Coronavirus: The Great Unmasking

[Zardnaar]

The brazilians are legislating for breaking patents in medical emergencies. Good for them.



Same as for everyone else: strict individual quarantines on arrival?
And f it gets out of hand I think the chinese are quite capable of just cancelling the games.

Doesn't protect Brazil from retaliation. Eg they just won't supply Brazil with drugs in the future.

If Brazil can't actually manufacture the vaccines it's populism. They lose access to good vaccines, can't manufacture their own so have to use the crappy Sinopharm ones or hope they can get the better Cuban and Russia ones in sufficient quantity.

I imagine if we wanted to manufacture we would just pay the license fee.

 

[innonimatu]

Doesn't protect Brazil from retaliation. Eg they just won't supply Brazil with drugs in the future.

If Brazil can't actually manufacture the vaccines it's populism. They lose access to good vaccines, can't manufacture their own so have to use the crappy Sinopharm ones or hope they can get the better Cuban and Russia ones in sufficient quantity.

I imagine if we wanted to manufacture we would just pay the license fee.

Compulsory licenses in this legislation apply when the manufacturers refuse to supply or to negotiate a reasonable license. Brasil has the technical capability to produce (for this example) vaccines, they're not a de-industrialized country. But the process will of course take time to set up - more the reason not to waste any more of it. The encapsulation in lipids is the hard part, but hard is no reason not to do it. The sooner countries start doing local production, the sooner they learn and develop more technology to do new ones faster in the future. If poor Cuba with its small population can develop several vaccines, why couldn't huge Brasil? Or indeed most countries in the world? Only because they're not trying.

 

[Zardnaar]

Compulsory licenses in this legislation apply when the manufacturers refuse to supply or to negotiate a reasonable license. Brasil has the technical capability to produce (for this example) vaccines, they're not a de-industrialized country. But the process will of course take time to set up - more the reason not to waste any more of it. The encapsulation in lipids is the hard part, but hard is no reason not to do it. The sooner countries start doing local production, the sooner they learn and develop more technology to do new ones faster in the future. If poor Cuba with its small population can develop several vaccines, why couldn't huge Brasil? Or indeed most countries in the world? Only because they're not trying.

Cuba has a somewhat efficient government Brazil not so much.

As I said it's populism in Brazil. Once they screw it up (which let's face it they probably will) they'll blame the evil capitalist west and probably waste more money than just buying the vaccines or a license.

If you buy the license said companies usually co-operate and show you how to do it.

Even if Brazil did this tomorrow they're gonna be hard pressed to deliver a single vaccine before this time next year.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Cuba has a somewhat efficient government Brazil not so much.
As I said it's populism in Brazil. Once they screw it up (which let's face it they probably will) they'll blame the evil capitalist west and probably waste more money than just buying the vaccines or a license.
If you buy the license said companies usually co-operate and show you how to do it.
Even if Brazil did this tomorrow they're gonna be hard pressed to deliver a single vaccine before this time next year.

I suspect it will depend on which Vaccine they attempt to manufacturer and afterwards if Brazil will then seek to pay some licensing fee for using the vaccine
A lot of governments have been scrambling for supplies, vaccines, so public opinion may well be with the country and the company will have its arm twisted to settle the matter quietly

Personally some of the Vaccines prices seem to be rather high, but thats not surprising given the mad scramble for any and all vaccines.

 

[Berzerker]

Pfizer and Moderna stocks take a hit as Europe looks into reports of new side effects including kidney inflammation and a renal disorder

 

[Berzerker]

While studies cited by the CDC showed the effectiveness of just one shot of Pfizer was between 60% and 80%, getting both shots boosted that rate of protection to over 90%. The Moderna vaccine had a similarly high rate above 90% with both doses.

https://health.clevelandclinic.org/breakthrough-covid-cases/

I didn't know 1 shot was that good

 

[Samson]

We could get rid of COVID if we really wanted to

Covid (Factors favouring eradicability rating 1.6) is harder than smallpox (Factors favouring eradicability rating 2.7) but easier than polio (Factors favouring eradicability rating 1.5):

Spoiler Table of factors considered :

 

[Akka]

If "we really wanted to", we could fix climate change, inequality and probably all human problems.
The entire conundrum is precisely the prerequisite.

 

[amadeus]

I don’t think it’s that much of a conundrum as the other things mentioned; it really depends on the vaccines’ effectiveness combined with low risk of reinfection if someone is unvaccinated. At some point, those two variables should mathematically eliminate the possibility of this being permanent.

But I’m not a scientist if that wasn’t obvious enough! Trust the guy with the beakers, not me.

 

[Absolution]

I haven't read previous pages on this topic, but I come here just to share my desperation:

I live in a country that spearheaded vaccination.
I'm 25 and had my 2nd shot 5 months ago.
In recent months there was a feeling of a way out in Israeli society, but for real. Like we beat it, and that the solution was found.
We were around zero cases per day. The pandemic was out of the news.
Restrictions were already totally lifted for a short time. It was great.

Now there's a grand return - a "fourth wave", restricitons, and public talk about the pandemic.
It is said that the reasons are the new variant and some percentage of unvaccinated people (including children obviosuly).
But now I'm totally out of motivation to follow the restricitons.
What's the strategy? Where's the end-game?
What are we aiming for?

It seems like health authorities run from one month to another without looking for any exit strategy. Just "keep it down", without any long term thinking.
What's the point of working to reduce the spread of the virus - if in the long term it does't liberate us from social restricitons?
What's the point of wearing masks and taking a 3rd shot - if we'll have another wave or variant a short while after?
What are we working towards? Total eradication of Covid from the face of the earth? 100% global vaccination? These seem unlikely in a couple of decades.

There's no exit strategy. Nobody even defines what an exit is.
And here I am losing my mid twenties to an unclear responsive and uncalculated policy of health authorities. And what's stopping my early thirties from being the same?

 

[Akka]

I don’t think it’s that much of a conundrum as the other things mentioned; it really depends on the vaccines’ effectiveness combined with low risk of reinfection if someone is unvaccinated. At some point, those two variables should mathematically eliminate the possibility of this being permanent.

I'd say the main problem is that it's not a human-specific virus. If it can jump to other species, it becomes incredibly harder to make sure it disappears, because even if you vaccinate the entire world for 50 years, then it can just come back easily in 60 if some guy gets bitten and doesn't become Batman.

 

[Gorbles]

But now I'm totally out of motivation to follow the restrictons.
What's the strategy? Where's the end-game?
What are we aiming for?

The goal is "the lowest amount of deaths possible given the circumstances".

I don't think anyone would blame you for feeling fed up. I don't think anyone would blame you for being tired of restrictions. But that doesn't stop them being necessary to reduce the risk of further mutations and ultimately prevent deaths (and serious illnesses, which even if they don't result in death still impact health services and peoples' lives in a variety of ways).

 

[amadeus]

Fair point @Akka

Again, something to be left to the science folks. They’re better at than I am. Failed biology in high school! Cutting open a frog, ew.

 

[Absolution]

The goal is "the lowest amount of deaths possible given the circumstances".

I don't think anyone would blame you for feeling fed up. I don't think anyone would blame you for being tired of restrictions. But that doesn't stop them being necessary to reduce the risk of further mutations and ultimately prevent deaths (and serious illnesses, which even if they don't result in death still impact health services and peoples' lives in a variety of ways).

Reduce the chance for mutations... until what happens?
At what point (not in time - in reality) do we end restrictions?
If we have no end in mind, its all a waste of time for me.

 

[red_elk]

(From what I'm reading)
The reason of current wave is apparently the Delta variant. It quickly displaces all other variants wherever it spreads.
The "feature" of Delta is very high infectivity, people start "shedding" high amount of viruses even before showing symptoms.
The good side is that vaccines are still effective against it in terms of preventing serious illness.
There are mutations in spike protein which increase resistance to vaccines, but they are apparently suppressed by Delta variant too. It looks like unmodified protein is required for effective transmission, and it is also targeted by vaccines.

At what point (not in time - in reality) do we end restrictions?

We don't know what happens after the current wave. May be new dangerous variants appear, but there is a non-zero chance that the situation stabilizes with some low amount of infections and we'll be able to get rid of restrictions.

 

[Samson]

Germany fears thousands got saline, not vaccine from nurse

Authorities in north Germany have asked more than 8,000 people to get repeat Covid vaccinations because a nurse is suspected of having injected saline instead of vaccine in many cases.
Police are investigating the nurse's actions at a vaccination centre in Friesland, near the North Sea coast.

Inspector Peter Beer, quoted by Süddeutsche Zeitung, said the 40-year-old woman had been sharing "corona-critical information" on social media, criticising the government's restrictions aimed at curbing the virus's spread.

In April the nurse had admitted giving saline to six people to cover up the fact that she had dropped a vaccine vial on the floor.
But as the police investigation unfolded it became clear that many more people had been given saline instead of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.
Police are not ruling out that a political motive could have prompted the nurse's action, though her lawyers have rejected that and they also dispute the reported scale of the saline swap.​

 

[Gorbles]

Reduce the chance for mutations... until what happens?
At what point (not in time - in reality) do we end restrictions?
If we have no end in mind, its all a waste of time for me.

Nobody can predict the future with absolute certainty. Doesn't seem like a fair question to ask.

If you're just venting based on your frustrations, that's completely understandable. But beyond that, I need to know what you want to get out of the conversation.

 

[Akka]

Reduce the chance for mutations... until what happens?
At what point (not in time - in reality) do we end restrictions?
If we have no end in mind, its all a waste of time for me.

I'd say until the vast majority of people are vaccinated (and hence either immune or only subject to more benign symptoms), so we can resume normalcy while having a higher protection toward "at risk" people and not clugging uselessly the hospitals.
The better people follow restrictions and line up for vaccination, the faster it happens.

 

[Absolution]

Nobody can predict the future with absolute certainty. Doesn't seem like a fair question to ask.

If you're just venting based on your frustrations, that's completely understandable. But beyond that, I need to know what you want to get out of the conversation.

My fear is that we can find ourselves running from one variant to another, from one does of vaccine to another, for several years. Without any long term plan - because "nobody can predict the future".
At which point it will be obvious that the effort wasn't worth it, but we never will be able to tell it regarding a present situation.

So what I'm saying is that however restrictions may help to save lives - is saving lives that important?
My final goal is not to continuously save lives, but to end the need for restrictions.
If restrictions don't contribute tot he goal of ending the need for future restrictions, then they're useless in my opinion.

 

[Samson]

My fear is that we can find ourselves running from one variant to another, from one does of vaccine to another, for several years. Without any long term plan - because "nobody can predict the future".
At which point it will be obvious that the effort wasn't worth it, but we never will be able to tell it regarding a present situation.

So what I'm saying is that however restrictions may help to save lives - is saving lives that important?
My final goal is not to continuously save lives, but to end the need for restrictions.
If restrictions don't contribute tot he goal of ending the need for future restrictions, then they're useless in my opinion.

You do understand that other people care about not dying though?