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Coronavirus 2: the Flattening

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Arwon, Apr 5, 2020.

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  1. Old Hippy

    Old Hippy Deity

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    one thing not getting mentioned very much is that 66% of new cases in New York is from people who stayed home and did not go to church
    https://www.nydailynews.com/coronav...0200506-eyqui4b5lfdn7g6cqswkf6otly-story.html
    for Gov. CUOMO'S charts see his press briefing on may 4th or may 5 from memorey
     
  2. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

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    It shows how powerfully transmissible a virus is, eh? Since people were doing their reasonable best to limit their exposure and still caught it.
     
  3. Old Hippy

    Old Hippy Deity

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    or being at home is like being on a cruise linner petri dish or that the Japan response is better than the NY respose
    abc.net.au/news/2020-05-26/japan-lifts-coronavirus-state-of-emergency-in-tokyo/12286064
     
  4. Berzerker

    Berzerker Deity

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    if you got the bug staying home, you're sharing the house with someone who aint staying home
     
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  5. Zelig

    Zelig Beep Boop

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    Lots of places didn't have stay at home orders. They seem a bit helpful. The problem is that once you've let covid get out of control, it doesn't seem like any measures are sufficient to quickly get it under control, so people grasp at any marginal measures they can.

    Linked previously: An outbreak of common colds at an Antarctic base after seventeen weeks of complete isolation
     
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  6. Berzerker

    Berzerker Deity

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    Sharing the same housing with 11 other people is not complete isolation and I assume many more have lived there. Your link says 6 of 12 caught it 'sequentially', so one of them spread it to the others, but it doesn't explain the cause.

    If I had to guess I'd say one of them came into contact with the bug at the base or brought a dormant bug with them. I dont think thats evidence you can get Covid by staying home in isolation. Some people are testing positive after being cleared, so maybe one of the crew had a cold that seemed to go away and returned under the right conditions.
     
  7. Zelig

    Zelig Beep Boop

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    If it can happen to 12 people after 17 weeks it can happen to two people in complete isolation after some number of weeks <17.
     
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  8. Berzerker

    Berzerker Deity

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  9. Zelig

    Zelig Beep Boop

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    The same way it happens to 12 people after 17 weeks. Might not be knowable, but we can't know that it's due to a lack of isolation.
     
  10. Takhisis

    Takhisis Free Hong Kong

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    up yours!
    I forgot to take issue with this particular salient point of innonimatu's misinformation campaign:
    This debt was all acquired by a bill of Congress. A duly sanctioned one, not like the current travesty of ‘emergency laws’ (2002-15 and Dec. 2019-???) that mean the executive branch of government legislates regardless of an express constitutional ban.
    And all throughout the 2015-2019 the various fragments of the now-reunited Peronist hydra held the deciding vote in both the upper and the lower house.

    It's like the Republicans in the US with you, I recently said that you're functionally a chatbot that detects tagged issues and posts the same drivel over and over and you keep proving me right.
     
  11. Takhisis

    Takhisis Free Hong Kong

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    up yours!
    Meanwhile, a quick rundown of a couple of Brazilian newspapers tells me that Brazil's passed the 24,500-death mark while Bolsonaro keeps up with his antics (he's accused of being a new Mussolini).

    Also, NYT reports stuff that is sadly unsurprising:

    As Child Hunger Soars, Federal Aid Lags
    • Child hunger is soaring while an emergency program funded by Congress to replace school meals has reached only 15 percent of eligible children.
    • States that reopened earlier — or never fully shut down — are among those showing signs of further spread.
    • House G.O.P. leaders have sued to block a proxy voting system set up for use during the pandemic, calling it unconstitutional.

    Chief among which, if you dig in, is the surprising fact that the poor are the hardest-hit.
     
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  12. Berzerker

    Berzerker Deity

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    How did someone in Antarctica catch a cold? If it might not be knowable, why would that prove 1 person can get Covid by staying home?
     
  13. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    Looking at the paper: "...symptoms and signs of a common cold after 17 weeks of complete isolation. Examination of specimens taken from the men in relation to the outbreak has not revealed a causative agent."
    Symptoms of a common cold can be caused by several problems, not necessarily a bug?
     
  14. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    Japanese bow instead of shaking hands
    Sick people wear mask because its polite, Japan is a also very clean place
    National healthcare

    US people whom have corna and are told to self quarentine instead go to parties
    People refuse to wear masks even as 100K have died
    No National healthcare
     
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  15. The_J

    The_J Say No 2 Net Validations Retired Moderator Supporter

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    I guess the most likely case is that the virus stayed intact somewhere on a surface, and after some time some human touched it.

    This doesn't negate that staying at home decreases your chance of getting infected by a lot.

    Depends on what symptoms.
    Head ache, nausea, diarrhea, vomiting, that probably yes.
    Coughing, runny nose, throat infection, swollen lymph nodes, that less.

    That said, the paper is pretty old, and we have now better techniques.
    At that time, the method which we use now to detect viruses was not even invented (PCR, 1980s), and even with that, you can only find what you're looking for.
    If they'd re-examine the samples today (if properly stored), they might find something with the standard techniques, and even if not, catch-all metagenomic sequencing might find it.
     
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  16. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Deity

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    Antarctica is very cold.

    Someone can cough or touch a cold surface and the virus or bacteria containing droplets expelled
    freeze and remains dormant almost indefinitely. Someone else a few months or a few
    years later picks up that object or touches that surface and their body heat reactivates it.
     
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  17. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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  18. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

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    The virus isn't magic, but we don't have good intuitions for how it functions. This means that there's a lot of behaviour that doesn't help, even if people are trying their reasonable best. Various societies are going to show different levels of success, and we're going to do our best to glean what worked and what didn't.
     
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  19. Narz

    Narz keeping it real

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    My county has 20 times the Corona deaths of the whole country of Thailand.
     
  20. Takhisis

    Takhisis Free Hong Kong

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    up yours!
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