Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Estebonrober, Jan 6, 2020.
Democrats must have kept Republicans from voting.
He'll do his classic ‘no u’ and say that it was because the Dimmacrats complain about voter suppression but really they were suppressing his enlightened voters all along.
Low-energy answers. Sad.
Iam pretty sure the peak was 3.5K when NYC retroactively adding on a huge number of suspected deaths onto the total.
The 500 is an upward trend of deaths which is expected to climb for at least another 2 weeks
Project <---- we are here now
Uhh, is this really a thing?
ı hear Tom Hanks has been accused of pedophilia , some website or company or whatever was running a scheme for pro tution of kids , so ı would say Trump would suggest satanic forces combined all their might against him or whatever . The New never has to explain anything , though it might be interesting to see what happens in the country that powers the New globally , USA that's , when the New loses power ...
as a further trolling , a good fire on USS Bon Homme Richard .
Finally, some good news!
Ivanka Trump launches "Find Something New" campaign.
On November 3rd, I mean to.
but then there is nothing like Trump's signature , precise and bold and eyecatching and no mockery , too !
It really is another "who do you hate less" election:
Spoiler More graphs :
What’s especially notable here is that Biden’s net enthusiasm rating is near zero, which is similar to most major-party presidential candidates’ ratings from 1980 to 2012. Trump’s current score of around -20, on the other hand, has only one historical comparison other than his own campaign four years ago: Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Politico had an interesting article earlier this year that isn't all that far from your thinking and the gist of the 538 article you linked to.
An Unsettling New Theory: There Is No Swing Voter.
Bitecofer’s theory, when you boil it down, is that modern American elections are rarely shaped by voters changing their minds, but rather by shifts in who decides to vote in the first place.
The classic view is that the pool of American voters is basically fixed:
About 55 percent of eligible voters are likely to go to the polls, and the winner is determined by the 15 percent or so of “swing voters” who flit between the parties.
So a general election campaign amounts to a long effort to pull those voters in to your side.
Bitecofer’s view of the electorate is driven, in part, by a new way to think about why Americans vote the way they do.
“In the polarized era, the outcome isn’t really about the candidates. What matters is what percentage of the electorate is Republican and Republican leaners, and what percentage is Democratic and Democratic leaners, and how they get activated,” she said.
She picked the result of the primaries better than most pundits, but of course that doesn't mean she's likely to be right in November.
Late edit: I just noticed that the 538 article you mentioned cites Rachel Bitecofer's 2019 paper on negative partisanship .
With 16 Months to go, Negative Partisanship Predicts the 2020 Presidential Election
The same way he deals with everything he does not like. Deny it and accuse it of being a hoax and fake news. He will claim that he got the most "real" votes and say that mail-in voting was all fraudulent, illegal aliens were voting by the millions, Chinese hacking, coronavirus hysteria and so on.
As an aside... Biden is back under 50% and Trump is closing the gap. So I still say that the election is his to lose, despite him being behind in the polls.
There is nothing "unsettling" or "new" about this theory at all. Myself and many others on these threads have been saying exactly this for years. The "independent" is mostly a myth, and often more a result people deluding themselves based on a desire to see themselves as more "fair" and "objective" and "open minded" than they actually are... and/or seeking to avoid the negative labels associated with being on a particular "side", and/or a desire to paint themselves as being smarter of more enlightened than everyone else. People also like the attention that comes with being "independent" because then you are courted by politicians, the media, pollsters, etc.
Shrug. That's just how media headlines work. They pumped it up because she was one of the few that got so close to the actual result.
I'm sure you could write the follow-up headline in November if she gets it wrong by as big a margin. Not that anybody would give her much space on their pages.
See.. these things are why I ask the question. Through these he can explain why Biden got more votes, but not why he got fewer votes than ht did in 2016. That's going to be a separate part of the election results that he's going to have to spin.
Well like I said, the first thing he will do is outright deny that he got less votes...
Right, but he's going to need some kind of claim about what happened to his extra votes. See, claiming your opponents votes are inflated is easy: there were extra votes cast. But claiming that you got more than the tallies showed you did requires some kind of explanation for what happened to those votes. Is he going to claim every polling site in the nation just trimmed 10% off his vote total?
"Somebody tampered with the voting machines. Now legitimate votes don't even count. So sad..."
Don't get wrapped up in the notion that whatever his claims are need to be credible, or to even make any sense, as we know for a fact that he makes nonsensical, preposterous claims all the time and people still believe it. This situation will be no different. My guess is that he will blame a combination of factors and completely ignore the logical and statistical contradictions inherent to the claims.
For example, he will claim that China hacked or otherwise tampered with the results. When reporters/pundits incredulously respond "In every State?", he and/or his supporters will respond with some vague claim that "some people say its possible", "lot's of people are saying that it happened", "we know they are capable of doing things like this", "there were reports that they were going to do things like this" and so on...When he says that its because of COVID, reporters will point out that that would affect ALL voters, not just his, he will deny that and say that "lots of people are saying that it affects Republicans the most"... when he blames the protests for scaring his voters away, reporters will point out that the protests are in urban areas where Democrats, rather than Republicans are concentrated, he will deny that and say that the protests are happening all over, and many many of the protests if not the most protests are happening in the rural areas, so it affects his supporters the worst... on and on...
relevant New Turkey experience ... When A-K-P lost municipality elections in lstanbul , they first launched an campaign thanking the city for choosing them . So that Opposition would stop caring and give up and go home so that sacks of votes , you know ... Then it became a conspiracy , Jews to llluminati , Congregation , anything , you should also know when the Templiers were burned in France they sent their treasure fleet here and if the canal between Blacksea and Marmara happens it will be found , that kind of thing so the Opposition surely did massive fraud ! They gave so many ways of how votes could be stolen , mostly leading to remarks that New Turkey would know , being experienced . There were 4 different elections stuff , one for the metropolitan mayor , one for neighbourhood mayor and council memberships . So , it was so funny and not so funny when the experts "convinced" the country that traitors had faked the election but they had concentrated in only one of the races ! One fake vote and 3 correct ones and yes , the New Turkey people could not reliably explain how came that traitors betrayed the country with one vote , while they had voted correctly in 3 others ... Translation : Do not bother imagining what can be done , you will all see it if Trump's defeat is not "undeniable" .
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