Coronavirus Ε

[Zardnaar]

When the dust is settled it will also need to be looked at from the lens of each healthcare system; did America’s patchwork system result in having fewer people seek or get the treatment they need? I would think the difference will ultimately be statistically significant.

From what I understand USA is turning away most people from hospital under 60. Unless they're having trouble breathing.

 

[Kyriakos]

Number of deaths is still relatively small, even in the worst hit places.
Seems most of the lethal potential is due to lack of access to hospitals if there is a rush.

 

[amadeus]

From what I understand USA is turning away most people from hospital under 60. Unless they're having trouble breathing.

I don’t think that’s a fault of any inherent problem in the American medical system so much as it is case overload.

In terms of hospital capacity and physicians, it looks like the U.S. is not far off countries that have some form of nationalized healthcare and exceeds other industrial nations in some areas. (I’m not tooting any horns here, just laying out what I saw in figures.)

Maybe the problem won’t be as pronounced as the most vulnerable group, seniors, are enrolled in Medicare where I would assume there is some degree of guaranteed coverage. I’m really not familiar with how it works, though.

I suspect in another 10-20 years the U.S. will have some kind of publicly-funded healthcare coverage. Hopefully they don’t bone it.

 

[red_elk]

Head of Sberbank (largest bank in Russia), Moscow mayor and several government members were vaccinated.
https://lenta.ru/news/2020/10/25/gref/

Free mass vaccination is planned to start end of November.

 

[Josu]

Spain has declared today State of Alarm, again.
This allows govenment to stablish curfews, total or partial confinations and so on.
It is expected that this State will last until April

 

[amadeus]

Head of Sberbank (largest bank in Russia), Moscow mayor and several government members were vaccinated.

Voluntarily or Russian voluntarily?

 

[Sommerswerd]

Voluntarily or Russian voluntarily?

If you have to reassure people in other countries that its voluntary... its the latter.

Number of deaths is still relatively small, even in the worst hit places.
Seems most of the lethal potential is due to lack of access to hospitals if there is a rush.

USA#1

 

[red_elk]

Voluntarily or Russian voluntarily?

Of course voluntary. Who wants to spend the rest of his life in Siberia?

 

[Zelig]

America has reported something like 8 million cases and .2 million deaths. That’s a mortality rate of 2.5% just based off those numbers. Is it really 2.5%, or are cases being undercounted, not tested, or what?

I raise the question because a Forbes article mentioned some 8 million cases, and I thought given the numbers the way they are, it sounds to me like cases are not being registered at some point.

The rate now here in Japan is 1.7% based on counted statistics, which makes me think they’re undercounting them here too. I’m not saying it’s intentional, but I don’t see how you could get around it unless you tested the whole 126 million people here simultaneously and with 100% accuracy, neither of which are plausible.

1% seems to be on the high end of good estimates of IFR.

Serological tests in my jurisdiction (Alberta) puts IFR at around 0.2%, with a relatively low rate of undercounted cases.

 

[FriendlyFire]

300K dead by the end of the year is looking certain with the way things are aheaded in the US
That is a shocking number of dead.

White House signals defeat in pandemic as coronavirus outbreak roils Pence’s office
The presidential campaign was roiled this weekend by a fresh outbreak of the novel coronavirus at the White House that infected at least five aides or advisers to Vice President Pence, a spread that President Trump’s top staffer acknowledged Sunday he had tried to avoid disclosing to the public.
With the election a little over a week away, the new White House outbreak spotlighted the administration’s failure to contain the pandemic as hospitalizations surge across much of the United States and daily new cases hit all-time highs.
The outbreak around Pence, who chairs the White House’s coronavirus task force, undermines the argument Trump has been making to voters that the country is “rounding the turn,” as the president put it at a rally Sunday in New Hampshire.
The vice president continued Sunday with his heavy travel schedule, flying to North Carolina for an evening rally in Kinston. He told aides that he was determined to keep up his appearances through the week despite his potential exposure, irrespective of guidelines

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...3bb382-16d5-11eb-befb-8864259bd2d8_story.html

 

[Arwon]

Victoria is ending the lockdown and starting to reopen in staggered stages. It just had its first donut day (0 cases) since early June, and has gotten its unknown origin cases down to 7 in the last fortnight and an average of under 4 cases a day in total over that time.

After a last surge of testing came back today, the level of cases has been deemed enough to start opening back up (the 0 day wasn't strictly a trigger, they've been very close to 0 a couple of times this last week).

Ended straight away are the harshest features which constitute the actual lockdown (ie, only 4 reasons to leave the home, most stuff closed). Restaurants, pubs and retail are opening tomorrow, with all the covid safe requirements of course. "Get on the beers" is trending.

At the moment there's still a 25km travel restriction and a border around Melbourne separating it from the rest of Victoria, but in a couple of weeks they'll lift that. I expect that they'll start talking about the NSW and ACT border opening up a bit after that. God knows what the minor states will do, though.

As far as major second waves go, I think Victoria, Hong Kong, and Singapore are maybe the only places to have gone from thousands of cases to a single digit trickle. Other successes in stopping a resurgence either never got so big (eg Vietnam, NZ, NSW) or have controlled cases at a steady but higher number of cases (eg South Korea and I think Japan).

 

[Zardnaar]

Victoria is ending the lockdown and starting to reopen in staggered stages. It just had its first donut day (0 cases) since early June, and has gotten its unknown origin cases down to 7 in the last fortnight and an average of under 4 cases a day in total over that time.

After a last surge of testing came back today, the level of cases has been deemed enough to start opening back up (the 0 day wasn't strictly a trigger, they've been very close to 0 a couple of times this last week).

Ended straight away are the harshest features which constitute the actual lockdown (ie, only 4 reasons to leave the home, most stuff closed). Restaurants, pubs and retail are opening tomorrow, with all the covid safe requirements of course. "Get on the beers" is trending.

At the moment there's still a 25km travel restriction and a border around Melbourne separating it from the rest of Victoria, but in a couple of weeks they'll lift that. I expect that they'll start talking about the NSW and ACT border opening up a bit after that. God knows what the minor states will do, though.

As far as major second waves go, I think Victoria, Hong Kong, and Singapore are maybe the only places to have gone from thousands of cases to a single digit trickle. Other successes in stopping a resurgence either never got so big (eg Vietnam, NZ, NSW) or have controlled cases at a steady but higher number of cases (eg South Korea and I think Japan).

How many total in Victoria? Did the government do wage subsidies or other support?

If you jump on it early 7 weeks or so to wipe out. This took 3 months?

Well done enjoy. Victoria Bitter bleah.

 

[uppi]

1% seems to be on the high end of good estimates of IFR.

Serological tests in my jurisdiction (Alberta) puts IFR at around 0.2%, with a relatively low rate of undercounted cases.

If you consider that New Jersey and New York are close to 0.2% deaths per population and numbers are nevertheless on the rise again, this seems rather low.

Although it might be 0.2% with first-world Healthcare.

 

[amadeus]

@uppi, I think that depends on which demographic groups are seeing the rise in infections. The elderly as well as minority populations have been statistically more vulnerable than young(er) whites.

 

[The_J]

It seems that France will try to compete with Russia for the 4th place .

EDIT: For total infections.

 

[Kyriakos]

It seems that France will try to compete with Russia for the 4th place .

If you mean for total number of deaths, I don't think so. It will be hard for either to overtake Britain (at #5) already.

 

[Verbose]

It seems that France will try to compete with Russia for the 4th place .

Well it could.

Age is the greatest risk factor with Covid-19. And while Russia has over twice the total population of France, if comparing the 70+ population it means approx. 10 million Frenchmen to 14 million Russians – and since it poses greater statistical danger to males than females, it also matters that the male 70+ population is roughly the same in both countries, about 4 million.

 

[Josu]

Curfew allready stablished in Spain.
Nobody can be out of their homes from 23:00 to 6:00. Autonomies have the right to change this to 22:00-5:00 or 24:00-7:00.

Some Autonomies, such as Basque Country, where I live, will stablish today more restrictions.

 

[Zardnaar]

Well it could.

Age is the greatest risk factor with Covid-19. And while Russia has over twice the total population of France, if comparing the 70+ population it means approx. 10 million Frenchmen to 14 million Russians – and since it poses greater statistical danger to males than females, it also matters that the male 70+ population is roughly the same in both countries, about 4 million.

Russia has a younger population iirc.

Alot of their older people already dead.

 

[EnglishEdward]

From what I understand USA is turning away most people from hospital under 60. Unless they're having trouble breathing.

I don’t think that’s a fault of any inherent problem in the American medical system so much as it is case overload.

It is much the same in the UK. Where I am in Norfolk the policy is that unless they
have other co-morbidities factors they should stay at home if they can breathe OK.