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Clown Car V: 2020 version!

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Estebonrober, Jan 6, 2020.

  1. Phrossack

    Phrossack Armored Fish and Armored Men

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    hobbsyoyo, Cutlass and Estebonrober like this.
  2. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    Not quite, but a long step in that direction.

    You are in the minority. I hope you enjoyed your time on top.

    Moderator Action: Enough trolling. Knock it off. --LM

    The lead is not big enough. Trump is a proven closer.

    J
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 21, 2020
    Old Hippy likes this.
  3. r16

    r16 not deity

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    tyranny of minority (without taking part in any fighting that might have happened) is also a proven thing with New Turkey . ln our case it is this Westernized slaves who hate everything lslamic and Ottoman and whole long list of things . Liberals against "Real America" of 4th July Parades maybe . Headscarves and the political symbolism of the whole took 15 years of the A-K-P rule to fix . lt is always the greatest service to women they did , because anyone could choose to "close" as per Democracy , while to "open" seems hard ... 10 years of the headscarves thing kept in the background because of its PR value . And of course American Right Wing is forgetting their cherished American Dream is like eminently produced by the Liberals . When freedoms and stuff are like made to respect the majority , in the way New operates everywhere , the majority will one discover itself utterly surprised to feel why their total control turns out to be such a disaster when compared to the times they were robbing the country discreetly .
     
  4. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    Gaslight
    Obstruct
    Project <------- we are here now

    What amazes me is that GOP impeached a President over a blow job, and now the US is going to pay in 300,000 dead they are silent.

     
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2020
    hobbsyoyo, cardgame and Cutlass like this.
  5. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Deity

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    Those carpet stains in the Whitehouse can be hard to get out.
     
    Socrates99 likes this.
  6. Gori the Grey

    Gori the Grey The Poster

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    "A plus," Trump would give as his score.
    We've more deaths, more infections (there's more!)
    More per capita dead,
    The A? Scratching my head.
    But I see what the "plus" is there for.
     
  7. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd Rest in Peace Black Panther

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    Meh... based on past elections, a 6% lead is in-fact enough for a Democrat to win. Obama did it, convincingly, with just shy of 4%.

    That said, Trump is certainly closing. Months ago, Biden's lead was 14% in some polls. I think it just mostly reflects more and more shy Trump supporters finally shedding their masks, as opposed to many people finally "making up their minds". Still, at least 3%, possibly 5% of that remining vote is going to third parties, so there isn't much more than 2% of the shy-Trump vote left for him to claim. If he gets all of that, its going to be close. If he gets none of it... he is going to get trounced.
     
    hobbsyoyo likes this.
  8. Gori the Grey

    Gori the Grey The Poster

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    Minnesotans (now here comes a beaut)
    Have good genes, claims the comb-over coot.
    We all know what the lout
    Is talking about . . .
    You Eugenes, what I mean is aboot.
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2020
    Socrates99, Birdjaguar and tjs282 like this.
  9. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Deity

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    Your analysis is all very well, but we all know that some people simply refuse to participate in polls.
    Which makes me wonder what is the percentage of non participants and how will they split.
     
  10. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

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    Obama had great turnout numbers in 2012 and Romney's were mediocre.

    There is more to it than shy voters being willing to speak. More people are starting to really look at the candidates and the issues. It's easy to forget not everyone are political junkies like we are. Trump has always done best with likely voters. Pollsters start doing a better job, because late polls are remembered polls.

    One factoid from 2016 exit polling. The demographic group which most exceeding its polling was college educated men voting for Trump.

    J
     
  11. Gori the Grey

    Gori the Grey The Poster

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  12. Phrossack

    Phrossack Armored Fish and Armored Men

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    hobbsyoyo likes this.
  13. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    Gaslight
    Obstruct <----- we are here now
    Project

    Just stack the Supreme court and have them rule that its legal for states decide directly. Then say that this ruling is only valid for this one election
    We already know this election is going to be one of the dirtiest.

     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2020
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  14. Cloud_Strife

    Cloud_Strife Deity

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    democracy dies in darkness and republicans will be the ones to stick the knife in, turn the light out and walk away
     
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  15. Traitorfish

    Traitorfish The Tighnahulish Kid

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    Does this mean that Bernie Bros are off the hook if Trump wins, or it will still turn out to be somehow their fault?
     
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  16. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    If preventing the green party from running candidates is supposed to siphon their voters to Biden, it should be even less of a problem to siphon any Bernie supporters to Biden.
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2020
  17. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd Rest in Peace Black Panther

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    If Trump wins it will be as always. Moderates will blame Progressives for not showing up to vote for a Moderate and Progressives will blame Moderates for not nominating a Progressive.
     
  18. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Bernie: tries to get melting-brain Joe elected.

    Biden: I beat the socialist!!!



    Good thinking Joe, this will make the progressives bother to vote for you.
     
    cardgame and Socrates99 like this.
  19. Phrossack

    Phrossack Armored Fish and Armored Men

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    You know I voted for Bernie in both primaries and attended his rallies, right?

    But to answer your "gotcha":

    If it weren't for the death of Ginsburg, and the Republican plan, now publicly stated, to ignore the popular vote in states and to rely on obedient electors instead, I would say every vote counts and we all have a duty to do whatever it takes to prevent the impending introduction of a one-party state. Now, though, it seems things are mostly out of the hands of the people, save for how much protesting, rioting, and street warfare there will be after Trump has the mailed ballots thrown by SCOTUS or physically destroyed by allies while he tosses the popular vote out in swing states led by Republican governments.

    As for you, though, your repeated responses to increasing evidence of the Republican plan to win through cheating is "This Is Fine," so clearly you still think the election hasn't already been decided. Would that mean your stance is now something like this: "Sure, the Left has lost literally every single American general election in history, but this time, this time, you Yanks can stick it to Biden even if it costs you your country?"

    Either there's the chance in a quintillion that four to eight more years of Trump is perfectly Fine and the American moderates and centrists have a complete personality shift and suddenly wake up to the benefits of Leftism, or America descends into authoritarian one-party white supremacist rule for the remainder of its history, but what would you care? You're a safe distance away. You don't live here. You don't have to deal with the consequences very much.
     
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  20. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd Rest in Peace Black Panther

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    Looking at the current national polls... I'm feeling more and more discouraged about this election...

    Latest RCP has Biden at 50% and Trump at 43%, so that's a 7% lead for Biden. As I've mentioned previously, Hillary lost, convincingly in the EC, with a 2.1% vote lead and Obama won, convincingly in the EC with a 3.9% vote lead. So we know that a 2% lead is nowhere near enough for Biden to win, and a 4% lead is more than enough. So somewhere between 4% and 2% is the breaking point that Biden needs to be above, but its impossible to say where.

    Going back to the current lead Biden has in the polls... at 7% ahead with 7% unaccounted for, you have to assume at least 3% goes to third parties, leaving 4%. My guess is that Trump gets almost all of that, as I suspect it mostly represents shy Trump voters who just don't want to admit they are voting for Trump. There might be 1% or so between shy Biden voters, genuine inexplicably still-undecided voters and folks that ultimately just aren't going to show up at all, so Trump get the rest, bringing him up to 46%.

    So at that point Biden got his 4% lead and he wins right? Wrong. Because you have to figure that with all the election day and mail-in ballot shenanigans the Republicans are going to pull that Biden is going to have a non-negligible portion of his votes thrown out. If Biden loses 1% of his vote to those tactics, then his lead is down to 3% and its anybody's guess whether that will be enough to squeak out the win or not.
     
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