Clown Car 2016

[Sommerswerd]

All political parties have racists and bigots, it's just that the Republican party allows theirs to set policy and the Democrats keep theirs quiet.

This.

So I'm sure you can come up with a number of examples to support your premise. Or do you mean that the media engages in an elaborate conspiracy to completely ignore them so we don't even know they exist?

Formy and Tim, I got you guys covered on this... An example:

In the Democratic Party there is Phillip Berg (BTW I love how Prez Obama's long form birth certificate is posted as his Wikipedia "photo"), leading the birtherism charge. He was ignored by the majority of Democratic voters. How do we know that he was ignored by the majority? Because Prez Obama won... twice.

On the Republican side you have Orly Taiz who's ludicrous claims seem to resonate with the majority of Republican voters. The proof? Well, a 2009 survey found that the 93% of Democrats thought Prez Obama was a citizen while only 42% of Republicans did.

But maybe the best example is David Duke, a Klu Klux Klan leader who was a Democrat and switched to the Republican party in 1988, because he was being ignored by the Democrats and couldn't get elected to anything... So after switching to the Republican Party... he won

So like Tim said Democrats ignore them, Republicans listen to (or elect) them. That is a pretty significant difference.

 

[Antilogic]

I find this conspiracy theory intriguing: http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2015/08/09/gope-2016-road-map-to-victory-tree-house-challenge/

The devised a model for Bush to be the candidate requiring a bunch of not-Bush's to steal the votes from each other. Then come time for the primary, indeed a flood of candidates with the right prerequisites washed on in.

Bush-Walker 2016.

I don't think Trump figured into the Bush strategists' calculations. I think they were prepping for controlling a flavor of the month cascade, but Trump's rise isn't following the same pattern. Take the Mexico comment, the John McCain incident, doxxing Graham, what he said about Megyn Kelly, all of that would have sunk an ordinary politician's campaign.

Additionally, this strategy is risky because he's going to need half the delegates, not a plurality, to get nominated, and right now he doesn't have that level of support.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I don't think Trump figured into the Bush strategists' calculations. I think they were prepping for controlling a flavor of the month cascade, but Trump's rise isn't following the same pattern. Take the Mexico comment, the John McCain incident, doxxing Graham, what he said about Megyn Kelly, all of that would have sunk an ordinary politician's campaign.

Additionally, this strategy is risky because he's going to need half the delegates, not a plurality, to get nominated, and right now he doesn't have that level of support.

They definitely didn't count on Trump, but the strategy still works as long as whenever anyone drops out they give their support to Bush. Obviously it doesn't work if too many stay in to the end, and if you assume Trump stays to the end and draws 25% of the delegates the strategy probably fails unless everyone else drops out. One guy staying in with 26% of the delegates blows the whole deal at that point.

 

[Antilogic]

They definitely didn't count on Trump, but the strategy still works as long as whenever anyone drops out they give their support to Bush. Obviously it doesn't work if too many stay in to the end, and if you assume Trump stays to the end and draws 25% of the delegates the strategy probably fails unless everyone else drops out. One guy staying in with 26% of the delegates blows the whole deal at that point.

This is where my theory on Walker is relevant: I think he's everyone's second choice. If, say, an evangelical candidate like Huckabee or Santorum drops out, I think their supporters are more likely to align with Walker than Bush, even if the candidate endorses Bush. Same with Tea Party types, who see Bush as the king of establishment insiders and Walker as someone who would be a good Anybody But Bush guy.

And I don't think Walker drops out.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

This is where my theory on Walker is relevant: I think he's everyone's second choice. If, say, an evangelical candidate like Huckabee or Santorum drops out, I think their supporters are more likely to align with Walker than Bush, even if the candidate endorses Bush. Same with Tea Party types, who see Bush as the king of establishment insiders and Walker as someone who would be a good Anybody But Bush guy.

And I don't think Walker drops out.

I don't either. And I agree he is the voter's second choice. But voters are a different beast than delegates. As long as all these delegate accrual machines stay in long enough and then cede their delegates to Bush he gets the nomination.

Trump breaks the plan, because even if they all cede their delegates to Bush he may not have a clear majority with Trump having his cut. So Walker is a problem, and Trump is a serious problem. I honestly don't see any way out from under for the Republican brain trust.

 

[jackelgull]

I don't either. And I agree he is the voter's second choice. But voters are a different beast than delegates. As long as all these delegate accrual machines stay in long enough and then cede their delegates to Bush he gets the nomination.

Trump breaks the plan, because even if they all cede their delegates to Bush he may not have a clear majority with Trump having his cut. So Walker is a problem, and Trump is a serious problem. I honestly don't see any way out from under for the Republican brain trust.

Unless they get desperate enough to put a bullet through Trump's skull, but I don't see that happening. Which is a shame, it would be a great service to the world.

 

[Antilogic]

I don't either. And I agree he is the voter's second choice. But voters are a different beast than delegates. As long as all these delegate accrual machines stay in long enough and then cede their delegates to Bush he gets the nomination.

Trump breaks the plan, because even if they all cede their delegates to Bush he may not have a clear majority with Trump having his cut. So Walker is a problem, and Trump is a serious problem. I honestly don't see any way out from under for the Republican brain trust.

Essentially, we are talking about a risk of a brokered convention; delegates are typically locked for the first ballot to the named candidate, even if that candidate has since dropped out of the race. It hasn't been an issue in the modern era because the eventual nominee has always been able to achieve an absolute majority of the delegates and win on the first ballot. What we are talking about here, if I'm reading you correctly, is that Bush would try to set himself up to win on the second ballot and avoid a drawn-out convention fight.

I think that's especially risky.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Essentially, we are talking about a risk of a brokered convention; delegates are typically locked for the first ballot to the named candidate, even if that candidate has since dropped out of the race. It hasn't been an issue in the modern era because the eventual nominee has always been able to achieve an absolute majority of the delegates and win on the first ballot. What we are talking about here, if I'm reading you correctly, is that Bush would try to set himself up to win on the second ballot and avoid a drawn-out convention fight.

I think that's especially risky.

While it is risky, what was the alternative? Bush was never likely to get a clear first ballot win. The party overall has shifted away from electability and towards "genuine Republicanism." The Romney plan of saying just enough crazy stuff to get nominated and then repudiating it all didn't work, so what's next on the list? Either maneuver for the second ballot or accept that the party is eventually going to nominate someone who truly represents them and watch that person get totally blown out. Any question what the power brokers of the GOP prefer?

Where it all goes awry is that instead of a three way split with Ted Cruz as king of the crazies who could be bought into supporting Bush over Walker, or some madhouse of fractured shards who could all rally around the flag at the end of the day, it's Trump, who is a genuine wild card.

 

[Formaldehyde]

This.Formy and Tim, I got you guys covered on this... An example:

In the Democratic Party there is Phillip Berg (BTW I love how Prez Obama's long form birth certificate is posted as his Wikipedia "photo"), leading the birtherism charge. He was ignored by the majority of Democratic voters. How do we know that he was ignored by the majority? Because Prez Obama won... twice.

On the Republican side you have Orly Taiz who's ludicrous claims seem to resonate with the majority of Republican voters. The proof? Well, a 2009 survey found that the 93% of Democrats thought Prez Obama was a citizen while only 42% of Republicans did.

But maybe the best example is David Duke, a Klu Klux Klan leader who was a Democrat and switched to the Republican party in 1988, because he was being ignored by the Democrats and couldn't get elected to anything... So after switching to the Republican Party... he won

So like Tim said Democrats ignore them, Republicans listen to (or elect) them. That is a pretty significant difference.

Right. Like two nuts who called themselves Democrats proves anything.

Again, the issue isn't that there are a few bigots and racists in the Democratic Party. It is that there are a lot more in the Republican Party, and whose bigotry and racism is so virulent it is quite evident. And it is being ignored by many Republicans when not being pandered to through dog whistles or directly by Trump. It is literally the elephant in the closet.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Right. Like two nuts who called themselves Democrats proves anything.

Again, the issue isn't that there are a few bigots and racists in the Democratic Party. It is that there are a lot more in the Republican Party, and whose bigotry and racism is so virulent it is quite evident. And it is being ignored by many Republicans when not being pandered to through dog whistles or directly by Trump. It is literally the elephant in the closet.

I don't think the raw number is the issue. I'm not absolutely sure how the raw numbers would tip, for that matter, though I tend to agree the GOP probably harbors more of them.

I think the only issue that matters to me is that as I said, in the Democratic party the racism of the racists is ignored, in a positive way. The party basically tells its racists "yeah, we're not doing that" until they have mostly stopped asking. As you point out, in the GOP they are establishing policy and running as candidates, which is a whole different ball game.

 

[Formaldehyde]

There is a distinct difference between not condoning something and ignoring it. Many Republicans are actually the ones guilty of the latter while even largely condoning it.

The bigots and racists left the Democratic Party in droves ever since they supported the civil rights movement in the 60s. They were also specifically courted by the Republicans using the Southern Strategy.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

There is a distinct difference between not condoning something and ignoring it.

You are right. "Not condoning" would suggest that the Democratic party actively kicks out racists, which they do not. Ignoring their racial views and letting them decide to leave if their racism is their primary motivation, or they can stay if other issues are more important to them.

Gee, someone said that somewhere further up the thread...

 

[Formaldehyde]

How exactly does a political party force someone to not register to vote in that party?

You don't think David Duke didn't get called out for his involvement in the KKK? He was never elected to political office as a Democrat. But once Duke switched to the Republican Party he got elected to the Louisiana house.

 

[Cutlass]

Rick Perry stops paying all of his staff as fundraising dries up


http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...south-carolina-staff-as-fundraising-dries-up/

 

[Sommerswerd]

Rick Perry stops paying all of his staff as fundraising dries up


http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...south-carolina-staff-as-fundraising-dries-up/

Ooh Ooh Ooh...


Link to video.

 

[Cutlass]

 

[Cutlass]

"I would knock out the primary source of their wealth, which is oil. And in order to do that you would have to put boots on the ground. I would knock the hell out of them, but I'd put a ring around it and take the oil for our country."
—

Trump on how he would fight ISIS

 

[Formaldehyde]

GWB proved that any far-right idiot could be president. Trump is proving that the idiot doesn't even have to use dog whistles. That he can say whatever he wants.

 

[Samson]

GWB proved that any far-right idiot could be president. Trump is proving that the idiot doesn't even have to use dog whistles. That he can say whatever he wants.

Are you saying you think Trump could be president?

 

[Formaldehyde]

I'm not sure about Trump himself. He has an extremely large amount of hypocritical baggage to carry around, doesn't know how to mount an effective political campaign, and shoots from the hip far too often. But I do think he has shown that you don't have to talk in dog whistles.