Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by onejayhawk, Mar 23, 2016.
At any rate it looks like Trump does a lot better than Romneybot
If nothing else, Trump appears to have truly ignited new voters and white surge, and Hillary clean sweeps seem impossible now.
I don't know about a surge, but turnout is very good. If nothing else the electorate is engaged in this election. As predicted it is very close. Trump may be doing a shocking upset in Virginia, one of the firewall states. Add that to NC and FL and he could surprise me.
Florida will be close. Johnson may have polled a nader lol
well, he definitively did. Because whether it goes trump or clinton, he obviously took more from trump
Trump's percentages of winning based on betting market and models are surging.
Still early, but with Trump leading in FL, NC, OH and Virginia...Suddenly it doesn't look very good for Clinton...
^Maybe the landslide for Hillary polls were not very good?
That said, it seems that the Winner takes all system can still give Hill a (even large?) margin. Yet i don't think anyone was talking about Trump winning the race before now.
Alright. Nobody wants to say it but
Trump is winning
^I don't know, cause they have a winner takes all system in virtually all their states, so if one of the two takes most of the few "swing states" they just win anyway, no?
That said, it looks like Trump can (?) win, which is an upset already i think.
This will prove my predictions about the US and NATO
Why am I not surprised? Both for him winning, and for the continued state of denial. Here and in the media.
what where those?
It depends what you mean by 'winning'. Because yeah, he has more votes at the moment, including in some important states. But 538 still have Clinton at 73%, New York Times have her at 67%. These are mathematical models looking at the vote data, as I understand it. They aren't just evaluative punditry. I think a more meaningful sense of 'winning' can only really be used once some of the swing states are actually getting closer to being called.
Edit: NYT literally just changed to 51% for Trump, so there is now a mathematical/objective basis on which to say that Trump is winning.
I thought 538 wasn't projecting anymore. Any links? Thank you.
They have a live 'election night' model on the side of their live blog page. Republicans up to 70% chance for the Senate now. I haven't looked into it much, but it appears to be updated whenever a state is 'called' - so it's perhaps not taking into account e.g. Trump's lead in Florida, but will only take Florida into account once it's actually been called.
They're not. They adjust their model when ABC calls a state but that's it.
Hm, if Trump wins, i think there will be more chaos cause (regardless of what was said) i think the other side also will riot.
Political Predictions thread.
Broward County in FL now at 75%, the lead for Trump is still holding...Time to call it, perhaps?
Several betting markets and models are now projecting Trump the winner
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