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Coronavirus 2: the Flattening

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Arwon, Apr 5, 2020.

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  1. Commodore

    Commodore Deity

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    See, every problem has a simple solution.
     
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  2. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

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    It stuns me how Trump eventually bungled that talking point, given to him by staff (similar to how the White House initially treated the whistleblower with respect, but Trump inevitably couldn't maintain that)

    "If people are solely looking at case numbers, countries that do good testing will look worse" IS a coherent message. Some late night TV misrepresented it, and that's on them. But it's coherent.

    And after a few days, Trump says "so I ordered them to reduce testing". His staff understand the PR, but he eventually doesn't (after understanding it at first).

    Seriously, it's seriously concerning how dumb he is on some things
     
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  3. Seon

    Seon Not An Evil Liar

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    Considering that the federal government is, indeed, reducing support for testing I think the President and the Republican government did indeed mean they sought to reduce testing.

    I don’t think Trump was misunderstanding things when he said “so I told them to reduce testing.” I think, at the crux of it, they are trying to reduce testing and that “our numbers look bigger because we test more” is the excuse given.
     
  4. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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    Hmm, USA is hitting all time high numbers of new cases last two days.
    Spain and Italy are ok, no signs of second wave. Germany very little spike.
    Russia.. looks like two waves are merged, number of new cases stays pretty high and slowly decreases. Active cases reached peak in mid-May and stays almost the same since then.
     
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  5. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

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    I think he is misunderstanding the talking point. In the beginning, it was coherent. Later on, he misunderstands it while discussing reducing testing.

    The initial talking point is coherent when trying to explain (or spin) bad numbers. And then, reducing federal testing requires a different set of PR talking points (that hadn't been rolled out yet) other than "testing makes us look bad to the uninformed"

    My thesis is that he's dumb. It's more parsimonious than his PR staff 'accidentally' making a coherent argument about testing statistics when they were just going to scramble it in order to justify reducing testing.
     
  6. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    Next move of Trump: advicing the doctors what the cause of death must be for people dying from Covid
     
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  7. r16

    r16 not deity

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    trump is not dumb or stupid or whatever . His stated success goal was 100 000 dead Americans , though no one can actually tell what that would have won for him , considering that number is already history . Going onto 180 these days ... See , you gotta check Bolsonaro . Ordered by the courts to wear a mask , his testing results are lost ? Also supposedly says he might have had it and recovered already . Being vaccinated would mean you would have some illness , right ?
     
  8. Arwon

    Arwon

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    Only coastal democrat elitists expect object permanence in their president
     
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  9. Seon

    Seon Not An Evil Liar

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  10. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Not sure if simply "dumb" instead of unable to understand he is missing the point. As you said, he initially appears to identify what was said, then says something which no sane person would think would be a good idea to say and leave it at that.
    If a person had good eyesight, then loses it due to age, they may still recall there is a gorge somewhat near their house. But now they very well may misplace its precise location, and take needlessly shortened paths. Moreover, they could think everyone else is the same as well in regards to this, and at some point they will just stop actually identifying the gorge as something less distinct than it once had been for them. Still, they may think they accomplish careful and needed calculation to avoid the gorge, when in reality they are just old people walking anxiously in the middle of a garden.
     
  11. Takhisis

    Takhisis Jinping, wer fragt uns?

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    up yours!
    Argentina's back to Phase 1! Or, at least, the part where I live, the Alpha-minus world city which hosts a third of the total population and half the total economic activity and on which, for better or for worse, the entire country depends.

    This is what happens when all you do is lock people up and not carry out tests for two months.
     
  12. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    Yes we can reach 2 Mil deaths !
    45K new cases per day, that what around 1k people that are going to die as a result within about two weeks time. Thats what it was like around peak when the US shutdown the economy in order to flatten the curve.

    This might have worked out for America if people followed the CDC guidelines for masks, washing, distancing and exposure. But a large portion decided to follow Trump instead, I guess there are more important things then living.

     
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2020
  13. Seon

    Seon Not An Evil Liar

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    I mean they somehow managed to make not dying a politically controversial topic.

    which, I guess, good job guys. That’s kinda impressive on its own.
     
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  14. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Deity

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    Your cynicism matches my own.
     
  15. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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    Interesting that despite the pandemic continue to spread quickly (worldwide daily new cases doubled last month), the number of daily deaths is not growing.
    Either Brazil and India seriously underreport their deaths - which is possible, but in this case I imagine they would underreport the number of cases too.
    Other possible explanation is that the virus is losing its "killing power". The least aggressive strains spread more successfully.
     
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  16. amadeus

    amadeus Serenity now!

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    Random thought: have conservative Muslim countries where women having more face coverings seen a statistically significant difference in infection spread?
     
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  17. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    In EU countries more than 90% of all reported deaths are older than 65 year.
    The percentage of the population older than 65 of the EU around 20%.

    If we would oversimplify a bit and assume that the number of total deaths would be for 90% proportional to the percentage of the population older than 65 years, you get big differences in expected Covid deaths as % of infected people.
    In Italy 23% of the population is older than 65.
    In countries like India, Indonesia, Iran, Egypt, South-Africa around 5-6% of the population is older than 65.
    That's a factor 4 difference.
    Assuming that the death rate of infected people is a factor 3.6 smaller (90%*4) is a bit too simpified, but I do think the % people older than 65 year will be one of the major explanations of differences between countries.

    Schermopname (984).png

    The genome sequence of Covid-19 strains from all over the world is measured all the time by scientists and shared.
    If countries like India, Brazil, Nigeria, Iraq etc would have Covid-19 virusses with other RNA and mutations at critical locations it will certainly have high attention because that could also affect vaccins.
    So far no news there in the public newsmedia AFAIK.
     
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  18. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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    Were there any changes last months?

    It would be strange, I didn't imply that.
     
  19. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?c=region

    This is the link to an overview database updated up to one week ago in the branching tree of genomes you see in the link.
    That covers the availability of recent data for scientists to research for example the virusses in certain countries.

    IDK what you mean by that.
    I reacted on your remark that deaths were growing less fast than confirmed cases. You give Brazil and India as examples and mention underreporting as possibility and a more contagious less lethal virus as alternative option.

    I show that age distribution per country can also explain big differences.
     
  20. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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    I mentioned Brazil and India only as major sources of recent growth in new cases and possible underreporting of deaths.
    Spreading of less lethal virus, if it is happening, can be a worldwide trend. No reason for this to happen exclusively in Brazil and India.

    Thank's for the link.
     
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