1. We have added a Gift Upgrades feature that allows you to gift an account upgrade to another member, just in time for the holiday season. You can see the gift option when going to the Account Upgrades screen, or on any user profile screen.
    Dismiss Notice

Clown Car V: 2020 version!

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Estebonrober, Jan 6, 2020.

  1. Phrossack

    Phrossack Armored Fish and Armored Men

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2008
    Messages:
    6,012
    Yeah, with the army of Republican "poll security" put in place specifically to intimidate people they don't think they belong, plus the destruction of the Post Office, plus the virus meaning Democrats will mostly mail in, plus the SCOTUS, plus likelihood of Republicans just physically destroying mailed in ballots, I'd give Biden's chances at roughly 0%.

    The pundits and the big businesses and the betting markets are all looking at the wrong measurements. This election is fundamentally different from all others before it in that votes literally don't matter this year. It's purely up to courts and electors and the people with guns this time, and they've made it clear whose side they're on.
     
  2. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd Rest in Peace Black Panther

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    18,507
    Location:
    Wakanda Forever
    I'm gonna push back on that a little. I understand the point you are making, but remember that its a point that is made literally every election, regardless of circumstances. And while I recognize that you may be saying "Yeah but this time its reeeeeeally the case", just consider that even with all the stops that the Republicans may pull out to screw up the results, the more skewed the numbers are in Biden's favor, the harder it will be for anyone to deny the result.

    I am guessing that 3rd party votes hit at least 3%... but maybe, just maybe, more typically third party folks want Trump out and it ends up being only 1% with the other 2% going to Biden. Maybe Republican shenanigans are only able to get a negligible amount of the vote thrown out. Maybe that shy Trump portion of the electorate is smaller than I am estimating. Obama's 2008 margin was 7.2%. If Biden gets anywhere near that, the result will be undeniable to the point where even Republicans will be calling on Trump to step down.

    @Commodore opined a scenario where Trump initially resists leaving office, but then a deal is cut behind the scenes whereby he agrees to leave the White House. I think that is the most likely scenario if Biden wins with a 5% or larger margin. Now if the margin is under 3%, I agree with you... we're headed for a Court battle and I don't like the odds in that scenario.
     
  3. Farm Boy

    Farm Boy You gave me my own tail?

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2010
    Messages:
    18,947
    We're headed for hundreds of court battles. They've been grinding along nonstop since before November 2016.
     
    Estebonrober likes this.
  4. Phrossack

    Phrossack Armored Fish and Armored Men

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2008
    Messages:
    6,012
    Officially, though, the popular vote does not matter. It has no legal status. In theory, a huge gap between the popular vote and the winner would make people "wake up" - but I'm convinced that's not the case. I see no reason to believe why 5% is the magic number when 3% wasn't. Hell, I think even a 20% difference between the popular vote counts wouldn't change anything, and that would never happen. The winners of the popular vote, if they lost the election, would say it's a rigged system. The winners of the election would say the same thing they did last time: "You had a lot of fraud on your side, and anyway it doesn't matter, so THERE!" And finally we'd see the bulk of the American people - the apathetics - say that they don't do this politics stuff since it's all corrupt and a mess anyway, and they just keep on keeping on no matter what and eat whatever crap someone dumps on their plate. Everyone has made up their minds and no amount of discrepancy between popular vote and outcome will ever change that.

    It wouldn't even go before the courts because the Constitution is clear that the popular vote doesn't matter. That would mean the armed apparatuses of the state would remain on the side of the electoral winner.
     
  5. Gori the Grey

    Gori the Grey The Poster

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2009
    Messages:
    7,093
    None of this means anything. You have to look at the state polls in the battleground states.
     
    hobbsyoyo, Birdjaguar and Samson like this.
  6. Estebonrober

    Estebonrober Deity

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2017
    Messages:
    4,534
    Gender:
    Male
    Yep. GOP efforts to reduce voting nationwide have been winning everywhere since Shelby v Holder. History will not look well upon that ruling or this period. Well unless we purge and write even more insane propaganda into our history books then what’s already there.
     
    hobbsyoyo likes this.
  7. Phrossack

    Phrossack Armored Fish and Armored Men

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2008
    Messages:
    6,012
    Whatever effects you may suffer over in Britain - such as the permanent solidification of the wave of authoritarianism that has won everywhere from Brazil to Hungary, Poland to the Philippines - Americans are going to feel it quite a lot more. We have to deal with the backlash of the threatened police and surveillance state in the form of shootings, beatings, arrests, and spying; with the rise of white supremacist terrorism and militia intimidation right here; with the tightening grip of corporate rule; with the devastating toll right-wing government has taken on our environment, our schools, and our health. Europe gets the nuclear fallout, but America gets the nuclear blast.

    Even the most firmly leftist American posters here have come around to recognizing Biden as the amputation that saves us from the gangrene. Yet European leftists here consistently lecture us on what's best for ourselves. European leftists realize they don't understand what people's lives are like in places like Africa, or Bangladesh, or Guatemala, and are usually prepared to defer to them on their domestic issues and realities, but they have a peculiar belief that they fully understand American life and know what Americans need better than the Americans do.

    I suspect this is, as I've said before, because the omnipresence of American culture and the common language leads them to believe that America isn't so foreign after all, but this familiarity is deceptive. The fact is that America is not Britain and the remedies you prescribe for one cannot work reliably for the other. Who are you to lecture us on what we need and what we're experiencing? If even the most neoliberal-hating leftists from America here reluctantly recognize the need to defeat Trump, who are you to say we're refusing to engage with reality? Might it not be possible that we are far more vulnerable to the GOP and have more at stake than you?

    This is, I take it, a tacit admission that you care more to see the American neoliberal cause humiliated than you do about the well-being of the American people, which is not surprising, since you're not one of them and have less to lose. On the impossibly small off-chance that a Biden defeat "wakes up" the moderate establishment, you get to watch with satisfaction; in the very likely case that a Biden defeat just means the beginning of one-party authoritarianism, you're still outside the blast radius.
     
  8. Gori the Grey

    Gori the Grey The Poster

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2009
    Messages:
    7,093
    Like Sommer, I'm going to push back a little. I think there is one safeguard against Trump's efforts to cast doubt on the election results (which is the starting point for the strategies you see him using to steal the election): all the other elections. Is every race for the House, Senate, Governorships, etc. going to be held in limbo while Trump challenges the results of the presidential race? Are the ballots cast going to be held to be sufficient to settle those races, but somehow corrupted when it comes to the presidential race? Our election system is a system for producing results in the form of a named winner. Just because Poutyboy Soreloser claims this set or that set of ballots is invalid regarding him, are we going to hold up the whole show? And if the other races have been determined, why can't this one be?
     
    Birdjaguar and Sommerswerd like this.
  9. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd Rest in Peace Black Panther

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    18,507
    Location:
    Wakanda Forever
    We've been through this before... None of it means anything. The only thing that really matters is the final result of the election. So all this discussion is academic and just for conversation/amusement. I don't have to look at anything.

    And for the purposes of my discussion and amusement, the national polls are just fine, as they are a pretty good shorthand indicator of how close the election will be overall, and in turn how tight the battleground state races might end up. I'm not going and looking at all those individual battleground state polls because I don't feel like being bothered with that right now. So telling me "Its all about the battleground states!" like I don't know that, is... well... let's just say I'd rather you go look all that up and let me know what they say than look them up myself.
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2020
    Lexicus likes this.
  10. Lexicus

    Lexicus Deity

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2007
    Messages:
    24,715
    Location:
    Sovereign State of the Have-Nots
    My new theory is that this is a kind of performative cynicism about America. Like, things already suck there so Trump can't make them much worse.
     
  11. Phrossack

    Phrossack Armored Fish and Armored Men

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2008
    Messages:
    6,012
    I think the reason for (mostly European) leftists downplaying the Republican threat is because they're so disillusioned with the neoliberal Western imperialist system and the leftist failure to defeat it that their goals have shifted from "help establish and protect rights for the people" to "tear down the system at any cost." It's easier to feel the Schadenfreude when you don't live in the collapsing state.
     
    hobbsyoyo and cardgame like this.
  12. r16

    r16 not deity

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2008
    Messages:
    6,205
    votes are your only weapons . lf Biden loses , despite all the arguments a certain CFC poster provides , you Americans are toast . And fighting will gain you exactly nothing , unless you are as criminal as the American Right is ... Not back at home in the US but the globe where there are no American laws and what not to make them go either slow or do it in the shadows . Plus they have all the guns . And yes , New Turkey example . Local election in lstanbul lost by A-K-P by 13 000 votes like ı don't know maybe 8 millions cast . They declared there was treason and foreign intelligence services and Templars zombied from the grave . No , actually ı made up the last . And somehow there was widespread wrongdoing and people would put 4 different votes into one envelope , for local mayor , for local council , for metropolitan mayor , for metropolitan council and somehow the traitors only worked to influence and replace only one of them . 4 votes , one envelope and only one for metropolitan wass corrupt . Second run , only for metropolitan mayor . lmamoğlu won with 800 000 this time .

    ı also hear Trump will use the vaccine just in time for election . Sorry , will not interfere in that one because you know it would save more lives faster as it comes .
     
  13. Gori the Grey

    Gori the Grey The Poster

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2009
    Messages:
    7,093
    I didn't mean to come off as confrontational. And I might not have, had I remembered to say that one (the royal you) must look at the battleground state polls. The only reason I mention it is that it was hard-won knowledge from 2016. We were tracking national polls and thought Clinton looked like she had a safe lead, but Trump had found a constituency in three key states.

    Even apart from that, though, I'm not sure I do believe national polls can serve as an indicator. Millions and millions more in NY and CA who are enraged about Trump are going to show up in the national polls, but won't mean diddly to those states that always go blue.
     
    Birdjaguar likes this.
  14. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd Rest in Peace Black Panther

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    18,507
    Location:
    Wakanda Forever
    I do remember the pie/egg in face we got in 2016, but that is part of why I feel comfortable being lazy, just looking at the national polls for now. The 2.1% that Hillary won by was exactly the 2% lead that she had going into the last couple days of the election as I recall. So when I say that Biden is toast with a 2% or less lead, I'm thinking about 2016 specifically. With a 7% lead I think he's a pretty safe bet... as long as that 7% lead actually manifests on election night/week(s).

    Now if Biden's polling lead shrinks down to 3%... which I think it might, if I'm being honest... you bet I'll be desperately scouring those battleground state polls, looking for some glimmer of hope.

    In any case... see? "royal you" can be useful afterall ;)
     
  15. Takhisis

    Takhisis Jinping, wer fragt uns?

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2005
    Messages:
    50,334
    Location:
    up yours!
    It does not exist!!!
    Actually everybody has to live with the consequences of what the US does. The US dollar is the world's currency. US court decisions and decisions by the Federal Reserve can cause a financial crisis and millions of jobs lost overnight without any input from us. US companies own our media. The US has troops to enforce military alliances all over our lands and seas. So definitely we should and do care.
     
  16. Takhisis

    Takhisis Jinping, wer fragt uns?

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2005
    Messages:
    50,334
    Location:
    up yours!
    Just remember that there's fine people on both sides.

    Revealed: pro-Trump activists plotted violence ahead of Portland rallies
    Patriots Coalition members suggested political assassinations and said ‘laws will be broken, people will get hurt’, leaked chats show

    Leaked chat logs show Portland-area pro-Trump activists planning and training for violence, sourcing arms and ammunition and even suggesting political assassinations ahead of a series of contentious rallies in the Oregon city, including one scheduled for this weekend.

    Spoiler :
    The chats on the GroupMe app, shared with the Guardian by the antifascist group Eugene Antifa, show conversations between Oregon members of the Patriots Coalition growing more extreme as they discuss armed confrontations with leftwing Portland activists, and consume a steady diet of online disinformation about protests and wildfires.

    At times, rightwing activists discuss acts of violence at recent, contentious protests, which in some cases they were recorded carrying out. At one point, David Willis, a felon currently being sued for his alleged role in an earlier episode of political violence, joins a discussion about the use of paintballs.

    Where other members had previously suggested freezing the paintballs for maximum damage, Willis wrote: “They make glass breaker balls that are rubber coated metal. They also have pepper balls but they are about 3 dollars a ball. Don’t freeze paintballs it makes them wildly inaccurate” [sic.]

    Willis did not immediately respond to voice and text messages sent to his listed cellphone number.

    Another prolific poster is Mark Melchi, a 41-year-old Dallas, Oregon-based car restorer who claims to have served as a captain in the US army.

    Melchi has been recorded leading an armed pro-Trump militia, “1776 2.0” into downtown confrontations in Portland, including on 22 August. At several points in the chat he proposes violence in advance of those confrontations, and appears to confess to prior acts committed in the company of his paramilitary group.

    In advance of the 22 August protest, Melchi wrote: “It’s going to be bloody and most likely shooting, they’re definitely armed… so let’s make sure we have an organized direction of movement and direction of clearing or other Patriots will be caught in the possible cross fire. When **** hits the fan.”

    He advised other members to ignore weapons statutes, writing, “I saw someone say bats, mace, and stun guns are illegal downtown. If you’re going to play by the books tomorrow night, we already lost. We are here to make a change, laws will be broken, people will get hurt… It’s lawlessness downtown, and people need to be prepared for bad things.”

    Following these comments, several rightwing demonstrators were recorded using gas and bats on 22 August, where Melchi and his militia were also present.

    In other remarks ahead of the day, Melchi draws on what he claims is his group’s history of traveling to multiple states to engage in violence at protests.

    “My Group 1776 2.0. Has been fighting Antifa in Seattle, Portland, for months”, Melchi writes, adding “this won’t be a simple fist fight. People will get shot, stabbed and beat.”

    He also claims police cooperation in interstate violence, writing “Yes, going after them at night is the solution… Like we do in other states, tactical ambushes at night while backing up the police are key. You get the leaders and the violent ones and the police are happy to shut their mouths and cameras.”

    Melchi nevertheless recommends that members disguise themselves to avoid the consequences of homicide.

    “We must be ready to defend with lethal response… Suggest wearing mask and nothing to identify you on Camera…to prevent any future prosecution.”

    In response to detailed questions about these contributions, Melchi responded with an email that falsely suggested his comments might have been photoshopped, and concluded with direct threats.

    Melchi wrote: “I suggest you don’t threaten combat veterans sweetheart, might get a little uncomfortable for ya big guy!”

    Melchi’s sentiments in the chat logs were in keeping with fantasies of, and plans for, violence, which are constantly discussed by group members.

    Although some members are connected with extremist groups or militias, on the whole they describe themselves as “patriots”, and they express no clear ideology beyond a hatred of the left, and a preparedness to use violence. The shared allegiances expressed in the group are mostly to the police, the United States and Donald Trump, a person whom some say they are prepared to kill for.

    Ahead of 22 August, a user “Paige” says “I’m waiting for the presidential go to start open firing”.

    Melchi, the militia leader, responds, “Well Saturday may be that go lol”.

    Alex Newhouse, the digital research lead at the Center for Terrorism, Extremism, and Counterterrorism at the Middlebury Institute, said of the group that “the main mechanism that makes these communities so dangerous is the incessant desensitization to the idea of political violence”.

    Newhouse said that the ideas expressed in the group were entrenched in “extreme nationalism – that a few strong men with guns can together take out an evil that is at once imagined as an existential threat, and pathetically weak”. Newhouse added that the group’s discussions “fit within a broader trend of rightwing extremists becoming more accelerationist over time”.

    The chatlogs became fractious at the peak of Oregon’s recent wildfire emergency. While some members said they had gone to rural areas to “hunt” imagined antifa arsonists, others became concerned about the dangers.

    As early as 9 September, the baseless idea that the fires were a coordinated arson attack was treated as settled fact, with Melchi writing: “People have officially died from these Antifa Fires. I’d shoot them on site” [sic], and another user, Dub, responding: “Yes sir if I see them they are getting dropped where they stand.”

    When adverse consequences of vigilantism became evident, leadership attempted to bring the group back under control. After a member of the group reported that an associate had been arrested in Lane county for “holding [someone] at gunpoint”, the group’s administrator, who used the user name Patriot Coalition, wrote “STOP HOLDING PEOPLE AT GUN POINT- STOP PULLING YOUR WEAPONS… VIDEO- TAKE PICTURES AND CALL 911.”

    Mary McCord is the legal director of the Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection at Georgetown Law School, which on Wednesday released a series of fact sheets on anti-paramilitary laws in all 50 states.

    Given details of the content of the chats, McCord said that “this is the kind of thing that might allow authorities to take action”, and that members of the group may “already be in violation of Oregon’s anti-paramilitary laws”.

    The group also talked about coordinating at the rally with the Proud Boys, an extreme rightwing group. One user, identified as Bravo91 and a part of the group’s leadership, spoke of phone calls with the Proud Boys.

    Along with antifascist demonstrators, Democratic politicians are also the target of violent fantasies in the chats. In particular, Portland’s mayor, Ted Wheeler, is demonized and nominated as a possible target for assassination by the group.

    On 24 August, a user identified as “Trent-Medford” writes, “fudge wheeler… guess what soon as we are done with these punks. He’s next freakin coward !!!!!!”

    User T Durden went further. In response to news that an alleged arsonist had been released on bail, and without encountering disagreement, they wrote: “Maybe we need to start taking care of the justice ourselves!”, adding, “Start with justice on our DA and then move on to the governor. Maybe by the time we get to the first judge, they will have changed their tunes.”
     
    Phrossack likes this.
  17. Gori the Grey

    Gori the Grey The Poster

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2009
    Messages:
    7,093
    one

    From Friendly Fire's post earlier.

    I wish the press would just quit asking him questions like this. One knows what kind of answer one is going to get. And every time he gets to say this crap, it normalizes it the tiniest degree more. If (as is almost certain) he tries to suppress some ballots, there will literally be some defenders citing this saying "Well, he told you he was going to do so," and for some percentage of the population, that will be some kind of rationale.

    Anyway, since we're in Clown Car, I'm going to build a (mordant) limerick on this. Back in a bit.
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2020
    Sommerswerd likes this.
  18. Phrossack

    Phrossack Armored Fish and Armored Men

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2008
    Messages:
    6,012
    Like I said, Europe (and other parts) get the nuclear fallout; we get the nuclear blast.

    My point is that not only do Americans have the most at stake, and not only do we actually live and experience things in the US first hand, but there's a consistent attitude from foreign leftists , especially on this site, that if we can't vote for a leftist, we shouldn't vote for any presidential candidate at all and deserve whatever we get. This attitude is not born of concern for the well-being of Americans - there is basically none at all, as far as can be seen - but from a bitter hatred of neoliberals and a desire to defeat them at any cost, including the lives and well-being of Americans. After all, what do they care about us? They don't. At all.

    I for one rather resent being seen as an expendable guinea pig for their political experiments and will vote the way I think will do the least harm to me and my country.
     
    hobbsyoyo likes this.
  19. onejayhawk

    onejayhawk Afflicted with reason

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2002
    Messages:
    13,528
    Location:
    next to George Bush's parents
    The Post and Times are hiding the light they are supposed to shine.

    And both will be right.

    Nah. It will not be that close.

    538 did an article on this subject. https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...ut-polls-could-still-be-missing-some-of-them/

    Yet even though the polls in 2016 performed reasonably well, part of the reason we’re still talking about shy Trump voters is because the state polls had higher levels of error, especially in some key battleground states in 2016 that decided the election. Moreover, polls showed a large percentage of undecided and third-party voters in the lead-up to the 2016 contest, which produced a sizable number of late deciders who ended up disproportionately backing Trump.​

    The debate is next week. It will be interesting to see what comes of that. For once Trump is considered the favorite. How well will he defend that lead?

    J
     
    Old Hippy likes this.
  20. Takhisis

    Takhisis Jinping, wer fragt uns?

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2005
    Messages:
    50,334
    Location:
    up yours!
    It's amazing how onejayhawk always gets an upvote from Old Hippy in these threads within a few minutes of posting.
    I always hold that the prime victims of an authoritarian government are its own governees. So yes.
    But many decisions e.g. by the Fed mean that the US gains some benefit (or not) and entire countries are screwed along the line.
     
    Old Hippy likes this.

Share This Page