China now third largest economy in the world

[Shaihulud]

I have to say as one who has some knowledge of China (My family has a factory in China) that the country does have very strict enviromental management, its a pity however that the officials are all so corrupted. A little money in the pocket will pass a factory through any enviromental checks, baring accidents, then it becomes more expensive.

From my casual observation, China did improved enviromentally since the early 90s. The Meijiang river that was super polluted was cleared and drdged of rubbish, huge swathe of land were reforested. People in China do care about the enviroment, but its a slower thing to educate and to show 1.2 billion person... alot of people would rather be richer I think the young ones are more enthusiastic about the enviroment. China isn't likely to collapse any time soon either.

 

[Fayadi]

Instead of comparing it to Vietnam, how about we compare it to countries of similar economic development levels?

It will increase CO2 output more than Kyoto will reduce, in total.


http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2008/03/forecasting-the.html

Check out this article:


http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/science/10/27/what.matters.huai/index.html#cnnSTCText

I don't care what their policy says on paper. That's the reality.

Anyone want to keep pretending that everything is skippy, cutting trees is illegal and dumping is harshly punished? Individuals might be harshly punished, but the government and its companies do so unfettered.

I neither deny that there is a serious environmental problem in China nor pretend that everything is ok in China. It is a big country of course it does have many problems. I was merely refuting to the claim that there is lax environmental law in China specifically. Ok I concede you are half right there except that the strong law exists but just not enough teeth to enforce it. My point is that we cannot expect China to do too much in regards to environment when it is only a developing country(Of course it still is as long as its GDP per capita has not reached $15,000)

The top leaders from the central government did press the issue of environmental problem many times and the guidance to solve it is also included in the Five year plan. So I would not say they do not want to fix the environmental problem or they do not want its environmental law to be enforced. They face bureaucracy problem in which the local officials think that it is not a big problem and widespread corruption in regards to passing environmental check.

History has shown that once a country's GDP per capita touches $15,000-$20,000 then it will be doing its proper "homework" in cleaning up the environment and protecting it. So please do not "single-out" China for its sin when USA, Great Britain got to burn and mess up the environment all they want at its early stage of industrialization. Yes China is still in industrialization stage by its GDP per capita.

All I am saying is that the Chinese government is still doing a better job than other developing countries government which has GDP per capita similar to China. It is reasonable for us not to expect it to fare the same as First-World countries government in tackling environmental issue when all other developing countries has a weaker environmental law and probably has a worse enforcement in carrying it(as many developing countries has an even more corrupt government than the Chinese government)

I concede that the Chinese government could have put in more effort which could perhaps set up environmental law and enforcement method as advanced as the EU for example but protecting the environment does not come free. I am not sure whether China as a developing country can afford that
. I sincerely hope for sustainable growth instead of "growth at all cost". Unfortunately reality often limit options. Factories pollute because they do not have the choice. If an owner can choose either a clean factory or a polluting factory at the same cost to build and operate, who in their crackpot mind would want to run the polluting factory? Economic growth to developing countries and its people is a matter of survival. Environmental protection to them is viewed as a "luxury".

 

[Elta]

I heard the reason they started working on cleaning up so much last year was because the health minister said that it would be more cost effective to clean up the environment-pollution, than to deal with the health cost caused by the pollution.

Either way I am pretty sure that they are improving every year, except on building so many coal plants. Though the U.S. is no saint in that department either so who am I to talk.

 

[Fayadi]

That is 2007 China's GDP number. Now for 2008 number:


http://www.interfax.cn/news/7978/

Shanghai. January 22. INTERFAX-CHINA - China's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 9.0 percent year-on-year to hit RMB 30.07 trillion ($4.49 trillion) in 2008, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced on Jan. 22.

However, the growth rate of the country's GDP in the fourth quarter of 2008 stood at 6.8 percent, down from the 9.0 percent growth rate recorded in the third quarter.

Fixed-asset investment and retail sales both grew rapidly in China last year, with fixed-asset investment up 25.5 percent on an annual basis to RMB 17.23 trillion ($2.52 trillion) and retail sales up 21.6 percent year-on-year to RMB 10.85 trillion ($1.59 billion).

Jiang Jiantang, head of the NBS, said that growth of China's imports and exports soared in 2008, although the rate did tumble in the fourth quarter due to a shrinking international market and plunging prices of primary products worldwide. China's import value shrank by 8.8 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter, while export value increased by 4.3 percent year-on-year.

Overall, China's trade surplus amounted to $295.5 billion last year, up by $32.8 billion from 2007.

Meanwhile, industrial output from all state-owned and privately-owned enterprises with annual sales revenues exceeding RMB 5 million ($731,154.49) grew by 12.9 percent year-on-year in 2008, representing a 5.6 percentage point decrease from 2007.

China's consumer price index (CPI) over 2008 increased by 5.9 percent on an annual basis, which is 1.1 percentage points higher when compared with the growth recorded in 2007. In December alone, CPI growth stood at 1.2 percent.

Food prices registered a 14.3 percent year-on-year rise in 2008, which played a significant role in pushing up CPI, while housing prices increased by 5.5 percent.

The producer price index (PPI) rose by 6.9 percent on an annual basis, up 3.8 percentage points when compared 2007's growth, although in December, China's PPI dropped by 1.1 percent compared to December 2007.

Prices of raw material and fuel jumped by 10.5 percent over the January to December period, which was the major factor behind PPI growth last year.

Monitoring of 70 medium and large-sized cities in China showed that real estate sales prices grew by 6.5 percent year-on-year in 2008, although growth was 1.1 percentage points lower when compared with 2007. In December alone, real estate sales prices dipped by 0.4 percent from the same period in 2007.

China's GDP is hovering at $4.4 trillion.
Japan I think has a GDP at around $4 trillion plus at year 2007. Apparently, the Japanese government has not released any figure for the 2008 GDP. So no way we can know whether China has overtaken Japan as the world's 2nd largest economy in nominal GDP. If Japan's GDP moves at 0% (as what will happen to a developed country in a recession), China has officially overtaken it too.

It is pretty impressive that the government has compiled the entire 2008 number faster than all the other big countries. This is what happens when a government is run by technocrat engineers rather than whining politicians . One of the reason is also Chinese companies (like mine)have to file their tax report every month rather than half or once a year.

 

[Roller123]

Why are these numbers important. They sure have some info, but in our time of globalization you have to look at the bigger picture. Which would be - one country falls, all others do as well. Or who is gonna consume all the made-in-china stuff. Certainly not Chinese. In case of complications i can imagine Germany to start producing more.. shoes, but i cannot imagine China start to purchase more of them. Set a higher tax on imported shoes - China is done.

 

[innonimatu]

It is pretty impressive that the government has compiled the entire 2008 number faster than all the other big countries. This is what happens when a government is run by technocrat engineers rather than whining politicians . One of the reason is also Chinese companies (like mine)have to file their tax report every month rather than half or once a year.

No, that's what happens what a government is run by shameless liars in a hurry to post some feel-good propaganda. China's current GDP numbers cannot be true. And I'll wait (about one year should be enough) and see.

 

[Godwynn]

I'm more worried about GDP per capita (PPP) and the Gini Coefficient than absolute GDP in nominal terms.

 

[Fayadi]

No, that's what happens what a government is run by shameless liars in a hurry to post some feel-good propaganda. China's current GDP numbers cannot be true. And I'll wait (about one year should be enough) and see.

Uhmmm. Have you been to China? Coastal cities like Shanghai already have a superior infrastructure than New York City and London.

Also as an owner for a food and beverage franchise in Shanghai, I don't see a declining consumption pattern even after the global financial crisis. China is one of the only few countries in the world that doesn't have a liquidity crisis at this period of global credit crunch.

If you think the GDP numbers are lying, probably you should read the reports of international investment consultants who are still upbeat about the Chinese economy. Big Three auto is losing money in its US operations, but is making money in China. That surely proves that Chinese market is not "phony".

I'm more worried about GDP per capita (PPP) and the Gini Coefficient than absolute GDP in nominal terms.

China already overtakes Ukraine in terms of GDP per Capita (PPP) and its GDP (PPP) absolute value is at 7 trillion.



Maybe I will stop You people will accuse me of spreading propaganda.

 

[Dachs]

If you think the GDP numbers are lying, probably you should read the reports of international investment consultants who are still upbeat about the Chinese economy.

Hahaha, consulticks.

Big Three auto is losing money in its US operations, but is making money in China. That surely proves that Chinese market is not "phony".

No, it proves that the Chinese market wouldn't know a good car if it ran them over, backed up and ran them over again.

China already overtakes Ukraine in terms of GDP per Capita (PPP)

Pardon me if I say that that's not the greatest feat in the world.

Maybe I will stop You people will accuse me of spreading propaganda.

I personally think it's refreshing.

 

[kronic]

It's not news that the validity of official Chinese figures are often questioned. That's why other ways of measurement are sometimes used to estimate GDP growth. Apparently, there is a high correlation between electricity output and GDP growth. And electricity output plunged by 7 % in Q4 2008...

Here's something from Roubini on the situation in China:

The Chinese came out today with their 6.8% estimate of Q4 2008 growth. China publishes its quarterly GDP figure on a year over year basis, differently from the U.S. and most other countries that publish their GDP growth figure on a quarter on quarter annualized seasonally adjusted (SAAR) basis.

When growth is slowing down sharply the Chinese way to measure GDP is highly misleading as quarter on quarter growth may be negative while the year over year figure is positive and high because of the momentum of the previous quarters’ positive growth. Indeed if one were to convert the 6.8% y-o-y figure in the more standard quarter over quarter annualized figure Chinese growth in Q4 would be close to zero if not negative.

Other data confirm that China was in a borderline recession in Q4 and that it may be in an outright recession in Q1: production of electricity plunged 7.9% in y-o-y basis; the Chinese PMI has been below 50 and close to 40 for five months now. And with manufacturing being about 40% of GDP , manufacturing is certainly in a sharp recession (negative growth) and the overall economy may be close to a recession. So the 6.8% growth was actually a 0% growth – or possibly negative growth – in Q4; and the Q1 figures look even worse. So China is in a recession regardless of what the highly massaged official numbers claim.

So Roubini claims China is in recession...

I took the Roubini quote from this article: http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/economics-and-demography/china-nears-recession-point-as-gdp-slumps/

http://fistfulofeuros.net contains quite a lot of relatively recent assessments of many major and non-major economies. If anyone is interested.