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Coronavirus 2: the Flattening

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Arwon, Apr 5, 2020.

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  1. Takhisis

    Takhisis Free Hong Kong

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    Is it true that Ramzan Kadyrov is infected? His death could throw the entire Chechnyan situation back into a slaughter-fest.
     
  2. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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    Yes, he is in Moscow hospital. Don't think this is a problem though, he is young and even if he dies they'll probably find somebody to replace him.
     
  3. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Deity

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    Chechnya looks a lot nicer now than in 1994 when I first heard of it
     
  4. Estebonrober

    Estebonrober Deity

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    Ok so her credibility is now ruined. I'd be remiss if I did not point out that "The easiest way to get media attention right now is to claim a Republican elected official is involved in a conspiracy to cover up COVID-19 data detrimental to reopening the state economy." Is a fact of GOP making. If they'd not played politics on this from get go then there would not be such an atmosphere of distrust. They have pitted themselves against anyone who is not conservative in an us vs them world with no grey left on the field. They have no sympathy for anyone beyond their own immediate interests and I no longer have any sympathy for their reputations.
     
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  5. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    A factor important is I think that hospitalised Covid patients in NL have on average around 20 days stay versus an average of 5 days stay of the regular health care.
    That's in effect a factor 4.
    You can help 4 regular patients versus only 1 Covid patient.
    And this bites when your hospital capacity is too small in beds and skilled employees.

    Comparing that factor with other countries gets a bit lost in what I guess definition issues or outdated statistics (there has been a clear trend for shorter stays from less damaging surgery methods... and ofc the cost down rationalisations)
    For NL I am sure because of national sources.

    Here some international overviews.
    Schermopname (803).png Schermopname (805).png
     
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  6. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    Article below in the Lancet based on more than 96,000 Covid patients from 671 hospitals shows that one in eleven died in the control group (81,000 patients) and one in six died in the hydroxychloroquine group.
    In the patient group where the antimalarial drugs were given in combination with an antibiotic, mortality was even higher: ranging from one in five to even one in four.

    That looks like more negatives (heart issues) than positives for hydroxychloroquine.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext

    It could however be that a big scale fully randomised trial gives better results.
     
    Last edited: May 22, 2020
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  7. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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    Khabib Nurmagomedov's father, MMA trainer is in critical condition in one of Moscow hospitals.
    Unofficial reports say Kadyrov's condition is also serious.

    150 deaths today, another record high number. Number of cases stays below the peak level of May 11-th.
     
  8. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

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    The death rate of the control group vs. the hydroxy group isn't germaine, since the assignment isn't random. That article uses regression analysis, though. (keep in mind, 'disease severity' is going to be something that can only be loosely guessed at right now, which is a major arm of their regression efforts).

    It's better to report the hazard ratio: all-else-being-equal*, getting hydroxycholorquine made a patient 33% more likely to die.

    *huge caveat, since the 'all-else-being-equal' effort is going to be extremely prone to missing all of those human factors that made one patient put into the chloroquine group while another one wasn't.
     
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  9. AdamCrock

    AdamCrock Polish Pudding

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    Censorship in "People's Republic of Poland" seems to be back on track !! o.O
    The Leader of Polish leading political party PiS ("Prawo i Sprawiedliwość" eng. "Law and Justice") was caught visiting the cemetery when it was forbidden for ordinary folks due to government restrictions. One "alternative" scene artist "Kazik" wrote a song about it titled "Twój ból jest lepszy niż mój" meaning "Your pain is better than mine" and then he got simply "erased" (from existence xD) in the Polish Radio : "Program 3 Polskiego Radia" , "Trójka" or "Three" for short ;) ) After "erasing" of the aforementioned artist's song in the radio, the boom to listen to it grew exponentially . I mean it's around ~1 mln views per day on Youtube ! haha :lol: It seems there are equal people in Poland , only some are more equal than others - The artist "Kazik" did got his point across - even stronger with this censorship attack ! Ever since than more and more polish artists declared boycott of that radio station and most of the station staff resigned.
    Conclusion : If You want Your controversial song promoted, be sure that it is so controversial that it get's censored by the government ! It's been a really long time since I saw a promotion this big ! I mean - a national scandal. This is goooood (for the artis of course. The radio station and that lousy scumbag of a politician are pretty much finished . :)
     
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  10. Takhisis

    Takhisis Free Hong Kong

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    up yours!
    I've been rereading the Harry Potter books (I'm right at the point where the glorious trio
    Spoiler :
    enters Gringotts
    )
    and already I've been struck by the strong similarities between real-life reactions to the coronavirus the Ministry of Magic denying Voldemort's return. This is Umbridge v. The Quibbler all over again.
     
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  11. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    One of the best weapons against authoritarian leaders is to make them, to tempt them, to just be lucky... to have them become ludicrous :)
     
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  12. Takhisis

    Takhisis Free Hong Kong

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    up yours!
    And also Brazil's official reported cases have overtaken Russia's; the death toll is over 21,000 as of my latest refresh of the globo.com.br main page.
     
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  13. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    This is a troll right ?

     
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  14. AdamCrock

    AdamCrock Polish Pudding

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    It's no joke I'm affraid. My tin-foil-hatter workmate believes that Covid is invented only to "vaccinate" people with microchips willingly :/ Than control us along 5G wavelengths ..... *sigh* ....
     
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  15. The_J

    The_J Say No 2 Net Validations Retired Moderator Supporter

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    I always wonder how the logic there goes.
    If Bill Gates would have wanted to control the world, he'd have stayed head of Microsoft. If you control everyone's computers, you're having a way better chance to control everyone than by pumping your money into a foundation which sponsors a ton of beneficial things (not only vaccines, but also sanitation and more).
    Microchip technology is also not that far. If it was, the military would be using it to make soldiers killing machines, right?

    And if Bill wanted to go full maniac, he could just by a country like Palau or whatever.
     
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  16. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    Many tin-foil-hatter products are just "association" products, like memories of something that happened.
    In the case of: "It's no joke I'm affraid. My tin-foil-hatter workmate believes that Covid is invented only to "vaccinate" people with microchips willingly :/ Than control us along 5G wavelengths ..... *sigh* ...."
    China<-> control, China<-> 5G-Huawei, 5G<-> micro, micro<-> virus, Covid&everywhere<->wavelenghts&everywhere, etc

    At the level of memory events there is no need for logic, just repeated associations to strenghten the connections in a cluster of concepts.

    It does cost no mental energy, no mental discipline, no time... it is for free.... our dream system does the maintenance... and it is your own... and what is your own you will not see readily as something that takes freedom away from you.
    It's perfectly lazy, fast, and was in most critical events of our evolutionary development the perfect tool to advance our gene pool as species.
    Imo as such nothing wrong with fast innocent wrong opinions that do fit your own facts... you have to start somewhere with something that makes "sense".
    It is a human hobby: old folklore has many such "sense" explanations on for example a big lake, a mountain etc.
    Not the fact of that Lake being there ... but the "sense" that for example a long time ago a very, very big snake died there because of.... story with some moral lessons.

    Our reaction is usual: but it's not logical etc.

    Yes, we love logic constructs and causality constructs because they give a higher reliability, which is very usefull to achieve more complicated products, and enables engineering-designing without empirical experience. It goes faster and better.
    But the mental energy price is high... so high that most people only apply logic and causality constructs for specific tasks and aspects of their life... the rest goes in freewheel intuition mode + the cheap mode of "trust" the opinon of someone who put some or some more effort in some field of knowledge.
    And basically we just want enough "understanding" for a "good enough to engage, to do when needed" level, and just enough "understanding" to structure our memory of events better, like having a better coat rack.

    That drive to get some "theory" some "understanding" as a structure is I think basically our natural boil-down process to skip in our memory the noise from the essentials.

    Sharing your "understandings" with other people still a very natural process

    But here comes the issue:
    That sharing of external facts between each other is relatively easy... but sharing understandings a hell of a problem because we all have differing association clusters and patterns in our own head.
    A language with concepts arises and logic arises... and logic constructs get a life on their own. Tensions between external facts and logic constructs the basic food for productive discussions.
    The issue:
    Someone trumps you with his logic on your boildowned "understanding" of your external facts... and that is an intrusion in your mind... and if you do not willingly comply out of your own considerations... that other is taking away your freedom for your own personal constructs.

    Take back control is then a freedom fight of your own mind against the established logical and causality constructs.
    When your constructs fail because of direct realities in your own life, and you change, it is your own change. Selfdriven a rather innocent and continuous process.
    However... when you feel inclined to have a too strong opinon on something, without due effort to make it robust by self-discipline and mental effort-time, or do not rate it as immature by selfdiscipline... you have created a construct that gets a life on its own and will hinder a smooth progressive insight. The cognitive bias hurdle.
    However... when you team up with others with a flawed understanding and entrench as group, the hurdle to achieve "your own change" becomes bigger.

    Kind of crazy really that what starts as a personal freedom of your own opinion, disappears in group entrenchment hindering your personal freedom development, because apparently you still needed a belonging to support of similar people.

    Freedom can be a weird obsession when it focusses on selfexpression.
     
    Last edited: May 23, 2020
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  17. Bamspeedy

    Bamspeedy We'll dig up the road!

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    Say what you want about republicans, do you believe that many democrats believe it (19%)?

    This poll wasn't of the general population, but of Yahoo/yougov readers, and if anonymous who knows how many gave joke answers to make the other side look bad.
     
  18. amadeus

    amadeus As seen on OT

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    I already just kind of discount those polls and move on, and internet ones even moreso. You've got a self-selected sample and people don't want to look like they're not "in the know" so they'll vote for something even if they've got no clue. I've seen polls ask people about wholly fictional legislation, and people will still have opinions about it. Anytime I see a conspiracy theory poll, it seems like 15-20% always agree with it. Is a fifth of the population committed conspiracy theorists, or is there something inherent in the polling that guides people to a result?
     
  19. Tristan_C

    Tristan_C Emperor

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    Even after we discard all the decorative crap in the conspiracy theory about the mark of the beast and so forth, determining someone's motives is still guesswork. The only empiricism you get is assessing the world the person lives in, where governors are drunk on power, and the net worth of the billionaire cohort has increased by half-a-trillion even though the economy is supposedly locked-down, and people are languishing all day on social media, where they know they are the product and having their behavior patterns tracked and analyzed.

    Amid this Gates expressed interest in digital certificates for producing reliable or reportable results from at-home virus/antibody testing, and digitally tracking vaccine distribution. Naturally anything he says will be suspected of ulterior motives, and he makes a statement like that one.

    It shouldn't have been hard to see the underlying logic behind the suspicion if you had made the effort. I mean, is that not what you bemoan in the post— people not bringing their intelligence to bear on matters that challenge their preconceptions?
     
  20. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    A main point of me is that we have only a limited amount of time and energy to use our "intelligence" and only make the effort when we are compelled to do that. Our education. Our job. A social relation. Status. Selfexpression. etc.
    With some excess energy-time you can pick up more.
    Limiting intelligent, logic efforts.... Is that lazy ? Is that energy management ?

    Another main point is that anything that intrudes our freedom of mind is first of all rejected. Anyone with power is therefore suspect.

    Ulterior motives are beyond readily available proof and facts.
    Anything we cannot control ourselves gives uncertainties in our continuous extrapolation of events, our continuous predictive model (that lion there in the distance... if I and that lion move on on our current direction of travel, is that a danger or not ?)
    Fear comes in where we are beyond our predictive model. One of the nicest examples is that our modelling the future stops where we die. It is a no-go area for our imagination. We need to make an object of ourselves to look from a "distance" upon that situation. But that is beyond our intuitive system, it needs inteligence, abstraction, objectivation.
    Fear breaks down our self-made world of innocense and (biased) certainties.
    What if... that Gates... that lion has as ulterior motive to want to eat me ?

    My point is that that underlying logic is not logic (as for example matured in the Greek civilisation) but more a kind of predictability of a human based on a pattern caused by associations.
    From there I can indeed guess the underlying logic of a tin-foil-hatter.
    But that would most of the time fill my own mind with"noise" without much usefull info.


    If you deal with little children... and even nicer when listening to little children trying to convince each other in for example bargaining discussions on what to think of something that happened, what to do together, or who is to play first with the highest status toy in a kindergarten....etc
    you can see the development over time of the "quality" of the "logic" they apply.
    It will most likely start with a relative innocent and mostly differing opinion of each of them. But for situations where they are not spectator, the "compromise to be able to do" situations they will have to learn common ground of "logic".
    The older they get, the "better" their logic starts to resemble "our" logic we use most of the time. They learn to communicate and apply more generally accepted considerations. After all.... this will increase their power over parents and adults to get what they like. And as parent you (likely) do reward that assimilation.
    And the better they get in communicating in diversity, the better they get to build up and have meaningful social relations with a wider group of differing other children.
     
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