Coronavirus: awaiting for the new wave

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Kyriakos said:
I thought that all those who test positive are thrown in a dungeon and only secret service servitors with full biohazard uniform approach them from then on :)
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A few of them are 4 star hotels with catering and deliveries lol. Two week holiday (if a bit boring).
 
Kyriakos said:
I read that someone infected with the Rage Virus, from Britain, was diagnosed in Italy.
So the quarantine didn't work.
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28 Brexits Later
 
supposedly this mutated virus was mentioned by Fauci in July and is the currently prevalent one in my country .
 
So I just read that the estimate in the UK for the 12 first days of vaccination are 25.000 per day (=300.000).
Germany estimates that per day 150.000 vaccinations will be possible.
If I now take the breakdown of the Dutch population into account (bc haven't seen the same numbers for Germany), that roughly 50% of the adult population are in the priority groups, that'd make for Germany roughly 30 million, so it'd take 200 days to vaccinate the priority groups.
Uff. That's a lot longer than I initially thought.



EDIT: Unrelated:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/do-we-need-covid-19-vaccine-pets
Do we need a COVID-19 vaccine for pets?
It’s still not clear how many dogs and cats have been infected with SARS-CoV-2, although the rates may be similar to those of people. Yet pet symptoms seem to be mild, if they appear at all. [...] As a result, he says, “There’s no need for a vaccine from a public health standpoint.”

[...]
Lab studies suggest SARS-CoV-2 can infect a wide range of animals, from squirrels to sheep to sperm whales. Jonathan Epstein, vice president for science and outreach at EcoHealth, has one concern at the top of his list: great apes. Human respiratory viruses have in the past been fatal in chimpanzees and gorillas, he notes, and researchers worry the new coronavirus could decimate endangered primate species in Africa and Asia.

Karesh is also concerned about endangered animals such as black-footed ferrets, which are likely at high risk for COVID-19, given the susceptibility of lab ferrets to the disease. He’s also worried about great apes at zoos and sanctuaries—places where tigers and other animals have become infected.
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I might look up how the heck they infected a sperm whale o_O.
 
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A new and simple prognostic score has been developed using bloodcount to predict, during the first three days after presentation, which patients are likely to need IC or not

Covid patient's blood count can predict severity of the disease course
International research led by Radboudumc makes it clear that the blood picture of a covid-19 patient can be used to predict fairly accurately whether the disease will develop seriously or not. This makes it easier for healthcare providers to estimate the expected clinical picture.
Based on specific changes in the blood cells, an algorithm has been created with a predictive value. This appears to predict the course of covid-19 better than the method used up to now. An additional advantage is that the new method is cheap and immediately available.
The study, which was conducted in 11 hospitals, has now been published in the scientific journal eLife.
https://nos.nl/liveblog/2361482-blo...n-ook-spanje-portugal-weren-reizigers-vk.html
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From eLife
Abstract
COVID-19 induces haemocytometric changes. Complete blood count changes, including new cell activation parameters, from 982 confirmed COVID-19 adult patients from 11 European hospitals were retrospectively analysed for distinctive patterns based on age, gender, clinical severity, symptom duration, and hospital days. The observed haemocytometric patterns formed the basis to develop a multi-haemocytometric-parameter prognostic score to predict, during the first three days after presentation, which patients will recover without ventilation or deteriorate within a two-week timeframe, needing intensive care or with fatal outcome. The prognostic score, with ROC curve AUC at baseline of 0.753 (95% CI 0.723–0.781) increasing to 0.875 (95% CI 0.806–0.926) on day 3, was superior to any individual parameter at distinguishing between clinical severity. Findings were confirmed in a validation cohort. Aim is that the score and haemocytometry results are simultaneously provided by analyser software, enabling wide applicability of the score as haemocytometry is commonly requested in COVID-19 patients.
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https://elifesciences.org/articles/63195
 
The_J said:
So I just read that the estimate in the UK for the 12 first days of vaccination are 25.000 per day (=300.000).
Germany estimates that per day 150.000 vaccinations will be possible.
If I now take the breakdown of the Dutch population into account (bc haven't seen the same numbers for Germany), that roughly 50% of the adult population are in the priority groups, that'd make for Germany roughly 30 million, so it'd take 200 days to vaccinate the priority groups.
Uff. That's a lot longer than I initially thought.
Click to expand...

The other bottleneck could be whether we have in time enough vaccins.
But I hope things can be speeded up.
 
The_J said:
So I just read that the estimate in the UK for the 12 first days of vaccination are 25.000 per day (=300.000).
Germany estimates that per day 150.000 vaccinations will be possible.
If I now take the breakdown of the Dutch population into account (bc haven't seen the same numbers for Germany), that roughly 50% of the adult population are in the priority groups, that'd make for Germany roughly 30 million, so it'd take 200 days to vaccinate the priority groups.
Uff. That's a lot longer than I initially thought.



EDIT: Unrelated:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/do-we-need-covid-19-vaccine-pets


I might look up how the heck they infected a sperm whale o_O.
Click to expand...

Like I said, all strays and ferals must be terminated*
The whale maybe was fed infected fish.

*and also owned dogs are a very clear risk if they can pass the virus to humans or anything which may pass it to humans. Cats tend to stay in the house anyway so may be irrelevant.
 
Some info on that new virus strain now raging in the UK.
First:
The strain from Italy in March was already more contagious (higher Ro) than the Wuhan version and now we got from the normal evolutionary pressure a yet more contagious version in the UK (and possibly also another one in South Africa).

From the article below:
The UK is best equiped to follow strain mutations because 5%-10% of all cases is being sequenced to get the RNA analysis. That "70% more contagiousness" of the new UK strain is coming from models based on many measurements the past months in the UK.
In the Netherlands we sequence approx 500 samples per week, which is now at the peak of the third wave 0.6% of all cases. We found so far 1 case of the new strain.
Other countries where the new strain was found are so far: Denmark, Belgium, Italy and Australia.
So far no cases found in for example France and Germany. Both countries sequence in relation to size at a lower rate than NL, which is already much lower than the UK.

The article of the Dutch newspaper NRC with 7 FAQ questions:
1. Could it be that this variant has been in the Netherlands for a long time and is responsible for the recent increase in the number of infections ?
It is certain that the new variant is already here. He was diagnosed with one person at the beginning of December. But as far as is known, it has not yet spread widely across the Netherlands. We know this because RIVM and Rotterdam's Erasmus MC carry out random checks on samples from corona tests. “We don't do that nearly as much as in the United Kingdom,” says Marc Bonten, professor of epidemiology at UMC Utrecht. "But enough to say that the recent increase in the number of infections is probably not related to this."
How likely is it that it stayed with this one case in the Netherlands? "Not likely," says Marion Koopmans, professor of virology at Erasmus MC and member of the OMT. “But we are lucky that much stricter measures are already in place here than until recently in the United Kingdom. There you saw crowded shopping streets last week. I expect that the spread of the new variant in the Netherlands will in any case be slower than there. ”

2. How many corona samples does the Netherlands study compared to the United Kingdom ?
The United Kingdom has invested £ 20 million this year in the so-called Covid-19 Genomics UK Consortium, a partnership between the largest British universities. That consortium is strongly committed to the genetic characterization of the virus: 5 to 10 percent of all positive corona tests are "sequenced", genetically mapped. This is less in the Netherlands. "Erasmus MC has also set up a research consortium," says Koopmans. “We have been following the development of the virus since February through targeted research questions. Since November, sequencing of a random sample of the new positively tested samples has been added. ” It is not a percentage, but about 500 samples per week. With the current number of infected people, this would amount to 0.6 percent. All in all, significantly less than in the United Kingdom. "In itself such a low percentage is fine with a view to surveillance," says Bonten. “We are now considering whether we should also do more sequencing in the Netherlands, but can never do that as much as the British. We don't have the capacity for that. ”

3. How does sequencing work? How is it different from the PCR test ?
PCR stands for "polymerase chain reaction", or polymerase chain reaction. Polymerase is an enzyme that is used to multiply a pre-selected, specific piece of genetic material from a virus very often - so often that the amount becomes detectable. It is a piece that is characteristic of that virus. A PCR test thus shows the presence of the virus, but does not say which variant it is. To know that, you have to sequence the virus: map the entire genetic code. That is more expensive and takes longer than a standard PCR test, days instead of hours. In sequencing, the DNA is first cut into pieces, which are then automatically read. Advanced software then puzzles the code back together in the correct order. The genome of the coronavirus, which consists of about 30,000 base pairs (or "letters"), is easier than that of, for example, a human (which contains three billion base pairs).

4. Has the new virus variant already been found elsewhere in Europe ?
Yes, it has also appeared in Denmark, Belgium, Italy and Australia. No cases have yet been reported in Germany and France; both countries monitor relatively less than the Netherlands. However, German virologist Christian Drosten suspects that the virus has already arrived there. The same probably applies to France. The new virus variant that South Africa is currently grappling with is another. "New variants are constantly emerging," Bonten notes. “Sometimes there is a suspicion that such a variant is more contagious, based on the distribution figures. But whether that is really the case, and to what extent such a variant is also more dangerous, should become clear from further research. ”

5. How do the British know so precisely that the new virus is 70 percent more contagious ?
They don't know exactly; this is an estimate based on computer models. These models analyze the distribution pattern of the virus, in combination with data on population density and measures taken. That rolled out 70 percent. That increase would increase the reproduction number, the so-called R factor, by about 0.4. Suppose the common virus variant currently has an R factor of 1, ten people will infect ten others on average. In the new variant, ten people would infect fourteen others.

6. What does it actually mean that a virus is 70 percent more contagious ?
This means that the chance that the virus will actually infect you when you come into contact with it is 70 percent higher. Bonten: “To give a numerical example: if a thousand virus particles are first needed to infect someone, this can already happen with three hundred particles in this variant. We do not yet know exactly why. Perhaps because the virus attaches itself more easily to our cells, penetrates them more easily, or multiplies more efficiently in our cells. We still have to find out. ”
Marion Koopmans: "The main message is: the British researchers have a reasonable suspicion that this virus spreads more easily, and that is something we cannot use."

7. Do we have to keep a distance of 2.5 meters now, instead of 1.5 ?
“You can't say it like that,” says professor Bonten. “That 70 percent does not say anything one on one about the range of your drops. We now simply know that we have to try even harder to get that R factor below 1 again. ”
Quite strict measures already apply in the Netherlands; Bonten expects that - if properly observed - these will be sufficient to bring the R back below 1. Quantifying how much we now have to do differently to lower the R by 0.4 is impossible. And that doesn't make much sense, says Bonten.
Koopmans also says the same: “The measures we have now are sufficient. Provided everyone sticks to it. ”

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2020/12/2...-om-het-engelse-virus-hier-te-vinden-a4024758
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my post about it being prevalent here was based on a message in the echo chamber ı check daily ; none officially seen yet . Apparently there are 4000 mutations recorded since the pandemic began and mutations happen like one or two or at most 3 "changes" . This one supposedly has 22 , no doubt to create a thing or two in the conspiracies field .
 
The EMA has approved the vaccine from Pfizer/BioNTech, which was to be expected.
Germany expects first vaccinations on Sunday, with a first charge (~125.000) of vaccines delivered on Saturday, and on Sunday/Monday again roughly 500.000.
 
Russian biologist Alexander Kagansky, who was working on a vaccine against this Covid-19, is found dead. The man accused of stabbing him to death and throwing him off the building -a media magnate- says it was a suicide.
 
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