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[RD] Clinton vs. Trump - USA Presidential race.

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by onejayhawk, Mar 23, 2016.

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  1. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    That's a fair perspective, though at the time the widespread sense that the US had directly interfered in the House of Saud maintaining power after the death of King Khalid seemed to cause as much offense as boots on the ground ever would.

    I went to school (1980) with some low level royal Sauds that the navy was training, and they seemed pretty convinced that without the US they wouldn't be able to maintain the monarchy. If the people who wanted the monarchy out felt the same way they did then their resentment of the US started way before the first gulf war.
     
  2. Camikaze

    Camikaze Administrator Administrator

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    It's not a prediction, it's just a map of what a 10-11% victory would look like, if that were to happen, from his twitter. It probably assumes uniform swings, though it must take into account demographics because he said that Trump's rust belt strength would help him keep Missouri & Indiana.
     
  3. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Super Moderator

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    I thought the one posted 12 hours before was much funnier. :)

    "What if women refuse to vote for Trump."

     
  4. Commodore

    Commodore Deity

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    Random thought on Trump: Could his success thus far be a result of him understanding that we live in the age of the internet troll? Think about it: Who are the most popular people in any unmoderated or poorly moderated community? The trolls. Who are some of the most popular and successful YouTubers? The ones who dedicate their channel to videos of them making fun of people or being insensitive to others. Trump understands this, which is why his whole campaign has been nothing more than him acting like a real-life internet troll. The other candidates don't understand that we no longer live in an age where civil discourse is respected. The internet has turned the world into a place where the one who shouts the loudest and comes up with the snappiest insults is the one who wins the hearts of the people. Trump gets this and embraces it; while the other candidates struggle to resist the Age of the Troll.
     
  5. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    What makes you think it is an act?
     
  6. Commodore

    Commodore Deity

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    My meaning behind that was that he recognizes we now live in an age where people like him can let their troll flag fly proudly. No longer will the rude, ignorant, or obnoxious be shunned; hell they'll actually be placed upon a pedestal. They can now feel free to crush anyone who tries to defeat them with logic by just slinging insults, half-truths, and outright lies. And they can do all this to the thunderous applause and raucous laughter of the masses. This is the environment in which a man like Trump can thrive.
     
  7. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    CNN just cited a poll (and I didn't catch who did the poll) showing that 47% of REPUBLICAN women say that they will not vote for Trump under ANY circumstance. So, this particular "what if..." is not so far fetched.

    EDIT: :lol:

    Went looking for the poll and found that Drumpf is currently sporting a net favorability with women of MINUS THIRTY NINE. For contrast, right before the 2012 election the Romney campaign was wrestling with the "major problem" that Mittens was burdened with a net minus TWO.
     
  8. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I'll sit with you

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    I think your theory has a lot of merit, but the best way to test it is to see how the general election turns out. If Trump wins then it will be strong evidence that indeed, obnoxious behavior is rewarded by the majority. On the other hand if he loses, it will be evidence that maybe the adoration of the obnoxious is limited to a minority of folks. I've been saying all along that Trump isn't the President America needs, but he is the President we deserve. It sounds like your theory is more refined expression of that sentiment.
     
  9. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    I've read such a theory before on Scott Adam's blog. :crazyeye:
    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/141090636816/donald-trump-con-man
    Entirely true.

    I can't count the number of people I know who were scared into not voting for someone.
    Attack ads work.
    Ugly tweets work too.

    Obama showed that qualifications don't matter.
    The Presidency is truly a popularity contest now.
     
  10. Berzerker

    Berzerker Deity

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    Obama's qualification: opposed invading Iraq
    McCain and Mitt? Supported the invasion
     
  11. Bootstoots

    Bootstoots Deity Retired Moderator

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    Ah, that makes more sense.

    The thing about the US election map now is that Obama's 2008 map is almost as extreme as it can get for anything up to double-digit margins. Taking the 2008 map (where he did win IN and NC) and adding 5 more points to his margin in every state adds only Missouri and Montana to his column, and almost adds Georgia but not quite. His margin was already 7 points; at 12 points, the popular vote would be more lopsided than the 1980 Reagan vs Carter race, which ended with Carter getting only 6 states and 49 EVs on a 10-point loss. We just aren't as elastic as we used to be.

    But I'm still holding out hope that maybe Trump can manage to swing some solid red states blue and produce a nice, soothing-looking electoral map. I will say that, given Hillary's poor favorability ratings, we're really lucky that the Republicans seem to have been trying to find people who might still manage to lose big to her. :lol:
     
  12. CavLancer

    CavLancer This aint fertilizer

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    The Troll Party is emerging. What next. I will dedicate 1/1,000,000th of my spare time on Tuesdays to trolling them.
     
  13. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    Except it doesn't. You would need about a 20% national margin to sweep in either color. Even that would not do it for Republicans because of Washington DC.

    The 2012 map is for a race decided by 3.8%. That's fairly normal. The Democrats had great turnout numbers. The Republicans had mediocre to poor turnout numbers. The Democratic candidate was an incumbent. All factors considered it was a fairly close race. Obama got every close state except North Carolina.

    We should not expect a repeat in November. Whatever else the primary race has shown, one thing is clear. New ground is being plowed.

    J
     
  14. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    And sown with salt.
     
  15. JollyRoger

    JollyRoger Slippin' Jimmy Supporter

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    What we should expect is that the new close states will be places like Georgia and Arizona. Clinton will clean up on the Obama states and North Carolina by a comfortable margin.
     
  16. _random_

    _random_ Jewel Runner

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    So Monmouth put out a poll showing presumptive Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson receiving 11% in a Clinton v. Trump scenario. It could just be a fluke, but I'm definitely intrigued by what it could mean. And also a bit worried, because a Libertarian wouldn't be much better in my estimation.
     
  17. Zkribbler

    Zkribbler Deity

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    I am gobsmacked that 11% of Americans had even heard of Johnson, let alone would vote for him. I'm also surprised that a libertarian candidate would take more votes from Clinton than from Trump.
     
  18. Camikaze

    Camikaze Administrator Administrator

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    I don't think that poll demonstrates that 11% of Americans have heard of Johnson. It more likely shows that 11% of Americans would, at this moment, be happy to vote for <generic third party> over Clinton or Trump.
     
  19. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    Which is why head-to-head polls are worthless at this point.

    J
     
  20. _random_

    _random_ Jewel Runner

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    Given that many people who would otherwise support Clinton are down for that, I'd be interested to see if the Greens have a strong showing.
     
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