Combat odds ...

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berserks01

Obviously Very Confused
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Apr 22, 2005
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Anyone ever noticed combat odds are basically useless?

I've had many cases where combat odds are > 70% in my favor and I'd loose ... many of which are in the 90% chances. It's just infuriating :mad: .

Just wondering of anyone else having the same experiences or if it's just my bad luck.
 
berserks01 said:
Anyone ever noticed combat odds are basically useless?

I've had many cases where combat odds are > 70% in my favor and I'd loose ... many of which are in the 90% chances. It's just infuriating :mad: .

Just wondering of anyone else having the same experiences or if it's just my bad luck.
Click to expand...

When I've tested combat odds (by setting up the equivalent situation in worldbuilder), I've found that the experimental rate matches the odds listed by the calendar fairly closely.

I've only run tests with fully healed units, though. While I haven't seen any obvious mistakes while inspecting the code, it wouldn't surprise me terribly if the odds calculator wasn't quite getting the Strength/Power relationship right for wounded units.
 
1)Why have you started an exact duplicate of a thread that's barely halfway down the first page?

2)70% odds means you have a 30% chance of losing. It is therefore not remotely surprising that you lose some of the time.

3)All experimental testing of the combat odds indicates that they are correct when averaged over a large number of combats. However humans have very selective memories, and look for patterns where none exist, which can create the impression the odds are against you. There is also the issue that humans rarely attack when the odds are extremely low, so you don't have counterbalancing memories of the times you win with a less than 1% chance of doing so. When ever I get an especially unlucky result, I always remember the occasions when "suicide" caatapults have actually managed to win, at odds of about 0.2%.
 
berserks01 said:
Anyone ever noticed combat odds are basically useless?

I've had many cases where combat odds are > 70% in my favor and I'd loose ... many of which are in the 90% chances.
Click to expand...
If you didn't have such cases, that would indicate that the combat odds are useless, as they'd be completely wrong.

Read up on some basic probability - 70% or 90% odds are most certainly not a guarantee. You should lose about a third of fights with 70% odds in your favor, and about one in ten of fights with 90%.
 
I've taken notes to verify my sense that the ODDS JUST LIE, I've counted that when odds are over 7)% in my favor I still lose at an extremely high rate. I've compared these figures to times when I win with combat odds under 50%. I lose with combat over 70% almost 40 to compared to how often I win with odds lower than 50%. Something's wrong. The odds aren't on the level. I assume they must have some trick formula that techically allows this basically deceitful practice.
 
Uh-huh. How about some actual data to back up outlandish claims like that?
 
harpy2 said:
I've taken notes to verify my sense that the ODDS JUST LIE, I've counted that when odds are over 7)% in my favor I still lose at an extremely high rate. I've compared these figures to times when I win with combat odds under 50%. I lose with combat over 70% almost 40 to compared to how often I win with odds lower than 50%. Something's wrong. The odds aren't on the level. I assume they must have some trick formula that techically allows this basically deceitful practice.
Click to expand...

Probability states that you will win %70 of all battles. It doesn't say you will win 7 out of 10 battles, or 70 out of 100. It just says you will eventually win %70. You could loose every single battle 1 day, and then win all of them the next.
Basic probability.
 
Dragonwrenn said:
Probability states that you will win %70 of all battles. It doesn't say you will win 7 out of 10 battles, or 70 out of 100. It just says you will eventually win %70. You could loose every single battle 1 day, and then win all of them the next.
Basic probability.
Click to expand...

But, if you lose five straight battles in which you had a 70% chance of wiining in each has only a 0.243% chance of happening. While the odds might match up over a really long sample, there does seem to be some unnatural streakiness to it. I've never had anything more than a basic stats course, but I would assume that if someone were to flip a coin 40 times and the first 20 times it landed heads and the next 20 times it landed tails that something funny was happening (even if it matched the theoretical probability).

This is purely annecdotal, but I feel that the probability of mounted units surviving from flanking promotions seems a bit off. I would love to know where or not this is true from someone who has tested this out.
 
Hate to wreck everyone's amusement, but it really was just coincidence...
 
Last night, I lost three battles in a row at +80% (one was +90%)... but that kind of thing rarely ever happens.
 
The combat calculator is a really stupid idea in the FIRST place, because there are only 2 possible outcomes (either you win, or you lose). Therefore, EVERY SINGLE BATTLE has a 50% win probability. It's simple probability, you divide the ways you can win by the total number of outcomes, which is 1/2, which is 50%.
 
beamup said:
Hate to wreck everyone's amusement, but it really was just coincidence...
Click to expand...

Apologies mate, I got a little too excited perhaps, though surely you have to admit it was quite the coincidence!

DementedAvenger said:
The combat calculator is a really stupid idea in the FIRST place, because there are only 2 possible outcomes (either you win, or you lose). Therefore, EVERY SINGLE BATTLE has a 50% win probability. It's simple probability, you divide the ways you can win by the total number of outcomes, which is 1/2, which is 50%.
Click to expand...

You're wrong.
 
DementedAvenger said:
The combat calculator is a really stupid idea in the FIRST place, because there are only 2 possible outcomes (either you win, or you lose). Therefore, EVERY SINGLE BATTLE has a 50% win probability. It's simple probability, you divide the ways you can win by the total number of outcomes, which is 1/2, which is 50%.
Click to expand...
So, you should believe that a top of form Cassius Clay vs some 50 year fat guy also has 50/50 chances, right? Or Cassius Clay wins or the fat guy wins... 2 possible outcomes. It's simple probability, you divide the ways you can win by the total number of outcomes, which is 1/2, which is 50%. [/sarcasm]
 
TheWilltoAct said:
Apologies mate, I got a little too excited perhaps, though surely you have to admit it was quite the coincidence!
Click to expand...
In retrospect I guess it was, though I didn't actually realize the extent of the coincidence until it was pointed out.
 
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