amadeus
Serenity now
Aren’t you in charge of a private security team?
Coronavirus 3: The Resurgence
- Thread starter red_elk
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r16
not deity
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are you happy now ? Or something ......incognito in web cafes?
You decided it is pointless ...?
this is going to be a rant . ı would take it to rants thread but this tablet is a mess , still to learn copy / past things ...
Spoiler :
A bit chaotic discussion on national TV here this evening on whether it is still wise to go on holiday to a foreign country.
Also mentioned was that the sewage measure point for virusses at Schiphol Amsterdam Airport has at the moment the highest values of all sewage measure points here in NL.
On sewage measuring
We measure at many points the amount of virusses in sewage water. Current average is 3 virusses per milliliter with around in total 3,000 contagious people in NL, or 180 per million people.
(that contagious amount of people is higher than confirmed tested and an estimate of the RIVM based on several indicators... and currently being roughly three times as high as confirmed tested.).
We are in the process of increasing the number of measure points from 28 to 300.
=> sewage water measuring is a very powerful method to measure whole areas.... is able to measure small flare ups.... AND is faster in detecting than people asking to be tested because they feel symptoms.
Also mentioned was that the sewage measure point for virusses at Schiphol Amsterdam Airport has at the moment the highest values of all sewage measure points here in NL.
On sewage measuring
We measure at many points the amount of virusses in sewage water. Current average is 3 virusses per milliliter with around in total 3,000 contagious people in NL, or 180 per million people.
(that contagious amount of people is higher than confirmed tested and an estimate of the RIVM based on several indicators... and currently being roughly three times as high as confirmed tested.).
We are in the process of increasing the number of measure points from 28 to 300.
=> sewage water measuring is a very powerful method to measure whole areas.... is able to measure small flare ups.... AND is faster in detecting than people asking to be tested because they feel symptoms.
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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That sewage just shows what should have been obvious from day one: there is absolutely no hope of resolving this crap so long as unrestricted travel is allowed between territories where the virus is till loose. Most countries still are not compelling people from those places to be tested on entry and placing them in quarantine.
It's extremely simple: you want to cross borders from a plague area to a non plague area? There are conditions you must meet. Don't like it, don't cross. This is a prerequisite for eradicating the virus. And that is achievable now, not in some hypothetical, nebulous future where a vaccine exists.
FriendlyFire
Codex WMDicanious
Most countries went for a flatten the curve strategy, instead of the eradication strategy.
It is not extremely simple, for dense mass of land border countries like the EU to employ a Taiwan strategy, mandatory testing, 14 day quarantine and registration of movement for contract tracing.
EU is notoriously slow to come to a consensus for anything. By the time it dose decide on a unified strategy we will have the vaccine
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Except your HIV example doesn't really disprove my point. Those laws aren't about making you responsible for protecting others, they are about stopping you from causing intentional harm to others. There is a difference.
And there is not a single jurisdiction in the US that legally recognizes what is called a "duty to help", which is what all of this would fall under. That means I don't have a legal obligation to take protective measures against this virus, especially since I haven't been diagnosed with it so you can't make a case that I'm knowingly infecting people.
Socrates99
Bottoms up!
It's just not going to happen in this crappy political climate. There was a incident locally where a guy stabbed another guy who told him to put a mask on. There's some crazy stubborn people out there. They'll lie and belligerently ignore protocol.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/tasneemnashrulla/michigan-mask-argument-stabbing-shooting
I suppose you might be able to lock down actual international borders to certain countries for nonessential travel but there'd still be shipping.
Zardnaar
Deity
Essential stuff still goes around. That includes freight.
No non essential travel basically. Holidays don't count as essential.
And serious again:
Iran, population 80 million people, was expected to under-report Covid... but....
If this is correct.... I do wonder BTW in how far such info is known by intelligence agencies.
For sure Israel is well informed on Iran. And I guess China as well.
And then... I do wonder in how far people like Trump, Putin, Bolsonaro, Johnson, etc are informed by intel reports on this.... and in how far that influences their own approaches.
Iran, population 80 million people, was expected to under-report Covid... but....
If this is correct.... I do wonder BTW in how far such info is known by intelligence agencies.
For sure Israel is well informed on Iran. And I guess China as well.
And then... I do wonder in how far people like Trump, Putin, Bolsonaro, Johnson, etc are informed by intel reports on this.... and in how far that influences their own approaches.
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Why exactly is this "the frankest estimate"? 14.000 iranians died. By that logic, Britain must have all of its population infected.
EnglishEdward
Deity
No doubt someone is looking at satellite images of the
number of corpse carrying vehicles arriving at cemeteries.
A few weeks back I saw a TV report with a smart yellow turbanned
Sikh or muslim who drove bodies from a Delhi hospital saying he
usually had two or 2 or 3 bodies a day but it had jumped to 25.
If we tell them how much worse it is in Iran, India other places etc,
they will likely gloatingly interpret that as proof they are brilliant;
so we will put it in a table in an Annex we know they won't read.
r16
not deity
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new Turkey gives the total numbers of infected in 10 provinces that has the highest number of new cases , let's call it x . Then the total number of new cases in the country , namely y . And , well x is greater than y by like 862 ? Everybody intentionally under-reports and stuff but 25 million infections would mean like a million deaths already or what ? lt is some unveiled threat to Tahran not to interfere in whatever the West fancies to achieve . But , but , it is Ruhani saying that ? Hmm , confusing ? How about let us avoid getting involved in this and let Americans gloriously kill anyone or whatever ? Because like who would believe lran to first spot the modified "military" version and later have it crossed by a "vaccine form" weaker type ?
ı also reject the unjustified mocking of cavalry ! They are like even in space these days , as seen in the last Star Wars abomination .
ı also reject the unjustified mocking of cavalry ! They are like even in space these days , as seen in the last Star Wars abomination .
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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The EU does not need to come to a consensus on anything covid-related. Countries have acted on their own already, have the material ability to act on heir own. Unlike large countries like the US, Brazil or Russia, in the EU it's very simple to close borders: each country has its own police forces and army that it can deploy at will to guard them. Governments just do not want to make that decision. They are able to. It's part ideology (the holy totem of the EU open borders), but mostly dumb economics (tourism is important!). The only thing the EU could be useful for in this crisis would be central bank financing of states. But even at that it's only being an impediment: national central banks unbound to the EU could do it more effectively. The english have a permanent deficit and are doing just fine on that front.
The ideology of open borders has already been thrown out of the window at the beginning of the epidemic, with countries closing borders. It can be done. The shift to opening borders for summer in the EU has been all about tourism. But it's stupid: I have the misfortune of living on a big tourism spot and can see that this business even now does not have enough tourists to justify opening. Economically we would be better off having ruled out any attempt at having international tourism this year, clearing the virus nationally, getting the rest of the economy back to normal and having the portion of the tourism business that caters to locals open. If every EU country had focused on eradication of the virus we'd probably have open borders again between several countries already free of it.
But governments in the EU refused to do that, aiming instead for "management" of the virus. As things are now the rest of "the economy" is only half-working and tourism is operating at a loss. Even economically this was the dumb choice to make.
I don't think either of those are dumb enough to believe their own intel agencies. They'll quote them when convenient; they don't believe them. Intel agencies personnel are professional liars.
I would guess that that number of 14,000 deaths needs an update as well.
Let's do a rough math:
In developed western countries we can make for example as assumption that the death rate is roughly 1% of ALL infected people (not only the confirmed infected people).
From statistics it can be seen that more than 90% of all deaths comes from people older than 65 year.
Let's for sake of simplicity of the rough math take that death rate as100% proportional to people of 65+.
The UK being such an developed country has 18.5% of people older than 65 year.
Iran being a less developed country has 6.4% of people older than 65 years.
=> The deaths per infected people is in Iran one-third of the UK and is roughly 0.33% of ALL infected people.
=> On that 25 million infected people in Iran the math comes with a total of around 80,000 Covid deaths in Iran
With Iran having a so much younger population, you can't just make ALL deaths be of people over 65 without simply making up a stat to fit a narrative. If Iran was massively more infected than the UK, you'd see a noticeable number of young people dieing.
Kouvb593kdnuewnd
Left Forever
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It seems quite clear that the death rate is concentrated in certain groups rather than hit everyone equally hard.
Sure, but 0 is very different from non zero, particularly when it cancels most of the population of one country while being comparatively negligible for another.
It's also a lot more difficult to argue a teen dieing is due to natural causes - like some Eu countries do for their old and now dead.
Iranian number of 25 millions (even if it's reported correctly) is almost 1/3 of their population, therefore it obviously includes unreported and asymptomatic cases.
With the similar proportion of infected people and 1% lethality, UK would have >200,000 deaths by now.
Either Iran has 4-5 times higher proportion of infected people than UK (IMO unlikely)
or
1% lethality is incorrect, when asymptomatic cases are taken into account.
or
25 million number is vastly overblown.
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