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Coronavirus 4

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by amadeus, Aug 10, 2020.

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  1. Zelig

    Zelig Beep Boop

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    I'm skeptical of the Russian vaccine just based on it being a viral vector vaccine based on human adenovirus. A huge chunk of people already have immunity to adenovirus. Other adenovirus vector vaccine candidates are using non-human adenoviruses that people don't have immunity to. (I probably wouldn't get one of those for SARS-CoV-2 either - I'd rather save my single-use of any particular adenovirus vector for something more serious than SARS-CoV-2.)
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2020
  2. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    If everything works out then you will be lauded as the first and reap the benefits.
    But approving a vaccine before phase 3 testing where in the rest of the world 90% failure rate means you do NOT approve a vaccine until after you complete phase 3 testing. Seems a very Ivan thing to do
     
  3. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    We'll its not a surprise that the death count got raised again
    Half of America believe Cornavirus is a hoax for some reason and this is a terrible price to pay.

     
  4. tuckerkao

    tuckerkao King

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    Some won't believe it until they get the virus themselves, a 30 years old Texan man thought it was a hoax and said he made the mistake by attending the Covid party, thus paid his own life in July.

    Death per Million Population -> Spain: 612, UK: 609, Italy: 583, USA: 518, France: 466

    Trump claimed the United States had done a better job than Italy, well, only 65 more points to catch up Italy, still 80 days left until the Election Day.
     
  5. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    Similar nonsense here in NL among the population.

    At school we learned about the "dark ages" where people were superstitious.

    The purifying light of the enlightnment taking care of that

    Such arrogance
     
  6. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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    On soldiers? Mass testing and mass production is not even begin yet. I wonder where all these news come from.

    90% failure rate includes phase 1-2.
    Phase 3 has failure rate less that 50% and that includes cancer drugs which have notoriously low approval rates, because of severe side effects. Vaccines approved much more often.
     
  7. amadeus

    amadeus The Choice of a New Generation

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  8. MrCynical

    MrCynical Deity

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    Given the Phase 1 trials appear to have begun in early June, even the most optimistic timeline puts them somewhere in the middle of Phase 2. The more I look at this the more obvious it is that they're not just trying to skip phase 3, there were some major corners cut on phase 2. Basically everything concerning safety and efficacy beyond a few weeks.

    Thing is, the Russian vaccine candidate isn't actually any further along than a dozen other vaccines (in fact it's well behind at least four others I can think of). The only distinction is the willingness to stamp "approved" on it and roll it out before it's properly tested. And the reason for that rush is political and propaganda, not medical - calling the vaccine "Sputnik" makes that pathetically clear.
     
  9. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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    The study was done in period June 17-August 10. What is "most optimistic timeline" and who defines it?
     
  10. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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    Depends on your definition of further along and behind.
    Moderna started phase 3 trials in July, with 30,000 participants. The end of trials is October 2022.
     
  11. MrCynical

    MrCynical Deity

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    I was working on the basis it had started Phase 1 by June 5th, so shave another couple of weeks off the testing time.

    Normally a phase 2 trial would last a couple of years. You can make some compromises on this, trading certainty about longer term issues for quicker results, but it is unrealistic to be able to determine a vaccine's effectiveness or even medium term safety in less than a few months. As for "who defines it?" Various political and medical bodies decide when to officially stamp something as safe, but there is no global standard for when that is. Less than a month for each of phase 1 and 2 would not have been accepted by even the most reckless of approvers prior to this.

    I'll stick with the definition of further along as being closer to producing a vaccine that is safe and effective.

    The Moderna candidate went into phase 1 testing back in March, and was in phase 2 by May. So four months vs two for the first two phases of testing, and that was still rushed enough to stick some rather large question marks on some bits of their results. But yes, by any reasonable definition they are one of the candidates that is further along than the Russian one.

    And I'm seeing a rather concerning attitude that phase 2 and 3 testing is just some kind of formality. 70% of candidates that go into phase 2 fail it - it's actually the toughest of the tests to make it through, which is why shortcuts at that stage are a major problem. And phase 3 isn't trivial either - about 40% of candidates that begin phase 3 fail it due to side effects that only become apparent with the larger population.
     
  12. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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    Yes, and normally all stages take 10-15 years before approval. So I guess normally is out of consideration with covid vaccine.

    Safety and effectiveness will be confirmed on phase 3 trials this Autumn, mass vaccination starts in early 2021.
    Moderna develops different type of vaccine, has apparently much larger and longer trials. Russian one is based on similar MERS vaccine being developed for the last 3 years.

    We don't know whether Russian vaccine is safe and effective, but it will be checked much earlier.
    Not everyone can wait 2 years when Moderna trials are complete - not to mention it can fail too.
     
  13. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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    You don't always have to spend years and millions of dollars on developing space pen, when a pencil may work just as well.
     
  14. amadeus

    amadeus The Choice of a New Generation

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    An aside, but that meme about the folksy Russians and their pencils and the lavish, blockheaded NASA with their million-dollar pens is untrue on both counts.

    The space pen was developed totally independently of the government, a product entirely of that wonderful capitalist mode of production that is so frequently and unfairly maligned.

    Nor did the pencil work as well; bits of pencil shavings in sensitive space equipment is not good. The Soviet space program was also aware of these problems and also purchased the American space pen for its cosmonauts.
     
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  15. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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    Pencils worked well, they used non-graphite polymer based pencils in space.
     
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  16. MrCynical

    MrCynical Deity

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    As noted only about 60% of candidates make it through phase 3, so no, we don't know safety and effectiveness will be confirmed this autumn. Any "phase 3" trial that has such a short time frame is not going to be a proper test of safety and effectiveness anyway. It is quite possible that it will be claimed to have passed phase 3 trials by that stage, despite that. As noted, phase 2 was at least partially skipped already.

    True.

    False.

    The Russian candidate is not being checked earlier or faster. They have simply decided that the checks can be done less thoroughly, or skipped entirely.

    One thing you learn as a scientist is that reality doesn't listen to you when you say "but I need it to work this way!" Reality does say that testing a vaccine properly takes time - more than Russia has spent, or is going to spend. Sure, you can roll it out quicker and hope for the best. Maybe they'll get away with it. Maybe not. I can't predict which, and neither can they. But we have more than enough trouble from anti-vaxxers without dumping vaccine with inadequate testing into mass distribution. And yes, any given candidate can fail - fortunately there are enough that are coming through Phase 2 that there's a pretty good chance of at least one effective vaccine.

    Straying a bit from topic, but this is actually a myth. Pencils were used by both the US and Russia in early space missions, but were noted as an issue. They shed graphite dust, which is highly electrically conductive, and having that floating round in a space craft with exposed circuitry was not a great idea. NASA did not develop a space pen. That was done independently by an American business man. NASA just bought the pens, as indeed did the Russians. Both of them replaced the pencils for safety reasons, and similar pens are still used in space today.

    EDIT: Amadeus beat me to it. :)
     
  17. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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    And as noted, this is the average rate for all drugs combined. Vaccines have higher rate of approval and this particular vaccine may have even higher chances.

    That's your opinion. You don't know what they decided and what they skipped.
    And unless you are a professional, you can't pass qualified judgement on this.

    Whether it's a myth or not is irrelevant to the point. Moderna is spending a lot of time for vaccine which may work or not.
    Russian solution may work or not as well, but it doesn't require two years of testing to verify properly.
     
  18. MrCynical

    MrCynical Deity

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    Even if we limit it to vaccines, you're still only up to about a 70% success rate at phase 3, and that's for vaccines that had years of phase 1 and 2 testing to weed out problematic candidates before they started.

    I know they have decided to announce approval of this vaccine without presenting evidence of safety. I know that they have not presented evidence they have run a proper set of trials, let alone the results of them. I know that they have not had time to test vaccine efficacy or safety on any time frame beyond one month because it is a temporal impossibility for them to have done otherwise. That is not merely my opinion.

    As a biochemist running clinical trials is not something I have done personally, but I do have at least some idea what is involved. Those people I know who are involved with clinical trials and can pass qualified judgement have actually been a lot more negative about the Russian "approval" of this candidate than I have been in this thread. But more to the point, the WHO and numerous other medical experts have judged that these trials are not remotely adequate, and that this candidate has not in any way passed safety testing. Russia's respiratory medicine expert Prof. Alexander Chuchalin has just resigned from the health ministry over the numerous ethical issues with what passed for testing of this vaccine candidate.

    Since it isn't true, I'm not entirely clear what your point is anyway. If it's that it's OK to cut corners on safety testing the early Soviet space program is probably not the best place to look for supporting stories...

    True. But at least we can look at the results and see if there are problems before we give it to millions of people, rather than just rolling it out and hoping.

    False. There have been some attempts at special pleading for the Russian candidate based on previous development of adenovirus vaccines, but nothing with coherent evidence. Quite a few other Covid candidate vaccines are taking similar approaches, and even similar adenovirus vectors. Adenovirus vectors have a lot of issues due to a large chunk of the population having immunity to them already, resulting in reactions to the vector rather than payload. The Russian candidate actually uses two different vectors, as two separate shots to try and get round this. Will that work? Possibly - it's a reasonable approach to investigate. But it's unproven, and does not have any features to magically make it faster to test for safety or efficacy compared to any other candidate.
     
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  19. ShogunGrumpyBear

    ShogunGrumpyBear Chieftain

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    I mean good for the Russians I guess that they approved this early but to be honest I can't foresee this being a success, especially coming out of a nation like Russia. I mean I hope I'm wrong, but if we Americans can't make a valid vaccine before early 2021 safety, I don't know if a nation like Russia can.
     
  20. Zelig

    Zelig Beep Boop

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    I mean, for any given vaccine that is shown to be safe and effective after years of development, it's possible to just skip all the trials and go with that vaccine from the start.
     
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