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[RD] Clinton vs. Trump - USA Presidential race.

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by onejayhawk, Mar 23, 2016.

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  1. Lexicus

    Lexicus Deity

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  2. GoodEnoughForMe

    GoodEnoughForMe n.m.s.s.

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    General election polls in May are generally not great indicators, historically speaking, but the data wonks I've read have said various polls will likely demonstrate a close race at times, and that a landslide is probably unrealistic, but that Hillary is still a favourite.
     
  3. Lexicus

    Lexicus Deity

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    Well that's more or less what the article says.
     
  4. GoodEnoughForMe

    GoodEnoughForMe n.m.s.s.

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    Yeah, something you won't find on TV right now. There's a real grasping for polls from Fox and CNN and MSNBC that's really a disservice to the accuracy of polling right now.
     
  5. Lexicus

    Lexicus Deity

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    Have to take your word for that one, I don't watch TV at all.
     
  6. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    Nobody wants to say "Clinton beats Trump about the same as Obama beat Romney, which is about the same as generic Democrat beats Generic Republican...which demonstrates that this whole primary season of frivolity was good for ratings and not a lot else." That is the reality, however. Having Trump at the top of their ticket may cost the Republicans some senate and house seats that a non-idiot might not have cost them though.
     
  7. Archbob

    Archbob Ancient CFC Guardian

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    I mean I'm all for it. We need to retake the senate
     
  8. Terxpahseyton

    Terxpahseyton Awake

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    A common phenomena in voting is that when you are dead sure your site will win, you are less enthusiastic about going to vote. And Clinton doesn't strike me as a candidate anyone is enthusiastic about to begin with. On the other hand, when it looks like your site will loose but you desperately want it to win, you are more enthusiastic about voting.
    Moreover, many previous non-voters may be Trump voters.

    May skew polls a bit in Clinton's favors when compared to an actual election.
     
  9. Berzerker

    Berzerker Deity

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  10. Zkribbler

    Zkribbler Deity

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    :faint: Where have you been for the past 1/4 of a century?
     
  11. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    That's a steep hill to climb.

    He's correct.The campaign is referred to as a public proctological examination. Mrs. Clinton has not yet received hers.

    J
     
  12. Berzerker

    Berzerker Deity

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    she hasn't faced a withering assault from the Trumpster
     
  13. Gucumatz

    Gucumatz JS, secretly Rod Serling

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    Late chiming in, but Warren never was in a position to be that serious of a competitor for the nomination. Like Sanders, she appeals mostly to a young, white, northern crowd --- which is not enough to win the Democratic primary. If you were to pit her significantly older self 8 years from now against someone like a Julian Castro, she would lose in an even bigger margin than Sanders lost this election [The Democratic primary is only going to get less and less white over time]
     
  14. Lohrenswald

    Lohrenswald 老任森林

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    Does anyone reckon that this could have a significant impact on the election?
     
  15. Flying Pig

    Flying Pig Utrinque Paratus

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    It says that it will only go into effect when the signatories make up a majority of the Electoral College, and they currently make up 30%. I'm going to say that they probably won't get there before the election, and that even if they did, it's quite unusual, speaking over the long term, to win the presidency without the popular vote. I mean, it never happened in the 20th century, happened 3 times in the 19th, and once in 2000.

    That said, I like the idea. If it did manage to get itself over the 50% line, it would effectively end the focus of candidates on 'swing states', because a vote in any state would count equally towards the goal of winning the popular vote, and the EC majority that would come with it. Interestingly, the states that would be best served by it (that is, the states with the highest ratio of population:electoral college votes, with a side thrown in of the most securely red and blue states) are quite a diverse bunch - Texas, California, New York and Florida fall into the first bracket, joined by the likes of Utah, Alaska and Hawaii from the second. That's quite a coalition.
     
  16. Lohrenswald

    Lohrenswald 老任森林

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    I can't believe I missed that part...
     
  17. AdrienIer

    AdrienIer Deity

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    If you add the states who are going to vote on joining it in this legislative session they make up exactly 269 EV, which is just 1 short. So it won't happen this election but could happen in 2020
     
  18. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    There are two things that do not make sense here. One is that most of the voters are white, around 70%. If you believe that "race" matters, she would fare better as a candidate than any "non-white". The other wrong thing is that if race mattered, how come a black guy won already?
    I have this suspicion that americans invoke race too often, often as an excuse to support unrelated wishes or points.

    There's a third thing wrong also: Sanders is very nearly tied as it is, and he started with less name recognition. So much for not enough to win the Democratic primary?
     
  19. Arakhor

    Arakhor Dremora Courtier Moderator

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    Uh, Sanders is something like 300 delegates behind Clinton. In what world is that 'very nearly tied'?
     
  20. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    In the "but I hate Clinton SOOOOOO much that votes against her count double" world. In J's world any vote against Clinton counts 10X.
     
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