China willing to go to war to stop democracy!

[Double Barrel]

Chinese Officers Warn That Taiwan Referendum Could Lead to War

By JOSEPH KAHN
December 3, 2003
New York Times

BEIJING, Dec. 3 — Chinese military officers said today that Taiwan's leadership had pushed the island toward the "abyss of war" with its independence drive, making clear that China would consider a popular vote on Taiwan's political status as cause for war.

In lengthy interviews carried prominently by the official New China News Agency and other news outlets, the military officials also said that China would prevent Taiwan from formally declaring independence even if that meant pushing the mainland economy into a recession or destroying its plans to be host to the 2008 Olympics.

"Chen has reached the mainland's bottom line on the Taiwan question," said Luo Yuan, a senior colonel with the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences, referring to Taiwan's president, Chen Shui-Bian. "If they refuse to come to their senses and continue to use referenda as an excuse to seek Taiwan independence, they will push Taiwan compatriots into the abyss of war."

Maj. Gen. Peng Guangqian was quoted as saying that the mainland would attack without hesitation if Taiwan sought a formal split. "Taiwan independence means war," Mr. Peng said. "This is the word of 1.3 billion people, and we will keep our word."

The comments were the most strident in a barrage of explicit threats directed toward Taiwan in recent weeks by mainland leaders, and they may indicate a decisive shift in Beijing's approach to managing Taiwan affairs.

For the past several years, China has sought to downplay what it considers political provocations by Mr. Chen. Beijing has courted Taiwanese businessmen and promoted economic integration between the two adversaries, which have been politically divided since the Communists won a civil war in 1949, hoping to create a broader popular constituency in Taiwan that favors eventual reunification.

But mainland leaders, who regard Taiwan as a renegade province, now seem alarmed that softer cross-Straits diplomacy, and China's preoccupation with its extensive leadership transition, may have sent the wrong signals. They have now resumed making bellicose threats whenever they see Mr. Chen tip-toeing toward the edge of declaring independence, the kind of aggressive posturing that some American officials fear could spiral into armed conflict.

At issue is whether Taiwan will hold some kind of referendum, possibly in tandem with its presidential elections in March, that would broach the delicate subject of sovereignty.

Mr. Chen, fighting a tough battle for re-election, has promoted just such a referendum to invigorate his supporters, many of whom favor formal independence from the mainland.

The issue appeared to be defused last week, when Taiwan's Parliament, controlled by the main opposition party, stepped back from a direct confrontation with Beijing. The legislature passed a bill that would permit referendums on constitutional and sovereignty issues, but only under narrow circumstances. The law denies the president the authority to call a referendum on such issues himself, except in matters of national defense.

But Mr. Chen said over the weekend that he saw the law as giving him leeway to organize a referendum because doing so "would protect our country's sovereignty." He did not elaborate, but Mr. Chen has argued in the past that Taiwan must take active steps to protect its de facto independence against encroachment from the mainland.

Chinese military officers do not write articles or speak out in official interviews without clearance from the highest levels, and the comments of General Peng and Colonel Luo were clearly orchestrated to send the firmest possible message about China's agitation ahead of a visit to Washington next week by China's prime minister, Wen Jiabao.

General Peng listed the Olympics, loss of foreign investment, deterioration in foreign relations, economic slowdown or recession and "necessary" casualties by the army as costs China would willingly bear to reunify the mainland. He belittled the idea that China would not dare use military force against Taiwan in advance of the 2008 Olympics, which it campaigned for many years to play host.

The officers are directing the comments at the United States as well as Taiwan. Beijing officials and analysts say the Bush administration needs to take a firmer line against Taiwanese independence, an issue Mr. Wen seems certain to press during his meeting next week with President Bush.

Source

Key Quotes:

"...the military officials also said that China would prevent Taiwan from formally declaring independence even if that meant pushing the mainland economy into a recession or destroying its plans to be host to the 2008 Olympics"

"Taiwan independence means war," Mr. Peng said. "This is the word of 1.3 billion people, and we will keep our word."

General Peng listed the Olympics, loss of foreign investment, deterioration in foreign relations, economic slowdown or recession and "necessary" casualties by the army as costs China would willingly bear to reunify the mainland.

So, you China loyalists still believe that our economic ties will keep them in line??? They are willing to kill people and possibly start a world war to prevent democracy, and some of you folks still believe that we can trust them???

To be so naive is scary.



China is our enemy until they prove otherwise.

 

[Knight-Dragon]

Their issue is that they want to reunify what they see as the proper Chinese motherland, using whatever means possible. A land that was splited apart by the Western powers and Imperial Japan, and Qing weakness; an issue that's still hot with many Chinese.

Reminds me of much the same as pre-WW2 Germany trying to get back its pre-WW1 territories in Europe. We are know where that has led us...

 

[Aphex_Twin]

I thought Taiwan would be more willing to maintain the status quo (as in de-facto independence). What do declarations mean theese days?

 

[Simon Darkshade]

Warm up the Tridents, it's Red season.

 

[thestonesfan]

Originally posted by Double Barrel

So, you China loyalists still believe that our economic ties will keep them in line??? They are willing to kill people and possibly start a world war to prevent democracy, and some of you folks still believe that we can trust them???

To be so naive is scary.



China is our enemy until they prove otherwise.

While I am not a Chinese loyalist, I still see the possibility of China invading Taiwan to be very slim.

Taiwan is far from a Kuwait. Or even a South Korea. They have a huge army and up-to-date hardware. Obviously, China will not use nukes. Chinese losses would be immense.

 

[Simon Darkshade]

It is not obvious that the Red Chinese would not resort to use of nuclear weapons under all circumstances, or if they saw it as strategically helpful to them. They are already going to lose majorly in the court of international opinion by attacking in the first place, and as has been mentioned, their capabilities are not 100% suited to such an operation. As such, increasing their odds and capabilities through the use of unconventional weapons cannot be ruled out.

As punitive measures, dispatch naval task force of two or three carriers to the area to fly the flag, whilst staying a certain distance off. Accelerate the plans for basing a carrier at Pearl Harbour. Make a show of readying bombers and deployment capabilities, and even have some media events at new weapons tests to serve as a pointed reminder. Get some television shots of a few dozen bombers, and many more fighter bombers in the sky as propaganda, as well as footage of submarines leaving unspecified ports. Move more Patriots to Guam and Hawaii, as well as accelerating fielding of naval based ATBM defences. Leak a story about a proposed major arms deal with Taiwan, including the AEGIS vessels they asked for previously. Overall, up the ante, and show preparedness and willingness to go to war if necessary.

Edit: Further, before we war-war, we try to jaw-jaw. Send over Jimmy Carter leading a delegation of elder statesmen and diplomats, and conduct talks. Back up the talking and diplomacy with the aforementioned strength, and make it clear that even bothering to talk first is not a sign of weakness.

 

[ShiplordAtvar]

Here's my $0.02 on the matter. The Chinese government is doing this mostly as an exercise in saber rattling. They are rational enough to realize that a non-nuclear invasion of Taiwan would easily be thwarted by the Taiwanese alone, let alone considering the help they would have from the USA. They make empty threats against Taiwan in order to placate internal voices who want to crush that evil renegade province led by those dastardly Nationalists.

Instead of seeing China grow in size and population by annexing Taiwan, I'd rather see them shrink by letting go of Tibet.

 

[luiz]

The current chinese government won't invade anyone. They are too concerned trying to make chinese economy remain growing. However, China is a dicatorship, and as such the change in governmet can mean the complete change of orientation. The same way that things changed when Mao died and Xiaoping took over, things can change whenever a new leader arises(Even though most maoists were killed by Xiaoping)

 

[Kinniken]

Originally posted by luiz
The current chinese government won't invade anyone

I would like to believe so, but... I think it is reasonable to believe that they prefer the current status-quo to an extremely damaging war, and would rather continue with an economic growth that they know will increase their power relative to Taiwan. As things are going now, Chinese leaders have reasons to believe that in maybe twenty years they will have the military might to invade Taiwan (assuming no US intervention).
However, if Taiwan declares independence or is seen as being on the verge of it, things changes radically. Wether the Chinese leaders would be ready to accept the dramatic loss of face of letting Taiwan get away with it is extremely hard to say; the risk that Chinese leaders would gamble on US neutrality and attempt to conquer the island or at least force it to go back to the status-quo is high.

 

[thestonesfan]

You have a good point about the nukes, Simon. I wouldn't rule it out.

Kinniken also raises an interesting point - why would China invade now, when their military is scarcely a match for even Taiwan's? Their armed forces are only getting better.

That said, an invasion is not really necessary. Taiwan is a little island - they could not support themselves for long. They may have naval dominance now in the area, but how long would that last?

 

[luiz]

You make sense Kinniken, but China would put it all to lose in a war. And they have much to lose. Perhaps in 30/50 years they will be able to fight even against the US, but certainly not now.

 

[Amenhotep7]

Taiwan's pretty small, and China has a military of 2.2 million...Does Taiwan have enough men to thwart that? China would in no way use nuclear weapons. Why? Because so many would frown upon them. Trading Sanctions, and possible international military action against China! China especially doesn't want trading sanctions, and if they don't want that, they shouldn't invade Taiwan.Plain and simple.

 

[thestonesfan]

Taiwan has a lot of people on that small island. They could quickly arm well over a million soldiers, I believe. And, they have been training to repel a Chinese invasion for 50 years.

 

[Amenhotep7]

Taiwan has a lot of people on that small island. They could quickly arm well over a million soldiers, I believe. And, they have been training to repel a Chinese invasion for 50 years.

Wow...Power to the little guy! No, China is slowly slipping out of Communism, ever since Xiaopeng...Many slightly capitalist reform have been made, and there was a near revolution somewhat recently...Then the govt had to go slaughter all the freedom-fighters in Tianmen square. If China does become a Republic or Democracy, Taiwan would surely rejoin...The prospect of a free Tibet is interesting, but not likely...

 

[Kinniken]

luiz: The problem is that you are assuming that they will chose the rational response. If Taiwan does not move toward independence, China has no reason to bulge and almost certainly won't. However, where Taiwan to declare independence, how can we be sure that the rational Chinese leaders will prevail? Remember Tiananmen... Hardliners in the Chinese government panicked and sent the army. I can very well imagine the same thing happening again, especially if the Chinese population demand it - which it probably will.

 

[Amenhotep7]

Oh, it's Tiananmen...Yeah, Kinniken, but if it does go to war, it will most certainly receive international pressure, and perhaps trading sanctions...China would crumble under it's own weight, er, actions...

 

[Simon Darkshade]

Originally posted by thestonesfan
That said, an invasion is not really necessary. Taiwan is a little island - they could not support themselves for long. They may have naval dominance now in the area, but how long would that last?

Allow the ChiComms to acquire several more Kilos, and the possibility of submarine blockade enters the equation, and changes this strategic equation, and the options for the US and Taiwan.

Taiwan has a large and capable military, but has basically completed its modernization and change from its old arsenal; China is still fairly early on in its similar process. The gap, if allowed to, will only close in China's favour.

There is, as always, a great deal of statements being raised which look at matters from an outside, and indeed Western perspective. The Red Chinese leadership does not automatically think this way. There has not been a seachange in the leadership in regards to how it approaches power and questions of international relations and grand strategy.
The mandarins are still the hardline communist elite, and the military is still a very significant factor. A few younger technocrats as window dressing does not change what is in the shop, and what is in the backroom and upstairs. The doctrine, and armament, of the military does not point to a warfighting strategy which eschews special weapons as beyond the pale.

It can be argued that they would be willing to risk international sanctions, on the basis of the points raised by XIII earlier, and the gambit that the world cannot live without the big market of China; in the long term perspective, a few years in the wilderness followed by a return to the fold would be an acceptable set of circumstances.

The risk of US military intervention, which is the only international military intervention that would occur or have any impact, is a different matter, particularly the extent that the US is willing to go to. In that case, it would be hoped that the very small Red Chinese capacity to attack the US would serve as a deterrent to any more than a token show of force, in combination with the aforementioned economic carrots.

Ambiguity and weakness are not the correct response to such threat. Clear decisive action and policy are required, backed up by a big stick and the will to use it. As part of this, drastic measures should be preemptively leaked, including full trade embargos on China, the freezing and/or seizure of Chinese assets in the US, the compulsary acquisition of Chinese US treasury bonds, pulling out investment (with a few cases going ahead as a show of intent), and other means of hurting Red China economically, and diplomatically.

If the Chinese do attack Taiwan, then Taiwanese use of special weapons would be extremely possible, providing another trigger to an unconventional ChiComm response, or even being used as an excuse using subterfuge and maskirovka.

 

[Kinniken]

Originally posted by Amenhotep7
Oh, it's Tiananmen...Yeah, Kinniken, but if it does go to war, it will most certainly receive international pressure, and perhaps trading sanctions...China would crumble under it's own weight, er, actions...

China might very well pay very dearly a war with Taiwan, especially if the US intervenes. But even if ends up with a severe defeat for China, a massive war between nuclear powers is hardly something to look toward to.
As for trade sanctions, they cut both ways - while they would wreck China's economy, they would also severally damage those of the rest of Asia, the US and the EU.

 

[Amenhotep7]

Hmm...So it's a win-lose situation...But if China were to bomb the US, then I think China wouldn't stand a chance...US allies would be attacking China from all sides...WWIII?

 

[thestonesfan]

Good post, Simon.

I wonder if this will ever be resolved without a tremendous war.