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Coronavirus 2: the Flattening

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Arwon, Apr 5, 2020.

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  1. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    The point of wiping it out in a country is being able to again live without ever-present fear of the virus...
     
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  2. Arwon

    Arwon

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    Not if you've kept stuff locked down for 2x the incubation cycle, aren't seeing new cases in the population at large, and are fairly certain there's no virus to spread any more.
     
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  3. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    5000 new corna cases in one day in Texas
    Well it is Trumpland, they are just going to have to learn by urinating on that electrical fence

     
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  4. Seon

    Seon Not An Evil Liar

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  5. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    I got a small depressing laugh at some of the comments

     
  6. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Deity

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    Potentially yes.

    That was the happy week.

    They haven't found any cases of community spread yet.

    I'm not overly surprised. People trickling back in that's the weak point.
     
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  7. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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    QuarantineMob

     
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  8. Seon

    Seon Not An Evil Liar

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  9. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Quad B

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  10. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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  11. tuckerkao

    tuckerkao King

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    Trump asked to slow down the testing which means to slow down the progress to save the American lives.

    No, California is Democratic and has reported 6,000+ cases yesterday.
     
  12. amadeus

    amadeus As seen on OT

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    Has anyone gone into trying to explain the recent rapid growth in cases? I don’t mean the short answer of “reopening,” but more specifically where and how?
     
  13. Seon

    Seon Not An Evil Liar

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    Current uptick trend in infection appear to originate from a rushed reopening process which saw gyms, restaurants, and other such public places open before open cases of coronavirus pandemic was under control. Such tight, closed spaces appear to make the most ideal scenario for spreading the virus.

    As this week progress, we should begin to see the impact that the recent wave of national unrest have had on the infection rate, as protests tend to generate vectors of infection such as packed jail cells and prisoner transport buses.
     
  14. amadeus

    amadeus As seen on OT

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    Right, but what I mean is more like a comparison of public goings-out (sorry for the butchered language) before and after. Grocery stores, gas stations, drugstores, hardware stores all stayed open. Essential services stayed open. The post office stayed open. It seemed like there was not that same explosive growth, and I’d just like to know what the figures are on it that would explain it better.
     
  15. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Quad B

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    At a guess, when only essential services were staying open people were mostly inclined to stay home. When things that were basically designated as non essential opened people in general blew the whole thing off.
     
  16. Seon

    Seon Not An Evil Liar

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    Full analysis do not exist at this time as coronavirus is a novel phenomenon with still unclear mechanics of function. However, tracing data indicates that majority of new coronavirus cases result from so called “superspreader events.”

    https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/06/15/1003576/whats-a-coronavirus-superspreader/

    It appears the majority of these super spreader cases required extensive proximity or interaction in enclosed spaces. This is generally not what happens in grocery stores, gas stations, or other essential services, provided masks are worn and social distancing guidelines are followed. Limiting exhalation of breath as may happen through speech, shouting, or exertion also appears to slow the transmission.

    it’s notably difficult to wear masks while eating or not exerting yourself in gyms.
     
  17. Seon

    Seon Not An Evil Liar

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  18. Zelig

    Zelig Beep Boop

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    Trying to track growth to specific things is reading too much into it. You really only have to look at the R value. More contact between people raises the R value. R value >1 means cases grow. Which marginal thing caused R to exceed 1 isn't really all that notable. What's important is which things have the best ratio of value to people vs. raising the R value, not which things most recently increased the R value.
     
  19. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    What I'm seeing here in Europe is people letting their guard down, because it is hard to always keep it up, and inevitably the virus starts spreading. There were bottled-up desires to go back to normal, or at least to get some release, and summer is the time of partying and meeting other people. I don't thing this virus can be "managed" in away that allows people to live semi-normally. If it is in circulation all it takes is a party to spread it to hundreds of people who then more out and spread it to dozens of towns.

    So the best option would have been to extinguish the virus, accept the necessity of then keeping it out of those places where it is extinguished, piece by piece over the world, and go back to almost-normal within. A vaccine is not near enough that the accumulated damage of the ongoing outbreaks won't be worse than the little extra effort that would have been necessary to eradicate it. Even those talking about "the economy" should have seen that this would be "better for the economy".
    Many governments have made a costly, damaging mistake in betting they could "manage" the virus, deliberately not attempting to eradicate it because they intended to avoid quarantines on travelers. Without quarantines on travelers from places with the virus, it is indeed impossible to eradicate it. But this was a political choice. And now those politicians who made it will delay admitting to that mistake, allowing yet more damage to accumulate.
     
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  20. Zelig

    Zelig Beep Boop

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    Everyone entering countries aren't tourists. Canada and the US have about 30,000 transport trucks per day crossing the border.
     
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