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Coronavirus 3: The Resurgence

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by red_elk, Jun 27, 2020.

  1. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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    Continuation of the first and the second threads.

    End of June 2020, we are approaching 10 million cases and 500,000 deaths worldwide.
    Number of new cases is growing with accelerating rate again.

    Untitled.png

    The reason is most likely not a proper second wave, but the fact that virus invades new territories and populations. It actively spreads in Brazil and India. USA also shows record high numbers, but new cases originate mostly from Texas, California and Florida, while the new cases in New York State are on decline.
     
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2020
  2. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Deity

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    Morbid thought Red Elk.

    With the average age of Russian makes being low proportionally there's less at risk people in Russia.
     
  3. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Using a bus is simply hideous now, also due to having to wear a mask in this heat. For some reason people are geniuses, so while almost everyone inside the bus does wear a mask, they think it is just fine if they press themselves against you so as to move to buy a ticket. If they actually fear contagion, wtf are they even doing?...

    I think I won't use a bus again until all this is over.
     
    Hrothbern likes this.
  4. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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    Our mortality is close to the world's average, but still several times lower than in Western Europe and USA. Problem is that it's still climbing, likely because our population is spread out and there is large pool of unaffected people. It may reach German numbers eventually.
     
  5. Takhisis

    Takhisis Free Hong Kong

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    Could relatively high alcohol consumption in Russia be effectively sterilising airways?
    Brazil: the government is officially hiding statistics. officially as in ‘it has been ordered to start publishing them again by the courts’.
    India: I don't know even whether they have the capacity to measure it, and/or how much prejudice there might still be –especially with a nationalist Hindu megalomaniac setting such a bad example– derived from people not wanting to touch certain castes which also tend to be socioeconomically disadvantaged.
     
  6. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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    Either way, I don't see a point in hiding only deaths, in the same time reporting high number of cases. Despite all the flaws in reporting, global lethality seems to be decreasing.
     
  7. Seon

    Seon Not An Evil Liar

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    https://twitter.com/UR_Ninja/status/1276960052490964992

    A shuttered hospital was briefly occupied by nurses and doctors today who wished to reopen it to treat/prepare the facility for pandemic patients. This was dispersed by Philadelphia police today, with the protesters voluntarily retreating from the hospital to avoid brutalization.
     
  8. r16

    r16 not deity

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    subscription and depending on distances walking is the best option , water and hat . Hope is virus gets mutated , because "leaderships" will do nothing about it . And yes , we will hear about this , tribunals and all .
     
  9. tuckerkao

    tuckerkao Prince

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    What if when people contract both Covid-19 and Influenza the same time, both virus are active inside the same physical body, will coronavirus mutate in a way within the spikes that absorb parts of the influenza virus, so future mutations can speed up that the scientists need to develop new vaccines on the yearly basis.
     
  10. Seon

    Seon Not An Evil Liar

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    Uh.

    Unlikely. Coronavirus are known to be resistant to mutations.
     
  11. Takhisis

    Takhisis Free Hong Kong

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    I wouldn't be so sure:

    Actual Coronavirus Infections Vastly Undercounted, C.D.C. Data Shows

    The prevalence of infections is more than 10 times higher than the counted number of cases in six regions of the United States.

    The number of coronavirus infections in many parts of the United States is more than 10 times higher than the reported rate, according to data released on Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    The analysis is part of a wide-ranging set of surveys started by the C.D.C. to estimate how widely the virus has spread. Similar studies, sponsored by universities, national governments and the World Health Organization, are continuing all over the world.

    The C.D.C. study found, for instance, that in South Florida, just under 2 percent of the population had been exposed to the virus as of April 10, but the proportion is likely to be higher now given the [url="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/florida-coronavirus-cases.html" title="">surge of infections[/url] in the state. The prevalence was highest in New York City at nearly 7 percent as of April 1.

    “This study underscores that there are probably a lot of people infected without knowing it, likely because they have mild or asymptomatic infection,” said Dr. Fiona Havers, who led the C.D.C. study. “But those people could still spread it to others.”

    She emphasized the importance of hand-washing, wearing cloth masks and social distancing to stop the spread of the virus from people without symptoms.

    The numbers indicate that even in areas hit hard by the virus, an overwhelming majority of people have not yet been infected, said Scott Hensley, a viral immunologist at the University of Pennsylvania who was not involved in the research.

    “Many of us are sitting ducks who are still susceptible to second waves,” he said.

    The difference between recorded infections and the actual prevalence in the data was highest in Missouri, where about 2.65 percent of the population was infected with the virus as of April 26, although many people might not have felt sick. This number is about 24 times the reported rate: nearly 162,000 compared with the 6,800 thought to have been infected by then.​

    If we cannot even diagnose who has the diesease, how can we know whether people die of it or not?
     
  12. Seon

    Seon Not An Evil Liar

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    We’ll know about few months later when we have mortality statistics, and compare it with the average yearly deaths for the last decade or so.
     
  13. Bamspeedy

    Bamspeedy We'll dig up the road!

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  14. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Deity

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  15. Seon

    Seon Not An Evil Liar

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    Last year was an exceptionally bad flu season, but I don’t think it was coronavirus.
     
  16. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Deity

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    Well if true last year's Corona probably hid in normal flu.

    May have mutated as well.

    Also China may not be origin point.
     
  17. Seon

    Seon Not An Evil Liar

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    I don’t think China should be blamed or whatever but I think that the virus originated elsewhere is kinda wishful thinking. The study you linked does not yet seem peer reviewed and if the virus was going around before 2019 November, we would also see it in samples taken from April or May.

    It was only found in one of the waste water samples, so my best guess is poor storage of the samples.
     
  18. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Deity

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    Yeah hence my if true qualifier.
     
  19. The_J

    The_J Say No 2 Net Validations Retired Moderator Supporter

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    This is certainly false, all living beings mutate ;).

    mmhh...
    first, we'll need to see if a super-infection with multiple viruses can actually happen. Normally a virus infection will block entry for similar viruses, but these 2 viruses are not that similar, so it could be.
    Next problem is that influenza-viruses are negative-strand RNA viruses, whereas corona-viruses are positive-stand RNA viruses. If we'd translate that into something simpler, it means that for one the basic setup is that of a photo negative, the other one is a "positive". While one needs to be translated into the next one, it still makes potential combinations pretty hard.
    The influenza virus also has a split genome, whereas the coronavirus has a single "chromosome" (not really called like that for viruses, but anyways), which makes the processing for these different.
    The last part is that only a limited amount of DNA/RNA fits into the virus shell, and we don't know how much either of these can take up. Simply replacing the spike protein would not need more space, but no clue how compatible this would be, since both viruses are not closely related.

    tl;dr: combination between influenza and the new corona virus is not that likely.
    Recombination with SARS, MERS or the normal cold viruses would be more likely, and would probably also have a severe effect though.

    EDIT: If you want a doomsday scenario: Humans don't develop lasting immunity against thd common cold (and nobody knows why). Which means that vaccinations don't work. The common cold is rather related to the current coronavirus, so there's a chance that we don't develop lasting immunity against it and that no vaccines will have a lasting effect.
     
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  20. Seon

    Seon Not An Evil Liar

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    Resistant to mutations as in resistant compared to similar viruses.
     

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