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Coronavirus: awaiting for the new wave

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Josu, Dec 10, 2020.

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  1. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    Very few countries are in a position to provide the full supply chain for production of the vaccines. And that should not be a problem. This "vaccine nationalism" is more posturing than anything else, will be short-lived. And I'm somewhat curious if there are people going along with it because they see in it as a good PR means of making vaccines "more desirable" to be public.

    It's interesting that despite the talk of the UK having declined terminally it does still have a lot of tech industry going there. Including one of the main industries (by value, and technical difficulty) of our age, pharmaceuticals. The UK shut down much of its heavy industry voluntarily, which was a mistake, but it's not finished!
     
  2. Takhisis

    Takhisis Jinping, wer fragt uns?

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    The Argentine senator who earlier stated that in a pandemic has ‘relativised’ his statements and blamed the opposition for any and all misinterpretations of his stating that people don't have rights as his being against human rights.

    A truth-‘finding’ commission has been sent to his home province after the governor effectively voiding parliamentary immunity by having two (female, to boot) enemy opposition legislators seized and beaten up, as has been already told here, and the modern equivalent of Potëmkin villages is already prepared. Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International and the rest shall remain properly rebuffed.
     
  3. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Deity

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    One would have thought that one of the lessons of this is that sizable
    countries should invest in productive capacity to produce vaccines.

    While the initial development of a particular vaccine and its testing is likely to be
    done once on a worldwide basis; sizeable countries should ensure that
    once the initial vaccine has been produced, they can scale up production.

    And neighbouring small countries could buy into a share of that production
    capacity in exchange for a guarranteed proportionate share of its output.

    One wonders whether MERCOSUR will take a lead in South America.
     
  4. uppi

    uppi Deity

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    You would need to know, what kind of vaccine you wound need in the next pandemic. Production facilities for traditional vaccines would not help much, when these vaccines are not ready yet.

    But it could turn out, that the mRNA technique (for example) should be a standard platform for future vaccines (just insert RNA of a new virus). Then it would certainly make sense to keep production capabilites in reserve. The question is, how much are people willing to pay in taxes for it.
     
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  5. emzie

    emzie wicked witch of the North

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    I'm worried enough about the new variants and Canada's timeline (general population: August) that I've bought a box on KN94 masks which seem good enough. I'm contemplating buying another because that's only 1 mask / month / person over the next 7 months, but I don't want to horde them. What do y'all think?
     
  6. r16

    r16 not deity

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    there is ample production capacity of masks once it became fashionable , real doubtful you will be causing any deaths .
     
  7. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Deity

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  8. GinandTonic

    GinandTonic Saphire w/ Schweps + Lime

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    This is back to the report in the German paper that seemed to confuse 8% of study participants were over 65, with 8% protection for over 65's. est 73% protection including zero hospitalisations, serious infections or deaths.
     
  9. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    Yes apparently they are desperately in need of the vaccine they have not yet approved and now refuse to use on the priority group they are desperately in haste to vaccinate :crazyeye:

    Stranger? Not at all, instead say par the course! This is a fine example of the kind of bullcrap this club the UK has left usually produces.
     
  10. stfoskey12

    stfoskey12 Emperor of Foskania

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  11. thetrooper

    thetrooper Schweinhund

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    Yes, that's bad. Really bad. The idea of herd immunity is getting curb stomped.
     
  12. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    The right approach is to eliminate the virus, not have to rely on vaccines.

    But seeing as the "AstraZeneca vaccine" is the topic of the news, this is necessary reading to understand why it is still scarce!

    Soritot lies. AstraZeneca is outsourcing the fabrication process among several other companies. AstraZeneca also did not made the research. Big pharma are now financial holding corporations specializing in squeezing as much profit as possible from medicines, they no longer research of produce the things they sell.

    And the reason why the Oxford vaccine was not released into the public domain for any of the real manufacturers to produce as they pleased was Bill Gates's intervention.

    The "philanthropic billionaires", Bill Gates in particular, are among the most evil of men alive. They are not giving anything away, they're buying political power to make the world better for the billionaires: by impoverishing everyone else: more barriers to technology sharing and development, more legal frameworks for exploitation and rent-seeking, and they on top collecting the rents into the "investments" of their "philanthropic foundations". Which manage to keep getting richer even as they allegedly "give".
     
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2021
  13. Takhisis

    Takhisis Jinping, wer fragt uns?

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    Do what you khan.
     
  14. Takhisis

    Takhisis Jinping, wer fragt uns?

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    In order to ensure an even distribution of the famed vaccine, the government of Buenos Aires province (nearly a third of the total population under its benevolent watching eye) has decided to put local units in charge of decentralised distribution.
    This means, of course, individual local party offices instead of the actual local governments, because there's no such thing as a separation between church party and state here.
     
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  15. Samson

    Samson Deity

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    Philadelphia gave the job to a 22 year old with no relevant experience, and it did not go well.
     
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  16. r16

    r16 not deity

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    one , at times , fights real hard to avoid the allegations and whatnot that this is an engineered thing to profit the moneyed class . (While it is still somewhat exactly that , it has to be fought like a(n) pandemic/epidemic)
     
  17. MrCynical

    MrCynical Deity

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    OK, I am going to have to wave a major warning flag on the accuracy of your source article here, Innonimatu. The claim that the Oxford - AZ agreement did not include a guarantee of low costs simply isn't true. The agreement requires the vaccine to be sold at production cost, which is one of the reasons the Oxford/AZ vaccine is going at nearer $3 a dose instead of the $20 - 30 range of Moderna and Pfizer. The rest of this article bounces between various different vaccines with vague, and unsubstantiated claims.

    Oh, and we've definitely been round the whole "elimination without vaccines" discussion before in this thread. That stopped being a credible possibility by April 2020 (at the latest).

    Urgent reality checks needed here. If we take the article you've posted as accurate (and we have good reason not to) the extent of Bill Gates's involvement is advising Oxford to team up with a major pharma manufacturer rather than simply giving the rights away. OK, let's look into an alternate timeline where Oxford ignores that advice and gives away licenses to anyone who asks for it - now what? What manufacturer is going to touch it? Remember we are back in April 2020 at this point. The Oxford vaccine is just one of hundreds of potential candidates, and has yet to go through the expensive clinical trials to prove it's effective. Who's paying the bills for those? You're being rather optimistic if you think an Oxford university research group has the budget to do that off their own bat, and it's a hard sell to anyone else given you've already agreed no one will make anything - not even the cost of running the trials - back from it.

    But let's suppose the clinical trials somehow get run. Maybe the UK government's scattergun approach to decisions has a lucky day and they happen to fluke funding a trial of the vaccine. Now what? Who is going to actually make it? The Oxford vaccine is not the only success out of clinical trials. Pfizer and Moderna have already published results. Likely others as well - don't kid yourself the Oxford vaccine would complete clinical trials anywhere near as fast without AZ backing, both financial and for production, so it's arriving much later than it did in our timeline. Pharma companies have huge financial incentives to make their own licensed vaccines where they can charge a significant profit, rather than producing what is effectively a generic. Generics are not big money - what little if any profit comes from how much a company can shave costs right to the bone.

    Your article (very inaccurately) tries to portray pharmaceutical companies as merely financial, outsourcing manufacturing to "real manufacturers". Even if we suppose such "real manufacturers" exist, independent of the major pharmaceutical companies (I can't think of a real life example of such a company off the top of my head), why would they make the Oxford vaccine? Pfizer, Moderna and others could license them to produce their vaccine instead, with actual profit margins, which the generic Oxford vaccine doesn't have.

    Moving back to our own timeline, the advantages of the Oxford/AZ agreement are that it has been approved faster, and large scale manufacturing is in progress. It is unlikely this vaccine would even be in mass production by this point without that agreement. So where's the gain from giving away the license? Cost? It's already by a large margin the cheapest of the available vaccines. Increased production? No - as explained, it's doubtful any manufacturer would touch it, except maybe for the PR value, and they can get most of that plus a tidy profit by making a licensed vaccine. I'm actually rather surprised AZ agreed to these terms given there doesn't seem much for them to gain from it. Prestige, I suppose - especially if they didn't have a credible in-house vaccine candidate. Your article implies some "creative accounting" as to what the cost of producing the vaccine actually is to sneak a profit margin into a supposedly "at cost" price tag. No evidence presented of course - but even if true, given the very low sale price of the vaccine, they're not getting fat off that.

    You could post this word for word in any anti-vaxxer conspiracy thread, and they'd be falling over themselves to say how right you are. Which should be a cue for you to back up and do some fact-checking. Do you hate Bill Gates because you have evidence you should? Or because you've simply heard a lot of people saying that you should?
     
  18. sherbz

    sherbz Emperor

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    Im actually at a loss at what Ursula is thinking she is doing. Its like watching someone dig their own grave. The published contract says "best efforts". Much like how Amazon make it their "best effort" to deliver your order within 3 working days. If it subsequently arrives after 7 days, you have absolutely zero right to then sue them for being late. And the idea that you can contractually force them to amend their distribution system so you receive your goods in 6 days not 7 is quite frankly laughable. Ursula has seemingly achieved the unachievable. She has united remainers and Brexiteers.
     
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  19. MrCynical

    MrCynical Deity

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    It appears the EU has decided to approve the Oxford vaccine for over 65s after all. I guess that's a slightly more coherent position - trying to demand doses be diverted from the UK when it appeared they wouldn't even be used for the most vulnerable groups was not a good look at all for the EU. But also looks like there are going to be vaccine export controls, so the row is far from over.

    AZ has published the contract they have with the EU, but much of it is redacted, and the rest is in legal gibberish, so I've no idea whose view it supports. I'm sure many expensive lawyers will be arguing over that for a while. Based on their performance so far, I'd probably bet on AZ over the EU at this point.
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2021
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  20. sherbz

    sherbz Emperor

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    Key phrase is "best effort". And the AZ defence if it gets to court (which i highly doubt as the EU position is so ridiculous) will be that there were teething problems in the EU supply chain and it has made its best efforts to rectify them as soon as possible. Supply chains in any company are built to order, especially in these kind of quantities. And the EU position is effectively "we want you to sabotage a separate supply chain to make up for ours being slow". Any self respecting judge shouldnt even bother to listen. I suspect this is more about trying to save face over their own shortcomings and its easy to just blame the UK as they were the first in the queue. All they will end up doing though is looking very silly and stupid. And giving the worst of all adverts to how the EU works for ordinary citizens right after Brexit. Its almost as though they are advertising the fact that a streamlined and intergovernmental approach (as advocated by Brexiteers) is the best solution after all. And im a remainer.
     
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