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[RD] Clinton vs. Trump - USA Presidential race.

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by onejayhawk, Mar 23, 2016.

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  1. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    I don't hate Clinton, I fear what she may do with the power of the office she's aiming at. But that is not the point here...

    The point is that 54% - 46% is near. And It'll get nearer before it ends.
     
  2. metalhead

    metalhead Angry Bartender

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    It most certainly will not. The territory friendly to Bernie has all but vanished. Oregon and Kentucky will be a wipeout in Hillary's favor. New Jersey will be a rout. Even if California is close, she is likely to win there.

    54-46 is considered a considerable margin of victory in every other election in history besides this one.
     
  3. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    We shall soon see how it turns out.

    Mind you, predictions of Hillary's invincibility are getting increasingly questioned...
     
  4. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    LOL...the Clinton haters are hilarious. In another thread they are talking about how she got crushed by Obama 52-48, and here twice the margin is "nearly tied" since she is on the opposite end.
     
  5. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    I must agree with everyone else, it's not near enough. Sanders has won 10 of the last 15, or something similar, but he is far down in every relevant metric--committed delegates, super delegates, popular vote, endorsements. He has made it interesting but that is all. It would take an act of God, like 1968.

    J
     
  6. Kennigit

    Kennigit proud 2 boxer

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    Yes. May God Strike Hillary Down

    K
     
  7. Archbob

    Archbob Ancient CFC Guardian

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    God would strike Trump down first before Hillary.
     
  8. Kennigit

    Kennigit proud 2 boxer

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    Nah. God likes to golf. Trump's courses got some primo greens, needs an in.
     
  9. Zkribbler

    Zkribbler Deity

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    Actually, He likes to hang out with carpenters and fishermen. Golf is the Devil's game; ask anyone who's played it. :satan:
     
  10. Gucumatz

    Gucumatz JS, secretly Rod Serling

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    The problem with your argument is that you are looking at the general population, not the Democratic primary population. In order to play the game strategically, a Democratic candidate needs to survive/thrive in the southern primaries by winning African American and Hispanic voters. The democratic primary electorate has a much higher minority electorate, as of that 70% white population, whites are more likely to be registered as Republicans - not Democrats. For example - the NC population may only be 22% African American and 7% Hispanic, but in the primary the non-white population rises to basically half of the vote. Other states are similar (Ohio, Florida, etc. - democratic primaries are less white than the larger population) - this is simply math and demographics, not bias.

    Republican primaries as a contrast are more likely to have a much higher white electorate (since minorities don't vote much within Republican primaries), which encourages a focus on "white" issues. Race matters when it comes to American political strategy, Republicans won 60% of the white vote in 2012 but still lost the general because the Republican party failed to win any other significant racial demographic group (losing them all badly)
     
  11. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    UVa has a couple of articles out of the possible VP candidates. I like their term--Veepstakes.
    http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-veepstakes-part-one-clintons-choices/
    http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cr...-selection-how-much-does-it-matter-this-year/

    For both parties, I would toss out anyone over 60. Age is enough of an issue without doubling down. Senators from a state with an opposite party Governor are also unlikely, with a few exceptions. Those are states with a quick special election. Trump will likely choose a minority though, with him, nothing is certain.

    J
     
  12. Gucumatz

    Gucumatz JS, secretly Rod Serling

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    I still think Clinton's best choice is choosing one of the Castro brothers (or a lesser known quantity like Cardenas or an established quantity like former governor Richardson, point is a Hispanic). By doubling down on the Hispanic vote and having a bulldog vp be in a position to attack Trump, you create a situation where thin skinned Trump will eventually want to attack your vp pick (and knowing Trump there will be racial overtones eventually).

    The key to winning the general election is demographics and mobilization, by picking a Hispanic that can get under Trump's skin Democrats increase their mobilization capabilities in key states like Florida, NC, and Virginia [and heck while we are it, we throw Arizona into play and Senator McCain's seat into play]. And since if Republicans lose any one of those 3 states (Florida, NC, or Virginia - or Arizona of course), they don't have a path to winning the general election. Winning Florida for the Dems is most likely going to be enough to win the general election
     
  13. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I'll sit with you

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    I still think Bernie as VP is an easy call for Clinton. It would make no sense for her to pick a minority, as she's got the minority vote in the bag... a) she's a Democrat; b) she's NOT a Republican; and c) she's running against Trump. Hillary's weakest demographic is white men, she'd have to be pretty oblivious to that to not to pick a white guy for VP. But since she's not oblivious, she will pick a white guy. Again, I vote for Bernie.

    J your under 60 thing doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Biden and Cheney were both over 60, and they both filled exactly their intended roles. Trump should pick a woman, Latino or Arab & Muslim, at that, but he won't, cause he's Trump.
     
  14. Gucumatz

    Gucumatz JS, secretly Rod Serling

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    While the minority vote may be in the bag, the mobilization isn't - particularly for hispanic voters. Hispanic voter eligibility and actual turnout tends to be the worst margins demographically, of well any racial demographic. For one reason or the other, Hispanics are typically not motivated to vote. So while they may vote 80% Democratic, their turnout is relatively small to what it could be

    Democrats are going to lose the white angry male vote regardless, most likely by similar margins as with Romney - focusing on that might help numbers nationally somewhat - but far less regionally in key general election states

    The reason analysts like Nate Silver think Arizona could be in play for instance, is because higher than usual turnout proportions among Hispanics. If Hispanics had the same turnout % as whites, Texas would be a regularly blue state - but since the turnout isn't there it isn't. Creating a broader tradition of turnout for Hispanics would also help Democrats in the longterm, over the next 20 years far much more than a Sanders pick would
     
  15. Flying Pig

    Flying Pig Utrinque Paratus

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    I suppose it depends on how youthful Clinton thinks she seems. She's 68. The oldest President ever elected was Reagan at 69; in modern times, his nearest competitor is Bush 41 at 64. Reagan's VP was Bush, who was 57 and at least reasonably energetic - Bush's was Dan Quayle, who was young enough that he famously and unfortunately spent a lot of effort convincing people that he had the experience for the job. Sanders already seems to be teetering on the edge of the point at which asking for four years of service sounds like a risk, and would be pulling the ticket in the other direction. It would be easy for Trump to cast them as the geriatric (metaphorically and literally) establishment.
     
  16. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I'll sit with you

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    And alienate seniors, losing yet another demographic?... I don't think so. Trump is already fighting like 6 or 7 fires, for example, he is already trying to walk back the Muslim ban. I don't see him starting another fire with seniors. He refused to touch "entitlements" for a reason... and it didn't have anything to do with low income housing or food stamps.

    Also, he would have a hopelessly uphill battle trying to get Bernie supporters to accept a message that Bernie was "establishment"... and Hillary supporters wouldn't care since we already see him as such... So again, a Hillary & Bernie ticket has nothing to fear from that line of attack.
     
  17. Archbob

    Archbob Ancient CFC Guardian

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    Does anyone take what Trump says seriously though?

    I mean, he engages in a lot of Jibba-Jabba.
     
  18. Flying Pig

    Flying Pig Utrinque Paratus

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    I'll give you the first point (though Trump doesn't usually show any compunction about alienating demographics), though not the second. It assumes that the only people voting are the politically engaged, which just isn't true. Yes, the 10% or so of the country who actively support Sanders won't accept that, nor will the 15% who actively support Clinton, and the 25% or so who actively support either Trump or the Republican party won't particularly mind what he says, because there's no way they're voting Democrat. The job in politics is to persuade people who don't have a horse in the race, or much time or inclination to learn about what you're talking about in detail. I think a lot of undecided voters would see any ticket but Clinton/Sanders as 'the energetic one', and perceptions of energy and drive count for a lot in politics.
     
  19. Archbob

    Archbob Ancient CFC Guardian

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    What if Trump and Clinton decide to troll us and Trump drops out of the race to become Clinton's VP?
     
  20. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    There is a theory, which I don't actively support but can't really discount, that Trump will drive the highest mobilization ever among the Hispanic vote. People who strongly believe that already see McCain's seat in Arizona as being ripe for the plucking.

    That said, I agree that it would be worth the effort to pick a Hispanic VP candidate to ensure, or at least enhance, that mobilization. I also agree that at some point Trump would probably flip out and start demanding multiple copies of the candidates birth certificate, providing an absolutely hilarious distraction to Republican campaigns from top to bottom.
     
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