Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by onejayhawk, Mar 23, 2016.
Yeah - he has had Ohio at 538 for a while and Florida has been considered as a true toss up.
The Clinton firewall doesn't include those states.
Lol. Sorry for taking the opportunity to rub this in, but you did a Comey u-turn there m8
Anyway, would a REALLY REALLY REALLY close vote be more trouble or not?
I mean i think neither will immediately concede then.
Oh absolutely, no argument there. White americans are violent, stupid and racist, by and large. I say this as a white person.
Ohio yes, 538 had Trump ahead in Florida until Monday, then Clinton edged in front in their prediction to have a 53% chance of winning. Without Florida, Trump loses 95% of the time, so while it's a must win for him, Clinton has more options without Florida.
Those options, though, involve winning Michigan & Wisconsin, which are looking surprisingly competitive in a way which the polls didn't really pick up.
Polls definitely failed big time on this election, and on Brexit...What's going on?
No need to qualify your statement, it's 100% true to those who bother to realize.
Not really - the polls aren't that far off the national vote. There might be a bit of variance in a couple of states, like Michigan & Wisconsin, but overall the polls aren't showing massive error.
Clinton must win VA, WI, and MI to win.
Georgia and Arizona still not called should be a worry to Trump
Georgia hasn't been called because, although Trump has a very healthy lead, the vote is being counted slowly.
Results only just started coming in for Arizona.
That is the same for a lot of Clinton states such as MN, PA, and WI
Yeah, that's true too. Which means I think the upshot is that neither camp should really be worrying too much at the moment. It's not particularly productive, and is based on quite scarce information.
This looking like the best map for Clinton. Need to win MI and WI and PA.
edit: ARGH, can't get the map to work.
Yeah - this feels much like a typical election night to me. Probably clear up in about an hour.
Holy ****, this is a weird night. Brexit, Trump, seriously?
I'm not super partisan but I don't even know. This isn't healthy, somewhat respectable conservatism here. It's something ****tier.
Re 538's live prediction - it appears they might have two forecasts - one is what updates in the right-hand column of their live blog whenever a state is called. The other appears to periodically be posted in their blog feed, e.g. there was one just posted which says the 'model' now predicts a 55% chance of victory for Clinton in Michigan.
Edit: actually it appears it's the one model, but they've fed 'too close to call' into it as a call, which they haven't done for Florida. That drops the overall chances of Clinton to 60%.
No offense, but that's easy to say for someone who doesn't have to live here.
There's an argument that the US President has more power in the rest of the world than they do in the US, but yeah, fair enough, that's probably why. I'm invested, but it's probably easier for me to watch from the sidelines.
This just adds to the reasons why I hate the Midwest.
Separate names with a comma.