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Combat odds ...

Discussion in 'Civ4 - Strategy & Tips' started by berserks01, Jun 12, 2006.

  1. berserks01

    berserks01 Obviously Very Confused

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    Anyone ever noticed combat odds are basically useless?

    I've had many cases where combat odds are > 70% in my favor and I'd loose ... many of which are in the 90% chances. It's just infuriating :mad: .

    Just wondering of anyone else having the same experiences or if it's just my bad luck.
     
  2. VoiceOfUnreason

    VoiceOfUnreason Deity

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    When I've tested combat odds (by setting up the equivalent situation in worldbuilder), I've found that the experimental rate matches the odds listed by the calendar fairly closely.

    I've only run tests with fully healed units, though. While I haven't seen any obvious mistakes while inspecting the code, it wouldn't surprise me terribly if the odds calculator wasn't quite getting the Strength/Power relationship right for wounded units.
     
  3. MrCynical

    MrCynical Deity

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    1)Why have you started an exact duplicate of a thread that's barely halfway down the first page?

    2)70% odds means you have a 30% chance of losing. It is therefore not remotely surprising that you lose some of the time.

    3)All experimental testing of the combat odds indicates that they are correct when averaged over a large number of combats. However humans have very selective memories, and look for patterns where none exist, which can create the impression the odds are against you. There is also the issue that humans rarely attack when the odds are extremely low, so you don't have counterbalancing memories of the times you win with a less than 1% chance of doing so. When ever I get an especially unlucky result, I always remember the occasions when "suicide" caatapults have actually managed to win, at odds of about 0.2%.
     
  4. Beamup

    Beamup Higgs boson

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    If you didn't have such cases, that would indicate that the combat odds are useless, as they'd be completely wrong.

    Read up on some basic probability - 70% or 90% odds are most certainly not a guarantee. You should lose about a third of fights with 70% odds in your favor, and about one in ten of fights with 90%.
     
  5. harpy2

    harpy2 Chieftain

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    I've taken notes to verify my sense that the ODDS JUST LIE, I've counted that when odds are over 7)% in my favor I still lose at an extremely high rate. I've compared these figures to times when I win with combat odds under 50%. I lose with combat over 70% almost 40 to compared to how often I win with odds lower than 50%. Something's wrong. The odds aren't on the level. I assume they must have some trick formula that techically allows this basically deceitful practice.
     
  6. Beamup

    Beamup Higgs boson

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    Uh-huh. How about some actual data to back up outlandish claims like that?
     
  7. Dragonwrenn

    Dragonwrenn Chieftain

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    Probability states that you will win %70 of all battles. It doesn't say you will win 7 out of 10 battles, or 70 out of 100. It just says you will eventually win %70. You could loose every single battle 1 day, and then win all of them the next.
    Basic probability.
     
  8. tycoonist

    tycoonist Deity

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    holy thread resurrection batman

    oh and combat odds don't lie. you are just unlucky
     
  9. dirtyparrot

    dirtyparrot Upholding Brannigan's Law

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    But, if you lose five straight battles in which you had a 70% chance of wiining in each has only a 0.243% chance of happening. While the odds might match up over a really long sample, there does seem to be some unnatural streakiness to it. I've never had anything more than a basic stats course, but I would assume that if someone were to flip a coin 40 times and the first 20 times it landed heads and the next 20 times it landed tails that something funny was happening (even if it matched the theoretical probability).

    This is purely annecdotal, but I feel that the probability of mounted units surviving from flanking promotions seems a bit off. I would love to know where or not this is true from someone who has tested this out.
     
  10. TheWilltoAct

    TheWilltoAct I am observe

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    Doooooood. Ownage.

    beamup shows up to defend assertions he made over three years ago :eek:

    ...

    :goodjob:

    EDIT

    i kno rite :lol:
     
  11. VoiceOfUnreason

    VoiceOfUnreason Deity

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    And in less than two minutes.

     
  12. TheWilltoAct

    TheWilltoAct I am observe

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    @ VoU - And seemingly just as zealous in his argument as if it was that one day, three years ago, ... :lol:

     
  13. Beamup

    Beamup Higgs boson

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    Hate to wreck everyone's amusement, but it really was just coincidence...
     
  14. Silence101

    Silence101 King

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    Last night, I lost three battles in a row at +80% (one was +90%)... but that kind of thing rarely ever happens.
     
  15. DementedAvenger

    DementedAvenger Prince

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    The combat calculator is a really stupid idea in the FIRST place, because there are only 2 possible outcomes (either you win, or you lose). Therefore, EVERY SINGLE BATTLE has a 50% win probability. It's simple probability, you divide the ways you can win by the total number of outcomes, which is 1/2, which is 50%.
     
  16. TheWilltoAct

    TheWilltoAct I am observe

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    Apologies mate, I got a little too excited perhaps, though surely you have to admit it was quite the coincidence!

    You're wrong.
     
  17. r_rolo1

    r_rolo1 King of myself

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    So, you should believe that a top of form Cassius Clay vs some 50 year fat guy also has 50/50 chances, right? Or Cassius Clay wins or the fat guy wins... 2 possible outcomes. It's simple probability, you divide the ways you can win by the total number of outcomes, which is 1/2, which is 50%. [/sarcasm]
     
  18. Lansky

    Lansky King

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    Pssh who ever heard of this Cassius Clay. Next you'll be telling me that Lew Alcindor sounds like the name of a great athlete as well.
     
  19. Beamup

    Beamup Higgs boson

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    In retrospect I guess it was, though I didn't actually realize the extent of the coincidence until it was pointed out.
     
  20. r_rolo1

    r_rolo1 King of myself

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    @Lansky

    What ever. Fill Cassius Clay with anything better than a average 50 year old fat dude.... the result is the same :D
     

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