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Coronavirus: awaiting for the new wave

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Josu, Dec 10, 2020.

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  1. Takhisis

    Takhisis Winnie the Jinping, wer fragt uns?

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    up yours.
    And it was earlier said that Africa totally would(n't) be the hardest hit because reasons.
     
  2. The_J

    The_J Say No 2 Net Validations Retired Moderator Supporter

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    Germany has announced a further lockdown over the new year, including a ban on fireworks (first time ever, although there's always a debate if it should be allowed or not), due to still increasing numbers. This includes most non-food shops, so that's a major economic problem right before christmas.
    The Netherlands is also considering harder measures. After the numbers have been dropping over November, since the beginning of December they're increasing again, having reached nearly the level of the second wave again.
    Oh crap :/
     
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  3. red_elk

    red_elk Deity

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    Results of recent poll in Russia. On average, people seem quite indifferent and careless.

    61% people are wary of being infected.
    42% would like to take vaccine as soon as possible.
    68% of those think it's important to know the vaccine manufacturer and where it was produced.

    From those,
    • 51% would prefer Russian-made vaccine
    • 18% German made
    • 9% USA-made
     
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  4. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    yes, we get today at 19.00 a statement from our PM (not the usual PM Covid press meeting with a statement followed by Q&A).
    We have also this afternoon EDIT morning a full cabinet meeting on Covid (on top of the regular Sunday meetings of the PM with the RIVM and 2-3 relevant ministers) and at noon the political leaders of all political parties will have a meeting with the PM and cabinet.
    Likely the non-essential shops will be closed (the first time since Covid started) and some more actions.

    Situation is difficult to judge because although the strong decrease of reported confirmed cases stagnated a few weeks ago and now increases (that all at no changes of government restrictions), most of that increase is until 2 weeks ago not leading to a proportional higher amount of the total pool of infected people (estimates from the RIVM).
    But hospital bed utiliation is increasing now also and we will still get the spike of Christmas and New Years eve with all the family travelling.
    On top many Belgian people get their hair cut in NL and Germany is closing non-essential shop from Wednesday until January 10. Border Mayors are afraid of Germans shopping in NL, causing too much crowding in streets and shops.

    So yeah, we get further restrictions and in an unusual serious-official fashion of "our PM to the nation".
     
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2020
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  5. Broken_Erika

    Broken_Erika Nothing

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    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55298015
     
  6. Arwon

    Arwon

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    I mean they do seem to be doing relatively better than the other 3 Atlantic continents, noting that they have about the same population as Europe and North America combined.

    (Charts are daily deaths)

    Screenshot_20201215-024315_Chrome.jpg

    Screenshot_20201215-024517_Chrome.jpg
     
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  7. Angst

    Angst Rambling and inconsistent

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    Thanks for mentioning this, I'll further it to any number of people that tell me the medicinal industry are rushing development for personal gains indifferent of consequence.

    Now, it is usually the par for the course of the medicinal industry, but I've yet to see a decision from any Western university or company that's remniscent of poor oversight.
     
  8. The_J

    The_J Say No 2 Net Validations Retired Moderator Supporter

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    I wouldn't really trust any data coming from Africa.
    It's likely that it's an issue with testing capacity, money, awareness, and various other things. I don't think you could even trust the excess death rate.
     
  9. Zelig

    Zelig Beep Boop

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    Can’t find the study atm, but covid IFR differences between jurisdictions can be like 90% attributed to demographic differences between countries (i.e. age), and covid-19 is relatively not all that dangerous to younger people, so the death rate in Africa is going to be at least an order of magnitude less than Europe/NA for a comparable case rate.
     
  10. The_J

    The_J Say No 2 Net Validations Retired Moderator Supporter

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    That I do easily believe, but still wouldn't make me believe any numbers from Uganda or whereever down there :undecide:
     
  11. The_J

    The_J Say No 2 Net Validations Retired Moderator Supporter

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  12. Arwon

    Arwon

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    I'm not so sure about that, for obvious reasons of necessity and resourcing, they tend to have decent population health setups and surveillance, as a substitute for minimal hospital care. Crudely, they've been dealing with a lot more endemic disease with a lot less resources than many other countries.

    That means while the hospitals may be inaccessible in many cases, there's still usually people on the ground who can do messaging and report information. And managing a pandemic is really less about healthcare than about information and public policy.

    So I would be looking more at the prevalence of early isolation measures taken in many lower income countries, the relative youth of the continent, and experience with dealing with other diseases through those public health networks.
     
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2020
  13. Takhisis

    Takhisis Winnie the Jinping, wer fragt uns?

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    up yours.
    We have been getting under a hundred deaths per day for a few days now. The problem is that now actual contagion is rising fast, most probably as a consequence of the Maradona event, the similarly-organised victory parade for the second anniversary of River Plate's eternal victory over Boca Juniors from two years ago, and also that millions of imbeciles are just thinking ‘well I haven't caught it so far so why should I take care?’.
     
  14. Arwon

    Arwon

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    30% reduction in traffic during the period but only a smaller drop in road deaths in Australia. Cyclist deaths seem to have increased.

    Screenshot_20201215-095138_Adobe Acrobat.jpg
     
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  15. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    sorry to hear
    and yes we have now a strict lockdown for 5 weeks, the link in your post listing it up.
    The decision was made sunday based on this report: die nu ook op internet staat,
    You can see that mobility is at high level despite the restrictions in place. All within the rules but not within the intentions.
    Word is that closing the schools (childcare, primary and secundary) was also to force more parents to do home office working again like with the March peak.
    Two flies with one stroke.
    Reducing R with approx 10-15% for the schools and 10% for more home office.

    I am still a bit sad about it, because it should not have been necessary.
    Most people were ok-ish enough, but still too much social shopping, too much other activities with low social effect and high infection effect, and according to polling approx 8% simply ignoring everything.
     
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  16. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    The european countries are implementing, in a disjoint, incoherent and even nationally uncoordinated fashion, all the elements that would be required for a successful elimination of the virus. They are very much capable of getting rid of the virus, there is no lack of resources, skill or enough public willingness to comply with restrictions.
    But because these efforts are not part of a well-planned strategy towards the goal of ending the pandemic, all this expense of resources and suffering is only serving to keep the death rate under some chosen level. It's so... infuriating! :mad:

    Also same as @Arwon said on Africa and other places: they may lack resources but they know how top use those they have. Epidemics have long been a serious issue there. Unlike in Europe apparently...
    Africa suffers from lack of resources and kleptocracy. Europe suffers from kakistocracy. In an emergency the latter can be worse.
     
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2020
  17. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    The necessary thing to do is what NZ, China, Australia, Vietnam and the few others did, eliminating the virus and controlling at the border. This should have been done in Europe over the summer. It still needs doing. The alternative is contained death by a thousand cuts. The existing vaccines don't change that.
     
  18. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    The overwhelmed health care of the first wave did cause in the Netherlands on top of the 10,000 excess deaths (of which 6,000 reported Covid deaths) an estimated 50,000 lost healthy life years.
     
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  19. The_J

    The_J Say No 2 Net Validations Retired Moderator Supporter

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    One of the tables in there says though that most infections are happening through at-home contacts... let's hope that the further restrictions help with that :/.
     
  20. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    Infections from at-home contacts,when they do happen, are kind of unavoidable and more likely to be traced.

    There is no government policy, no means available (like empty hotels as quarantaine), to escape your home when one of your family members is infected. Separating in-home not always easy or doable at all (i did make emergency plans with my daughter living here. She made with friends also the arrangement that social visits are separated by a 5-day cooldown in between other visits)
    And most likely there are many days where it is not yet clear that one person brought the infection into home.
    In general infections from at-home, work, school, visits-family-friends, care-houses, etc are more likely to be traced as category in de stats because you know who you did meet.

    Government lockdown policy aimed at the "avoidable" contacts and seeing at-home contacts as unavoidable, like in March.
     
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