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Coronavirus 2: the Flattening

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Arwon, Apr 5, 2020.

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  1. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    Drive cargo to border, hitch it to another truck for the next leg of the journey. Or move it in some other transport. Gets more expensive? It's either essential and someone will pay for the extra cost, or business goes to some more local competitor. Problem solved.

    Dealing with quarantines, and processes to transfer merchandise and crew the transports, is something that has been done for centuries. Not rocket science. (that's would be just mere decades old :lol:).
    My point is, it's a problem that can be solved. If it isn't, and where it is pointed out as a roadblock, it's being used as an excuse for unwillingness to quarantine at the border for other reasons.
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2020
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  2. Narz

    Narz keeping it real

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    At the gym people are generally 8-10 feet from each other. I would love access to an open-air rooftop gym ideally.
     
  3. Arwon

    Arwon

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    20200625_101806.jpg

    IMG_20200625_120631_631.jpg
     
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  4. Zelig

    Zelig Beep Boop

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    Probably not worth the QALYs it would save.
     
  5. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    Why are people panic buying TP again in Victoria ?
    In hind sight allowing the protest was a bad idea, They should have postponed that for a few weeks at the very least. Now they run the risk of a possible second wave and a backlash from the public.
     
  6. Seon

    Seon Not An Evil Liar

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    According to surveys, most people in America still blame the spreading of coronavirus in this particular order.

    1. Chinese people.
    2. Trump.

    While it is true that rhetoric of blaming protests get thrown around a lot these days, at first with liberal circles against the anti-lockdown protests and then from the far-right with regards to the current crop of racial justice protests, I have not seen any strong evidence to suggest that either rhetoric have begun to win out over existing xenophobia and anti-Trump sentiments.

    I suppose if there is to be unity between Democrats and Republican mainstream these days, it is that China is to blame for the Coronavirus, so I suppose this outcome was not exactly surprising.
     
  7. Arwon

    Arwon

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    They're worried there might be local lockdowns, and Woolies has signalled that they should be worried by instituting localised buying restrictions again.

    The protests were well managed in terms of masks, sanitiser and distancing, which isn't surprising given the organisers were indigenous orgs, who are acutely aware of the community's particular vulnerability and had things running pretty well.

    The spread of cases isn't plausibly linked to the protests. That's because of the timing, since the new cases picked up about 2 weeks afterwards, rather than peaking 6 to 8 days afterwards, around the weekend of the 12th, as you'd expect if there'd been any real protest transmission.

    Plus the Vic govt, which is led by cop-loving Dan Andrews and which was very much against the protests, has repeatedly said they weren't the cause of the transmission.

    And there was already evidence of relaxation and complacency before the protests, so the protests didn't change people's broader behaviour, which is the other theory I've seen out there. It was steadily growing relaxation both before and afterwards. Demonstrating that, here's the Apple mobility data showing activity increasing steadily from early May.



    And Google also showing the slow upward increase in activity before and after.



    We also know where the clusters in Vic are, and they're basically some combination of family gatherings and people in marginal and insecure and low-rights casual employment. They've been workers in areas such as security at the quarantine hotels, meat plants, supermarket logistics and fast food delivery.

    We should be looking a lot more closely at the cracks and gaps left in the welfare response forcing people to work, and the lack of workplace power preventing marginalised workers from ensuring a safe environment, as the main reasons for the new spread.
     
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2020
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  8. Seon

    Seon Not An Evil Liar

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    Yep, that data seems to suggest no real correlation between infection rate and protests—trend towards further infection appear to originate previous to the protests.
     
  9. Arwon

    Arwon

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    Nah that is people's movement patterns, here's Victoria's active cases:

    https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-active-cases/vic

    and community transmission cases

    https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-community-transmission/vic

    As you can see from community transmission, there's no spike around the 6-8 day mark after the June 5 protests, which you'd expect to see if there were transmission at the protests. It's roughly two weeks afterwards when things pick up, and 14 days is the tail end of incubation time.
     
  10. Seon

    Seon Not An Evil Liar

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    Oh I see.

    So either somehow most cases had a 14 day incubation period, which would be ridiculous, or there were some other source of the spread?
     
  11. Arwon

    Arwon

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    Yep, Melbourne was never at zero cases so it was pretty easy for a few new clusters to take root. Apparently there were issues with some people working and visiting ppl while known to be positive.

    At least one cluster came from security at the quarantine hotels...
     
  12. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    Does that discharge other people, whether politicians, civil servants or citizens, from doing what is inside their power of influence ?



    Much comes still down to individual common sense:
    * isolate when feeling sick
    * keep physical distance
    * minimise close interactions (no fun shopping, up to not your usual hugging the owner of your favorite lunch restaurant, etc)
    * use hand sanitisers
    * masks
    * avoid (mass) events where superspreaders can be infected and can infect
    * see and handle indoor physical contacts as a bigger risk than outdoor.
    The freedom in responsibility level... after a crash course... after enough time for people to be informed and to learn what a real epidemy is.

    At employer level:
    * is individual protection from the list above encouraged, implemented or discouraged, not implemented.
    * is home office encouraged or discouraged
    * is isolating at home because of sickness symptoms encouraged or discouraged.
    and yes... employers that need their employee skills have more incentives to encourage protections.

    No authority yet involved with above.
    So what do authorities really need to deliver on top ?
    And what can be decided at local-regional level on which Trump cannot have much influence ?

    In Europe many countries are now past the peak at low rates of infected people and Covid deaths.
    Covid death rates below 2% of the normal mortality of ageing and other causes.
    What is offered by these governments to their people on top of the self-responsibility of citizens ?

    Mainly (and not in all countries at the same level):
    * financial support for the after shocks in resource utilisation, buying time for employers and people to adapt.
    * temporary regulations on employers to improve protections of employees, all employees, not only the key employees.
    * travelling restrictions (international and also regional when needed)
    * tests to help self-isolating and to push contact tracing.
    * good public information on the statistics of Covid per region enabling people to respond better to their situation
    * a promised stick behind the door to impose lockdown again at local or regional level when outbreaks happen.

    Lots of that Europe country level authority is AFAIK fully available for US States.
    Only the federal money for financial support the difference ?

    Blaming someone else, far away, and out of your direct control.... is just like the grass at the other side of the river being always greener.
    And harsher...is like walking away from your own local-regional-national responsibilities.

    Here a graph with Covid deaths per day, per million people.
    Most OECD countries have a normal mortality of 25-30 deaths per day, per million people.
    You can see that many countries are already below 0.25. Meaning Covid deaths are lower than 1% normal mortality.
    You could wonder why Europe does not simply push on like Australia, New Zealand etc with contact tracing... but this is I think socially unacceptable because this would only be possibble if the summer holiday is skipped incl all kind of summer events. People want "their" holiday, terraces, events.
    On top there are quite some countries that have high tourism economy sector from foreign tourists.
    We will know by October, perhaps earlier, by the hard evidence of death rates whether this has caused a second wave or not and whether the contact tracing capacity will be overwhelmed.

    Schermopname (979).png
     
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2020
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  13. The_J

    The_J Say No 2 Net Validations Retired Moderator Supporter

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    The problem in the gym is that you touch everything. Benches, weights, machines, bars. My gym (been once recently, got independently a cold afterwards) doesn't give out hand sanitizer at the entrance, instead they have more spray bottles + paper rolls in the gym. I thought about cleaning the bar, and did, but the rest... no, too complicated.
    I did work out with a mask though, and normally do my running with mask. Not pleasant, but I just think that it's adding to the final gained stamina at the end.
     
  14. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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  15. Samson

    Samson Deity

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  16. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    That looks terrible.

    It's not enough to have a sea. You also need hotels, beach regulation and services.
     
  17. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Deity

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    I'd recomend wearing gloves.
     
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  18. Seon

    Seon Not An Evil Liar

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  19. Commodore

    Commodore Deity

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    I think I might be an asymptomatic carrier. A few people at work have come down with it and it's people I deal with pretty regularly. I am also one who has not taken any additional safety precautions beyond what is now required at work (which is just having a mask on you, but not required to wear it over your face unless you are in an elevator).

    So I'm not ruling out that I'm the one that passed it to them. But there's also no definite proof that it was me and I'm not sick so I'm not getting tested.
     
  20. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Commodore, the bringer of death :devil:
     
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