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Coronavirus 2: the Flattening

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Arwon, Apr 5, 2020.

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  1. Samson

    Samson Deity

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    NY Times has an interesting graphical display of the spread of the outbreak in the US, based on this non-peer reviewed preprint. It is softpaywalled but works in Chrome Incognito for me without signup. Some quotes:
    We traced the hidden spread of the epidemic to explain why the United States failed to stop it.At every crucial moment, American officials were weeks or months behind the reality of the outbreak. Those delays likely cost tens of thousands of lives.
    In New York City, where officials had found only a single case by March 1, roughly 10,000 infections had spread undetected.
    New Yorkers and visitors continued to travel out of the city. More than 5,000 contagious travelers left in the first two weeks of March, estimates suggest
    “I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives and get out on the town,” Mayor Bill de Blasio said on March 2.
    By the time President Trump blocked travel from Europe on March 13, the restrictions were essentially pointless.The outbreak had already been spreading widely in most states for weeks.
    As late as March 10, the average person moved around pretty much as normal, according to cellphone data from Cuebiq.
    More than 22,000 deaths in the New York City area could have been avoided if the country had started social distancing just one week earlier, Columbia University researchers estimate.​
     
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  2. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    That's were most governments were sleeping. They should have started earlier with testing to "prove" to the population that Covid was not in some far away country but at their own doorsteps and restrictions disrupting economy were needed. Proving needed to avoid getting accused of fear-mongering.
    Being one of the flock is not good enough for a herder.
     
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  3. Commodore

    Commodore Deity

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    Define "widely" in this context. Because the number of total infected as a percentage of the total population is still extremely low.

    Also update on my work: It was all a false alarm. No infected here. What happened was the individuals in question displayed some "covid-like symptoms" and so certain other people panicked and started claiming those people definitely have it. They were tested and the tests came back negative which is why they were allowed to return to work.
     
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  4. Samson

    Samson Deity

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    To really answer this you should look at the graphics, they are pretty processor intensive but are interesting. This is their image from March 1st:
     
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  5. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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    So far we haven't had scenes like that in Wales despite our beaches being open but when the restriction on non-essential travel over 5 miles from home is dropped I fear similar scenes here. Wheres Offa when you need him?
     
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  6. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    TIL about Offa

    yeah :)

    About high time that he is there
    if not to conquer England again then at least to build Offa"s Dyke again between Wales and England.
     
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  7. amadeus

    amadeus As seen on OT

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  8. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Deity

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  9. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    His family states that he is 114
    No birth record
    If you look at the picture he looks remarkable good for a centenarian.

    In Western culture quantifying and numbers is like a fetish, giving a sense of control.
    Do mind that in many cultures-languages the difference between the words Old and Wise is not that big.

    That means that people will say to someone they consider very Wise that he is very Old.
     
  10. amadeus

    amadeus As seen on OT

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    Random thought off the top of my head, but are East Africans better equipped physically to handle the coronavirus? I saw some thing years ago about how Kenyans always performed so well in marathons, and they credited at least a part of it to growing up in mountainous country and, if I remember correctly, climate. According to that article, Kenyan runners could regulate their breathing better than their competitors or something like that.

    I have no idea if there's any scientific basis behind that, but it's just a thought. An Ethiopian over 100 years old without a birth certificate wouldn't surprise me though; how good of record keeping did they do back in the time of Menelik II? I imagine they probably just had some guy come around once every five years and say "oh there's a village here, looks like about 500 people."
     
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  11. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    As usual everything is possible when there are no sound records.

    There are currently AFAIK 5 blue zones. Areas with a remarkable high rate of centenarians. Kenya is not one of them.
    I visited one of them, the Greek island Ikaria, during a holiday. Ikaria from the Greek mythological story of Ikarus and his father Daedelus.
    Perhaps more because of its recent history as Red Rock exile for communists after the Civil war end WW2 than a desire to see all those centenerians.
    But any island there is great living if you desire a stress free simple life with healthy climate and food. (I even switched off my emails for that week :)) and Ikaria is not overwhelmed by tourists.

     
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  12. amadeus

    amadeus As seen on OT

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    An Ethiopian that lived to 110 would already be an outlier, so having them recover from the coronavirus wouldn't surprise me that much. Even if that's something that could happen just one in a trillion cases, we're only looking at one guy:coronavirus so I don't read much into single anecdotes.
     
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  13. Zelig

    Zelig Beep Boop

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    Sick people were allowed to return to work?
     
  14. Commodore

    Commodore Deity

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    Yes. I'm starting to think there's some kind of power struggle going on over this whole thing. It seems like one day they are in full panic mode and the next they act like everything is fine.
     
  15. tuckerkao

    tuckerkao King

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    3. American General Public doesn't follow the Health Department guidelines.

    We are really not in the "Coronavirus 2: the Flattening" stage anymore, time for the "Coronavirus 3: the Resurgence" thread.
     
  16. Birdjaguar

    Birdjaguar Hanafubuki Retired Moderator Supporter

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  17. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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  18. Grisu

    Grisu Draghetto Retired Moderator

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    Cases are slowly rising again here, a week or two we were down to single digits per day, the last 2 days we were at something over 50. Still not alarming, but taking into account how everybody seems to act as there was no virus I fear this is only the beginning of another rise.
    Well, maybe if we didn't test we'd have no cases ;)
     
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  19. thetrooper

    thetrooper Schweinhund

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    Already at 174000 new cases so far today. I think we'll see a new all time high.
     
  20. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Deity

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    The altitude has something to do with it. Elite athletes often train in similar areas.

    Healthy islands often have diets rich in fish, low in things like beef.
     
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