Civil War in Iran

[hobbsyoyo]

That might have something to do with western invasions of two neighbouring countries...

On the OP, the protests seem quite sporadic and small scale, and I expect they will fizzle out rather than escalate.

I mean I love a good game of whataboutism as much as everyone else but this doesn't add or take away anything from my statement.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

D'ump and his drunken propaganda minister over at Breitbart are trying to spin this up as a 'civil war.' By their reasoning western democracies should have invaded the US a half dozen times to "restore the freedoms" of protesters since last January.

 

[Katie88]

I mean I love a good game of whataboutism as much as everyone else but this doesn't add or take away anything from my statement.

Please learn what whataboutism means.

My point is that much of the 'terrorism' you referred to is in fact Iran providing aid, whether in money or matériel, to groups resisting the western occupations of neighbouring countries, which can even be seen as a form of self-defence.

 

[Katie88]

Thinking about this a little more, there's a notable difference between these protests and the 2009 ones. In 2009, people wanted their votes to count in electing a reformist candidate; they wanted to work out their frustration within the confines of the Iranian system. The régime showed that it was prepared to compromise in 2013 by allowing a reformist candidate to win. And that administration has really tried to liberalize the economy and society to meet the 'Green' Movement's' expectations.

But it hasn't been very successful, and has been impeded in many ways by the hardliners, the result being that Iran still has a large number of well-educated but unemployed young people with access to western media and norms who are deeply frustrated and are now starting to look outside the system for answers. This is exacerbated by economic problems, including a banking collapse that caused many to lose their savings. In 2009, they chanted 'Where is my vote?'; now, they're chanting 'Death to the dictator, Death to the Islamic republic', 'Not Palestine, not Lebanon, my life only for Iran', and even 'We are Aryans; we don't worship Arabs'. That's pretty radical stuff. And even though I think the protests will fizzle out, I wonder how the régime will put the genie back inside the bottle in the medium term.

 

[r16]

ı think ı got a ton of viruses from a link on Zheng He , but then this post needs a contribution . Like the claims that the "hardliners" started the stuff to push the reformists to their agenda and lost control . And because Qatar needs Iran and Qatar owns New Turkey , all the PR is supporting is Iran . Things to see , things to see ...

 

[red_elk]

Ironically, Hezbollah now helps to clean up Syria from ISIS and Al-Nusra terrorists.
As well as from "moderates" supported by the US and Saudi Arabia.

 

[Snerk]

The new thing in this wave of protests is that people are now voicing more criticism against the Islamic republic, the clergy, and the Iranian theocracy in general. Iran was on a democratic path before the western backed coup d'etat. Shouldn't be impossible to retrace that path in Iran. After all it's easier to do something that has been done before than something completely new. USA and Israel remains by far as the most useful recruitment arguments for the Islamist hardliners at work. But even Netanjahu and friends will face some fatigue over time in their usefulness to Iranian conservatives. Sure Rohani is a moderate and to some extent a reformist. But he's still very much a part of the conservative ruling class in Iran, and the people are starting to realise this. I'm cautiously optimistic, considering that the protests has been met with more tolerance from Rohani than protests under Ahmadinejad. Nonetheless democratic progressive reforms are probably not the most likely outcome of these protests, at least not in the short term. Long term, well..

 

[Katie88]

Ironically, Hezbollah now helps to clean up Syria from ISIS and Al-Nusra terrorists.
As well as from "moderates" supported by the US and Saudi Arabia.

Hey, hey, I think you're forgetting that Al-Nusra (Al-Qaida) are "moderates" now.

 

[Hrothbern]

I think it is very much a domestic Iranian unrest of young well educated and informed people because of domestic Iranian issues.

Trump just using this as distraction for his Jerusalem move, as if tightening up with Israel is needed because of Iran.
The withdrawal of diplomatic money to Pakistan and Palestina in general fitting to Trump's foreign policy, also timed for this moment to get more general distraction of the Jerusalem move.

 

[Katie88]

I think that's a good assessment. Trump is certainly using it as a distraction, and of course the usual neocon suspects in the media and commentariat are cheering on wildly. But I don't think the protests are astroturfed. They look like genuine expressions of frustration from a section of the population.

 

[Broken_Erika]

Ha! Even Iran is jumping on the Blame Hillary clown-wagon.

The general blamed anti-revolutionary agents, pro-monarchists and forces which he said had been "announced by [US-ex Secretary of State Hillary] Clinton to create riot, anarchy, insecurity and intrigue in Iran".

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42556729

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Please learn what whataboutism means.

My point is that much of the 'terrorism' you referred to is in fact Iran providing aid, whether in money or matériel, to groups resisting the western occupations of neighbouring countries, which can even be seen as a form of self-defence.

What about the emails though?

 

[Broken_Erika]

Please learn what whataboutism means.

My point is that much of the 'terrorism' you referred to is in fact Iran providing aid, whether in money or matériel, to groups resisting the western occupations of neighbouring countries, which can even be seen as a form of self-defence.

What about the emails though?

BAAAAAAAAAAAANNNNNNNNNNNNNGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAZZZZZZZZZZZZIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[onejayhawk]

Ha! Even Iran is jumping on the Blame Hillary clown-wagon. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42556729

Finally, a Hillary accomplishment. To bad it's as fictional as the rest.

BAAAAAAAAAAAANNNNNNNNNNNNNGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAZZZZZZZZZZZZIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Good point. She did managed to escape that fiasco.

J

 

[r16]

now , did ı ever say Donald Trump is an idiot ?


but then they will now claim the suppressed the Revolution for the duration because they are to be busy with a more pressing thing , hence Trump and Netanyahu openly supporting .

so , the Iranians have a gap of 100 billion dollars during the reign of Ahmedinejad , the humble Shia . So , the moderate President openly says the Revolutionary Guard takes 3 times more money than the Armed Forces of Iran . 'Cause they can't just stop fighting in Syria and Yemen , the Pasdaran returns to the bunch that sides with Ahmedinejad and tells them to crank up some . Yeah , pro-Shah chants , 22 dead , stuff . Revolutionary Guard openly names the ex-President , and yeah .

while , New Turkey , a place a couple of those billions might have ended , is so angry at the US with a court ruling that finds a bank manager guilty . The verdict to be declared in April , might see another year before more A-K-P people can be convinced to surrender to the US . Which is the real farce , you know , considering Washington will never do anything against the New Turkey ...

 

[caketastydelish]

The general consensus between me and my Iranian American family is we hope for a regime change for democracy but we also wish Trump would shut up and stay out of it. Both of those are probably too good to be true, though.

 

[Ajidica]

The general consensus between me and my Iranian American family is we hope for a regime change for democracy

Not to put too fine a point on it, but by the standards of the region Iran stands out as a half-decent democracy. Even when compared against all other countries I would rank it as a better democracy than, say, Russia, and probably better than Turkey.
Plus, the BBC was reporting that some of the anti-government protestors were supporting a return to monarchy or military rule. While it wasn't clear if this was any more than a few wierdos, the "Arab Spring" taught us not to be too hasty in labeling anti-government movement as pro-democratic.

but we also wish Trump would shut up and stay out of it. Both of those are probably too good to be true, though.

I have to wonder what dingus is letting him tweet about America giving support to the protestors. It is like Middle East 101 to NOT discredit protests by letting the government paint it as an American plot.

You also got dinguses like this guy who used to be on the NSC and proposed arming the protestors with IEDs because "Iran did it to us in Iraq, and a few protests are exactly the same thing as a civil war". Lawfare tends solidly toward the right, but this was so bad the editor was forced to issue an apology. That a guy who even thinks this was a good idea for even a moment was let anywhere near the NSC makes me grateful that for all his other foreign policy flaws Obama was able to avoid what seemed an all too imminent war with Iran.

 

[Kyriakos]

^Good to hear that Turkey is a democracy now Maybe you mean as in 'has elections', ie much like Egypt is also a democracy.
Also, i think that US posters are way too dismissive of Russia. Russia is, in most respects, integral to european culture, far more than (say) US is.

 

[AdrienIer]

The general consensus between me and my Iranian American family is we hope for a regime change for democracy but we also wish Trump would shut up and stay out of it. Both of those are probably too good to be true, though.

My bet is that neither of those things will happen

 

[Borachio]

^Good to hear that Turkey is a democracy now Maybe you mean as in 'has elections', ie much like Egypt is also a democracy.
Also, i think that US posters are way too dismissive of Russia. Russia is, in most respects, integral to european culture, far more than (say) US is.

Plutocracies of the world unite, I think.

Let's face it, any system that in practice requires a presidential candidate to be very rich indeed (if not a billionaire) is hardly a democracy.

Still, the word "democracy" seems to be a very flexible one. With all sorts of unlikely people and nations claiming it for themselves while refusing it for others.