Combat odds ...

[jacklours]

@Lansky

What ever. Fill Cassius Clay with anything better than a average 50 year old fat dude.... the result is the same

I would actually bet against Cassius Clay if the fight was to happen tomorrow. Who is he anyways, it's not like the fat 50 year old dude was to fight Mohammed Ali, then perhaps I would rethink a bit.

 

[r_rolo1]

Reread the post that the quoted post is refering to. It says specifically "top of form" before the name of the fighter

 

[Lansky]

If we went back in time many years to their primes I'd put 300 bucks down on Mohammed Ali kicking the snot out of this Cassius Clay fellow as well.


^
I find this line of thought much more interesting than combat odds in Civ

 

[r_rolo1]

That also serves for the sake of the argument 50/50, you only have two possible outcomes and ( blah blah, oblivious that not all outcomes are made with the same odds of happening )

 

[jacklours]

Reread the post that the quoted post is refering to. It says specifically "top of form" before the name of the fighter

I stand corrected.



On a side note though what if Cassius Clay was to fight the fat guy in a CIV 4 match-up. I wonder what the odds would be ? In favor of the fat guy I would say



Nevermind like DementedAvenger said the odds would be 50/50, win or lose, stupid me.

 

[Gingi]

I would actually bet against Cassius Clay if the fight was to happen tomorrow. Who is he anyways, it's not like the fat 50 year old dude was to fight Mohammed Ali, then perhaps I would rethink a bit.

What the hell are you guys talking about!? Cassius Clay was the birth name of Mohammed Ali! I I don't know what you guys are smoking, but this discussion sounds so hilariously ******ed that I nearly crapped my pants. I don't know if I'm missing out on something (is this a joke?) but

Cassius Clay = Mohammed Ali

 

[ParadigmShifter]

Whoah, you must be programming in Fortran

Otherwise, variable names should be 1 token in size

so

Cassius_Clay = Mohammed_Ali

for intialisation

and

Cassius_Clay == Mohammed_Ali

for testing equivalence

 

[raxid]

Cassius Clay = Mohammed Ali

Egads man! Even if we were to overlook the fact that your variables are two tokens, as previously mentioned, you're setting Cassius Clay equal to Mohammed Ali. Meaning Ali was defined earlier than Clay, contradicting your previous argument!

It should read :

 mohammedAli = cassiusClay

 

[VoiceOfUnreason]

Time released trolling? I'm a lot more impressed now than I was seven months ago.

 

[vicawoo]

What's wrong with you people?

 

[reverend oats]

The combat calculator is a really stupid idea in the FIRST place, because there are only 2 possible outcomes (either you win, or you lose). Therefore, EVERY SINGLE BATTLE has a 50% win probability. It's simple probability, you divide the ways you can win by the total number of outcomes, which is 1/2, which is 50%.

whaaa?blrglsmrglwthhunnnnnh?bububububu.... *kaboom*

 

[eireksten]

But, if you lose five straight battles in which you had a 70% chance of wiining in each has only a 0.243% chance of happening. While the odds might match up over a really long sample, there does seem to be some unnatural streakiness to it.

I realize this thread is really outdated, but I just had to comment on this. After all, we can't have someone being wrong on the internet.

Even though you'd be correct in the case where you intentionally set up 5 battles to test this, it isn't the same when observed through a game of civ.

There is a difference between the probability of losing 5 out of 5 battles (with a 70% win chance) and losing 5 in a row in between a series of 20 (or any other number larger than 5) battles. In fact, the probability is increased to 0.4131% by only adding a single battle!

Losing 5 or more battles in a row in a sequence of 10 battles has a probability of 1.09%. In a sequence of 25 battles the probability is 3.6% and for 30 4.4%.

The point is that witnessing several losses in a row (even against the odds) shouldn't come as a huge surprise to anyone. It is bound to happen over a series of civ-games, or if you get slightly unlucky in the select few you play. If you play well enough, that shouldn't lose you the game though.

edit: Forgot to mention that I used 70% winning probability, as in the post I responded to, for these calculations.

More odds:
100 Battles: 15.26%
1000 Battles: 81.93%

 

[DigitalBoy]

Complaining about unlucky streaks, outlandishly wrong claims about probability, analogies with old boxers, and two separate necro's.

What a funny thread.

 

[jacklours]

Complaining about unlucky streaks, outlandishly wrong claims about probability, analogies with old boxers, and two separate necro's.

What a funny thread.

Hahaha I had to come back to it, I felt like I'd miss something otherwise

 

[raxid]

Complaining about unlucky streaks, outlandishly wrong claims about probability, analogies with old boxers, and two separate necro's.

What a funny thread.

Lets not forget about Beamup's insta-defend of a comment made 3 years prior. Possibly the best thing ever.

 

[r_rolo1]

Complaining about unlucky streaks, outlandishly wrong claims about probability, analogies with old boxers, and two separate necro's.

What a funny thread.

You forgot to add people that don't know the diference between 2 and 1 , since the only boxer mentioned in the thread so far was Cassius Clay/Mohammed Ali

But , yes, highly dangerous concentration of stuff for a thread with less than 2 complete pages

 

[klaidonis]

I am absolutely sure that every day I am walking on the streets I have 50% probability meeting a dinosaur. I am just really unlucky having not met it yet.

 

[jihe]

Lets not forget about Beamup's insta-defend of a comment made 3 years prior. Possibly the best thing ever.

Quite the pwnage

 

[Udey1]

There is a 100 percent probability that people will argue over relative probabilities in a probability thread in order to show just WHO was taken more stat.

 

[ParadigmShifter]

There is a 100 percent probability that people will argue over relative probabilities in a probability thread in order to show just WHO was taken more stat.

That will probably be me then (2 years at degree level). Do I win the internets?