I find this to be really annoying. All other great people have a specific number attached to them in order to generate them. In my last 2 games (as Egypt and Celts) I missed my prophet by a few turns because of this "chance" and it resulted in me suffering. I have no idea if the AI has this same "chance" but it just really irks me. With Egypt I missed the 3rd religion by 4 turns, by which time I had over 250 faith with only +5 per turn. I wasn't too annoyed in that game because the first 2 religions had taken the beliefs I wanted anyways, but to miss the 3rd 1 and lose Monasteries was still slightly annoying. The game as the Celts was much worse, after a good start with 1st pantheon on turn 5 I thought I stood a decent chance at getting first religion, but after 3 turns of being over 200 faith I ended up 1 turn short and settling for 2nd best. Mosques were gone... I know most people rate Pagodas as better but it was just so frustrating to be denied what I wanted because of the "chance" to generate a prophet. Is there a reason behind this that I am unaware of? Or is it just something that the developers decided upon randomly?