1st and then follow up for the kill with more advanced and/or veteran units. They had great success with this tactic and were essentially able to trade archers and chariots for our maces and elephants. It was not pretty. Also, expect them to be insanely lucky, we are still not 100% convinced that they have not found a way to game the system for slightly better combat odds.

Espionage – How are you doing with spys? We have one slightly north of TKY now and coordinating spying would be pretty useful. We are also looking into what sort of financial commitment it would take to gain a sufficient espionage advantage on Sancta to allow us to view their cities and units.

Taj – it would be great to deny this wonder to Sancta, but it does not seem very possible. We could work on it in our capitol – but once we switch out of Bureaucracy our product there really won’t be all that great. Also we need our capitol for units. You don’t by any chance have a well forested city that could quickly chop and slave the Taj do you.

Just to update – we get Rifles in 3 turns.

 

[damnrunner]

We should of course share RP with Team Cav but once we share Sancta gets a boost when they start research on it. If we wait for 3 turns and give both RP and Rifles does that make more sense. Of course either way Sancta will get the benefit after 3 turns.

It’s probably best to just share RP now.

 

[cav scout]

CAV got pwned: both of their guerilla 2 muskets on the hill were killed- with zero loss to SANCTA...

Slaze wanted the latest update on SANCTA forces, he too is wondering where the cats are. Gifted them RP. MS wanted it as well for lumbermills so gifted to them also.

Sent him Damnrunner note above.

 

[damnrunner]

Knights with pinch would work out to knights @ 13.5 (10+10%+25%) vs. musketmen @ 15.75 (9+50%+25%). Again it is possible but highly unlikely.

Damn they are lucky. No catapults because they always win with whatever units they have anyway!

 

[damnrunner]

Looks like the odds were actually only about 60-40. This is an awesome utility. I think it is fairly accurate.

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=148354