Coronavirus 12: Don't Abandon Hope

[Kyriakos]

We're also 'lucky' that so many advanced regional health authorities are trying different experiments, because it will allow us to tease out data for the future.
We're also having a hard time measuring what we consider 'success' or 'failure', mainly because we disagree on what's the actual goal. Zero in the ICU? A steady ICU caseload? Zero transmission amongst the vaccinated? Nevermind how much we're willing to pay for each percentage success on each of those indicators.

Success is well-defined regardless of the game's outcome, when it is tied strictly to mere participation.

Also, has there been any study about effects from the measures to very young kids? A considerable number of 5-6 year olds have lived 1/3 of their life in rather unusual circumstances, and it is unlikely this won't lead to stuff down the line.

 

[Ferocitus]

Simple question really - can you as a fully vaccinated person go there without jumping through hoops, without quarantine, and without the risk of having to cancel the trip.

Well, that depends on when you want the answer.
40 minutes ago it was...

New rules for interstate arrivals

Yesterday, SA Police announced changes to testing requirements for travellers entering South Australia, which will come into effect from Sunday.

Anyone entering the state from low-risk or moderate-risk LGAs such as Melbourne and Sydney will need to show proof of a negative COVID-19 test within 72 hours prior to arriving.

Previously they only needed to have a test, but not wait for a negative result.

Any close contacts of positive COVID-19 cases within the past seven days will not be allowed to enter South Australia.

If they have been a close contact within the previous fortnight, they must have a COVID-19 test on day 13 in addition to the usual required tests.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-27/south-australia-records-three-new-cases/100655814

 

[Kyriakos]

We'll run out of Greek letters soon. I propose switching to Cyrillic in next vaяiaиts

 

[innonimatu]

We don't know how that's gonna work out, hopefully it's nothing...

France has yesterday announced mandatory booster shots from January 15 on. Accordingly this morning the biggest website to book the vaccination was down. Gonna have a look later.

EDIT: Eh, seems they were not prepared for this. Earliest possible appointment December 14, and that at the half of the places which currently isn't fully booked until February .

What a wonderful policy, let's all hope. Not prevent, just hope?
If it isn't this one that escapes or turns much worse, it'll be another. How long will you take to accept that while this virus is allowed to circulate, it mutates and creates new variants? It's a matter of time until a worse one spreads.

You want some "good" news? Once enough humans who are too silly to stop spreading the virus die, the pandemic will finally end. The way this is being handled that's the outcome. It will take a turn for the worse - a matter of time - and a few hundred million dead.

We know for a fact that this virus mutates very fast. We know for a fact that absent intervention it keeps spreading new mutations. We know for a fact that it can get much worse (sars and mers).
But let's all just hope it won't. Brilliant huh?
And the vaccines that have not stop its spread and mutating into new variants will save us. Sure thing.

 

[innonimatu]

The fact that it's the name of a major world leader so has political associations, and most parts of the world probably having no idea how to pronounce the name of the letter (shee, shye, chee, chye, khee, khye, tsee, tsye?) probably.

And will no one think of Lrrr?

(can't be all doom and gloom...)

On a serious note, our deal leaders will have to face reality. But they will only after the death toll gets worse. Waste.

 

[stfoskey12]

>I also have a cousin in Louisiana, and his kids don’t even wear masks indoors in school, while my children wear them when playing outside during recess. And they have even less transmission in their area

Louisiana has the 4th most per capita COVID deaths and is soon going to overtake New Jersey (it's now at 318 per 100,000 while NJ is 319/100,000), and join the trio of deep south COVID terrible areas, with Mississippi and Alabama. And Lousinia of the Trio has the most COVID restrictions and marginally has a higher vaccination rate, likely because they have a Democratic Governor, while the other two don't.

You really can't compare data points from a single point in time to conclude if restrictions work or not, because of the ebb and flow of waves. The South right now has low covid cases not because it controlled them with restrictions, but because it largely blazed through and killed a ton of people.

Also doesn't seem to understand deaths are a lagging indicator. And that localities having mask mandates or not isn't the factor. It's the percentage of people who actually wear it, and wear it properly. Japan technically never had a mask mandate, because everybody there wore their masks, and did so properly. While American mask mandates seem to very easily be flouted, particularly since the cops have no interest in enforcing it, and often openly break it as well.

Making all these basic errors is either stupidity or more likely bad faith, from a conservative making a twisted liberty argument.

I agree that restrictions have an effect. However, some people think that effect is better than the loss of freedom, and other people think it is worse. It's sort of interesting how wide the range of views on that is.

As a double (and soon-to-be-triple) vaccinated 23-year-old, I'd rather not have restrictions (barring omicron being terrible).

 

[innonimatu]

(barring omicron being terrible).

Everything points to it being.

 

[Samson]

Everything points to it being.

This is true, but "everything" is just a few tens of PRC tests in South Africa. I certainly would not bet against it, but we have pretty little data at this point.

 

[The_J]

What a wonderful policy, let's all hope. Not prevent, just hope?

Hey, I'm not against stopping the flights, that actually makes sense.

If it isn't this one that escapes or turns much worse, it'll be another. How long will you take to accept that while this virus is allowed to circulate, it mutates and creates new variants? It's a matter of time until a worse one spreads.

You want some "good" news? Once enough humans who are too silly to stop spreading the virus die, the pandemic will finally end. The way this is being handled that's the outcome. It will take a turn for the worse - a matter of time - and a few hundred million dead.

We know for a fact that this virus mutates very fast. We know for a fact that absent intervention it keeps spreading new mutations. We know for a fact that it can get much worse (sars and mers).
But let's all just hope it won't. Brilliant huh?
And the vaccines that have not stop its spread and mutating into new variants will save us. Sure thing.

Working so far with influenza, doesn't it?

 

[red_elk]

View attachment 615141

So, all we need is to name next variant Omega.

 

[Hrothbern]

Hey, I'm not against stopping the flights, that actually makes sense.



Working so far with influenza, doesn't it?

We had yesterday from before the 12.00 noon flight stop, two flights with in total 600 passengers who tested for 10% positive on Covid.
People from earlier flights now being called to test centra.

Fingers crossed that none have this omicron (is under investigation now).
But the scary version is ofc that we got already in the past weeks this virus strain imported.

 

[red_elk]

It looks like this new variant may displace Delta in next months. Still unclear how dangerous it is and to what extent antibodies from vaccines and previous infections will be effective against it. Scientists say vaccines can be easily adapted to it, but it's only required if protection becomes significantly less effective. Not sure how long it will take to approve these adapted vaccines though. If it takes another round of clinical testing, we may get next variant before vaccine for the previous one is approved.

 

[Hrothbern]

It looks like this new variant may displace Delta in next months. Still unclear how dangerous it is and to what extent antibodies from vaccines and previous infections will be effective against it. Scientists say vaccines can be easily adapted to it, but it's only required if protection becomes significantly less effective. Not sure how long it will take to approve these adapted vaccines though. If it takes another round of clinical testing, we may get next variant before vaccine for the previous one is approved.

It is then all about buying time.

"Lucky coincidence" for some countries that because of the high confirmed cases rate a new social distance strictness was already ongoing or planned.
We need time to establish how well existing vaccins work, time how well triple vaccinate people have resistance (Israel interesting), and time what tweaking of vaccins is needed and in how far (like with the flu) vaccins can be designed multi-strain.
BionTech mentioned a default 100 days to get mass production of a tweaked vaccin.
Again groundhog winter.

 

[sendos]

I demand a Lambda variant. Then we must...prepare for unforeseen consequences.

 

[Samson]

I demand a Lambda variant. Then we must...prepare for unforeseen consequences.

There is one.

 

[AmazonQueen]

1st cases of Omicron variant in UK.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coro...fected-areas/ar-AARcdAE?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

 

[Drakle]

Like a week or two ago, all the media and the federal government here in Australia were beating on Queensland, because the State by itself decided to keep pressing forward with purpose build quarantine facilities. After the feds kept promising to look into it, and never doing it, despite multiple outbreak escapes. Going oh such a waste of money. You know while the Federal Government is full of the same people that botched multiple infrastructure projects. Now Queensland's choice is looking much better.


Anyway, I wonder. Is it just luck of the draw, or is this some other factor that has led to varients developing mainly in the Indian Sub Continent and Southern Africa? If you go by recorded cases, the majority of cases have been in Northern America and Europe, and it ballons even further with South America. Yet the new varients keep seeming to pop up in those places. I keep expecting to hear of the next notable variant to be a US one, but it hasn't happened. Of course it's a small sample size, so it could be just luck. Just interesting.

 

[Samson]

Is it just luck of the draw, or is this some other factor that has led to varients developing mainly in the Indian Sub Continent and Southern Africa?

Looking down the list of named variants:

• Alpha - South East of England
  
• Beta - South Africa
  
• Gamma - Brazil, particularly associated with Manaus, Amazonas
  
• Delta - India
  
• Kappa - India
  
• Epsilon - California
  
• Eta - Nigeria?
  
• Iota - New York state
  
• Lambda - South America. Early sequences are predominantly from Peru and Chile
  
• Mu - South America. Early sequences are predominantly from Colombia

I suspect it is a function pretty purely of cases, and there are a lot of undetected cases in SA and India. Compounded by it not being found when there is no sequencing going on.

 

[Arwon]

Like a week or two ago, all the media and the federal government here in Australia were beating on Queensland, because the State by itself decided to keep pressing forward with purpose build quarantine facilities. After the feds kept promising to look into it, and never doing it, despite multiple outbreak escapes. Going oh such a waste of money. You know while the Federal Government is full of the same people that botched multiple infrastructure projects. Now Queensland's choice is looking much better.


Anyway, I wonder. Is it just luck of the draw, or is this some other factor that has led to varients developing mainly in the Indian Sub Continent and Southern Africa? If you go by recorded cases, the majority of cases have been in Northern America and Europe, and it ballons even further with South America. Yet the new varients keep seeming to pop up in those places. I keep expecting to hear of the next notable variant to be a US one, but it hasn't happened. Of course it's a small sample size, so it could be just luck. Just interesting.

Those two areas each contain well over a billion people. Together Sub Saharan Africa and the Indian sub continent are about 3 billion, almost half of the non-China world population.

 

[Arwon]

Some early anecdotal suggestions they're not seeing many severe cases of illness in Omicron infections. If that holds it may be that we've gotten a variety that's become more transmissible at the expense of less virulence, which would be quite good news.