China, first to come out of the recession?

[devilhunterred]

“China, which has the world's third-biggest economy, is weathering the global slowdown better than many nations because its banks were largely unscathed by the financial crisis.”

“"The government's stimulus is working," said Louis Kuijs, a senior economist at the World Bank in Beijing. "China's fundamentals are strong enough to ride out this storm."

“China is 'strong enough' to ride out recession's storm with €437bn plan”. Independent. ie Business. 23 Mar. 2009. <http://www.independent.ie/business/world/china-is-strong-enough-to-ride-out-recessions-storm-with-8364437bn-plan-1677924.html>.

"I think China will come out of this a lot quicker and a lot stronger than people suspect," Mr. Smith (Chief executive of Newcrest Mining Ltd.) told a business lunch on Wednesday.

"There's a driving social imperative in China, and as we all know they can mobilise very quickly when they want."

“China will be back stronger: Newcrest”. 9MSN News Finance. 23 Mar. 2009. <http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=787970>.

China's stimulus spending will help its economy overcome the global recession sooner than the US and other countries, investor Jim Rogers said.

"I certainly expect China to come out of it sooner than the US," Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said in an interview. "They seem to be spending the money on the right things. China is doing a far better job than the others."

"I plan later this year to get out of the rest of my US dollars," he said. "It's had an artificial rally too but it's a terribly flawed currency. The US is printing money as fast as it can and that's always throughout history led to currency problems down the road."

Rogers on June 30 advised investors to avoid the dollar "at all costs" as the US economy slows. He reiterated the stand yesterday and said it's difficult to make money on the dollar unless the investor is actively trading the currency.

“Rogers: China to overcome recession first”. China Daily Business. 23 Mar. 2009. <http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2009-03/10/content_7558045.htm>.

“Even so, China does have a number of advantages over the UK and the US.
It has a banking system that is a long way from bust and has the capacity to lend substantial sums to cash strapped businesses.

Also China's public finances are pretty healthy, so the Chinese government can splash out on rail links and bridges and other big projects that create substantial employment and income for suppliers.

In other words, China's government has probably warded off the kind of severe slump that is afflicting so many other economies and it may be able to continue to do so.

And I suppose what struck me was that Wen Jiabao, prime minister of this one-party state, was possibly more alive to the problems ahead than his opposite numbers in many entrenched democracies.

While I was in Beijing he gave a characteristically epic speech to the National People's Congress. Two hours of densely argued economic analysis presented to 3,000 delegates.

Even if in terms of delivery it was something of a soporific, its account of how to fix China's economic and social woes was more cogent, sophisticated and even - perhaps - more honest than what you will hear from most mainstream Western politicians.”

Peston, Robert. “Testing times for China’s economy”. BBC World News. 23 Mar. 2009. <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/7937773.stm>.



There is no questioning how severe the recession is hitting the Chinese exports, affecting employment rate and especially the rural countryside as the masses of immigrant workers are incapable of sending checks back home. However leading economists around the world mostly agree that China also has the most potential of coming out of the recession earlier than everybody else due to its relatively intact domestic market, strong banking system, its heaps load of money in the reserves and its massive holdings of foriegn assests. Prime minister Wen Jiabao's economic policies are not too shabby either.

Back in late 2008, much of the world was looking to China to lead them out of the upcoming 2009 recession. If China can come out of the recession first, there's a big chance this may come true or in the very least offset a large portion of negative effects on the rest of the world.

 

[RedRalph]

China has not gone into recession.

 

[devilhunterred]

China has not gone into recession.

True, as China is (correct me if I'm wrong) the only country right now that is actually still experiencing economic growth.

But because of how export dependent China's economy is, the global recession is hitting China just the same. Most world economists believe China has the ability to recover from these hits very soon though.

 

[gangleri2001]

China has not gone into recession.

QFT

tenchar

 

[JerichoHill]

No, that's not true. China has experienced ramifications of the global recession and its growth rate has suffered (it is an export driven economy). Further, China still has major structural issues in its economy. It's a fairly closed economy still, so you can't really judge its performance alongside other countries where markets are more open and less controlled by the government. Two different things.

 

[gangleri2001]

No, that's not true. China has experienced ramifications of the global recession and its growth rate has suffered (it is an export driven economy). Further, China still has major structural issues in its economy. It's a fairly closed economy still, so you can't really judge its performance alongside other countries where markets are more open and less controlled by the government. Two different things.

Really? Then what are all those predictions that say that China will grow a 8% this year?

 

[devilhunterred]

No, that's not true. China has experienced ramifications of the global recession and its growth rate has suffered (it is an export driven economy). Further, China still has major structural issues in its economy. It's a fairly closed economy still, so you can't really judge its performance alongside other countries where markets are more open and less controlled by the government. Two different things.

I can hardly see the US economy as being less controlled by the government with all the current bailouts.

China? No bailouts so far.

 

[devilhunterred]

Really? Then what are all those predictions that say that China will grow a 8% this year?

World Bank puts predictions on about 6.5%. It's still growing, that's all it matters.

 

[RedRalph]

No, that's not true. China has experienced ramifications of the global recession and its growth rate has suffered (it is an export driven economy). Further, China still has major structural issues in its economy. It's a fairly closed economy still, so you can't really judge its performance alongside other countries where markets are more open and less controlled by the government. Two different things.

but it's economy is still growing, so it's not in recession, unless I have been grossly misinformed about the meaning of the words "Economy", "Growing", "Recession", and "Is"

 

[ArneHD]

but it's economy is still growing, so it's not in recession, unless I have been grossly misinformed about the meaning of the words "Economy", "Growing", "Recession", and "Is"

It is growing less than expected, and I believe that the Chinese themselves have stated that Chinas economy has to grow at least 8% to prevent social unrest.

 

[RedRalph]

It is growing less than expected, and I believe that the Chinese themselves have stated that Chinas economy has to grow at least 8% to prevent social unrest.

nobody is denying that, but that dosent mean they are in recession.

 

[Narz]

China, first to come out of the recession?

Seems unlikely. They're dependent on Western consumers buying junk from them at a high rate. And last I checked they had thousands of factories closing "per week".

At least they were one of the few nations smart enough (and little concerned with "PC") to control their population.

People think growth is going to come back online as "normal", that unlimited growth is the "natural" cycle of things. It's amazing even now no one is questioning this.

China is likely much more self-sufficient than the US in terms of materials & manufactured products (though we have more coal) but they're economy is even more dependent on exports than ours. China is absolutely dependent (more so even than any other state) on exponential growth & the era of exponential growth is over (can be prolonged a bit longer with creative bookkeeping & robbing from the future but this will create more pain later).

All these "stimulus" packages remind me of injecting steroids into a starving bodybuilder to make up for lack of food.

 

[devilhunterred]

Seems unlikely. They're dependent on Western consumers buying junk from them at a high rate. And last I checked they had thousands of factories closing "per week".

At least they were one of the few nations smart enough (and little concerned with "PC") to control their population.

People think growth is going to come back online as "normal", that unlimited growth is the "natural" cycle of things. It's amazing even now no one is questioning this.

China is likely much more self-sufficient than the US in terms of materials & manufactured products (though we have more coal) but they're economy is even more dependent on exports than ours. China is absolutely dependent (more so even than any other state) on exponential growth & the era of exponential growth is over (can be prolonged a bit longer with creative bookkeeping & robbing from the future but this will create more pain later).

All these "stimulus" packages remind me of injecting steroids into a starving bodybuilder to make up for lack of food.

Actually much of your concerns have been answered in the sources I have provided above. Just go to the links.

 

[devilhunterred]

It is growing less than expected, and I believe that the Chinese themselves have stated that Chinas economy has to grow at least 8% to prevent social unrest.

It was 7%.

But the social unrest won't be as severe as the west think, and nowhere near at the level of threatening CCP's legitimacy as some radicals believe.

Social unrest during a financial crisis? It's much expected.

 

[Azale]

nobody is denying that, but that dosent mean they are in recession.

By the standards of the Chinese economy of the last 10 years (maybe the last 20), it is in an economic downturn. It needs to grow somewhere between 8-10% or there will be 3 million Chinese unemployed per year roaming the cities (which is why the government is trying to coax some of them back into the countryside). It's a potential for serious social unrest.

Sure, it's not a typical recession, but the Chinese work by a different set of parameters.

 

[RedRalph]

By the standards of the Chinese economy of the last 10 years (maybe the last 20), it is in an economic downturn. It needs to grow somewhere between 8-10% or there will be 3 million Chinese unemployed per year roaming the cities (which is why the government is trying to coax some of them back into the countryside). It's a potential for serious social unrest.

Sure, it's not a typical recession, but the Chinese work by a different set of parameters.

Look, I accept they are being affected, I accept it hurting them, even the CCP accedpts that, but its still not a recession.

 

[Red Door]

By the standards of the Chinese economy of the last 10 years (maybe the last 20), it is in an economic downturn. It needs to grow somewhere between 8-10% or there will be 3 million Chinese unemployed per year roaming the cities (which is why the government is trying to coax some of them back into the countryside). It's a potential for serious social unrest.

Sure, it's not a typical recession, but the Chinese work by a different set of parameters.

http://www.kyivpost.com/world/38212

That looks like 11 million to me.

Look, I accept they are being affected, I accept it hurting them, even the CCP accedpts that, but its still not a recession.

You sound like your sparring partners on these forums with this frequent repeating of what exactly is a recession.

 

[devilhunterred]

http://www.kyivpost.com/world/38212

Kyiv post? That looks like a pretty unreliable small time newspaper to me.

How about using an article from BBC, Guardian Post or some creditibe world major news source? Like I have used above.

 

[Red Door]

Kyiv post? That looks like a pretty unreliable small time newspaper to me.

How about using an article from BBC, Guardian Post or some creditibe world major news source? Like I have used above.

It's Reuters dude.

 

[Ecofarm]

China has fake money (total control of exchange, child-slave labor and a complete absence of enforced environmental regulations both social and ecologic). The govt can pretend anything it wants. They don't even have a real/free press; I'll have a little interest in their affairs when they do.

Till then, upsize/cost the military and align yourself with Putie for all I care.