Coronavirus: The Great Unmasking

[Zardnaar]

Talking to a friend's kid today he is 10 years old. He knew what Covid was and that it was a virus and it could kill you.

Then he called it boomer remover and well yeah. Ten years old.

 

[Gelion]

Talking to a friend's kid today he is 10 years old. He knew what Covid was and that it was a virus and it could kill you.

Then he called it boomer remover and well yeah. Ten years old.

How sweet of him

 

[Zardnaar]

How sweet of him

I did laugh. He also said he knew all the swear words. So did I at his age lol.

 

[Gelion]

I did laugh. He also said he knew all the swear words. So did I at his age lol.

Well, again, either he doesn't have grandparents or doesn't think that far. I did. At his age. Like I said, sweet kid.

 

[Zardnaar]

Well, again either he doesn't have grandparents or doesn't think that far. I did. At his age. Like I said, sweet kid.

His dad's in Aussie, I'm kind if an uncle. His brother and my nephew have "playfights" which usually result in me getting pummeled by a 7,9 and 11 year old.

Good kids but full on for their mother.

 

[MrCynical]

I'm pretty sure that the current strategy in the UK is to immunize (as much as possible, partially) younger people with the actual virus, using the vaccination program as a cover: vaccinate in order to have an excuse to open up, and then let it ripe among the (mostly vaccinated) population, hoping that they will get covid but not get too sich and be less likely to get reinfected later. Pursuing herd immunity still... it's a bad bet! But they they (correctly) at least dropped any intention of pursing vaccines that would be useless on younger people.

A reasonable summary, except for the last sentence. There are still indications of extending the UK vaccination program to include at least teenagers, and I suspect the pressure will be there to complete the job once there. A moot point at present - second doses have only reached down to people in their late 30s so far.

And the vaccines are not "useless" in younger people - your argument hinges on Covid being sufficiently harmless to these age groups that the miniscule risk of side effects outweighs it. A dubious argument given the issue of long Covid. I'm not impressed when people keep pushing the "experimental vaccines" line, with the implication that some issue might appear down the line, while being completely blase about a virus where we know it causes long term problems.

This was a strategy which the UK was going to have to pursue sooner or later, and while I'm not too happy with the timing - with such a large chunk of the population still unvaccinated - so far, this is more or less going to plan.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57942217

While it's still early days, it is worth noting that cases are no longer exponential, even with near universal Delta variant at this point. I'm not going to read too much into a few days decline, but it is a somewhat promising sign that we've at least had a week without further increases. There is of course the issue that there's a lag phase, and we haven't seen the full impact of "Freedom day" yet. That said, I'm not seeing that much of a change in people's behaviour round here. Mask usage is still poor, but that's been true for months.

Anything but zero covid

Have you seen anyone with any expertise in epidemiology arguing this is realistic? Because it's not - and hasn't been since, at the very latest, February 2020. Note that countries you have pointed at to try and support this approach as a possibility, such as Vietnam, are now seeing large numbers of cases. Australia, despite advantages of geography etc. is currently struggling with containment, never mind elimination. Now, postponing widespread infection in these countries is still well worthwhile - but that time should be (and have been) used to prepare. Vaccinate the population, etc. Not to relax and fantasize that Covid would never reach them.

 

[innonimatu]

I’m just wrapping up my lunch break but here are my questions:

• How ill is he?
• How infectious is he?
• How long was it between his second shot and suspected contact with the virus?

“He” being not only him but anyone who has been fully vaccinated according to the standards put out by the makers.

It's just an anecdote and not much to be done out of it. Predictably not apparently ill: he's young. But shedding virus for over one week now according to the interview. Took the two vaccines so either pfizer or moderna. People are fond of the janssen vacine here because they want to be done with the vaccination thing with one dose but this one seems to have cared to get the two.

The virus is kind of under control here, despite tourism, because the vast majority of people stuck to wearing masks. It's the ignorant tourists one sees going around maskless but there's enough pressure to induce many to mask also.

 

[Ferocitus]

Only 1 case confirmed today. It was already known.
The lockdown which started on Tuesday should be over on Tuesday 27 July.
It has been easy to stay indoors this last week: about 12C max. and rain/hail most days.

 

[red_elk]

Maybe the vaccinated are a bigger threat to the unvaccinated

"Singapore has already inoculated nearly 75% of its 5.7 million people, the world's second highest after the United Arab Emirates, a Reuters tracker shows, and half its population is fully vaccinated."

"Of Singapore's 1,096 locally transmitted infections in the last 28 days, 484, or about 44%, were in fully vaccinated people, while 30% were partially vaccinated and just over 25% were unvaccinated, Thursday's data showed."

Now either the vaccine doesn't block infection or it does (edit: some) and vaccinated people are lowering their guard. This should be big news for households with vaccinated and unvaccinated people, being vaccinated wont protect your loved ones.

Unvaccinated tend to be symptomatic and hospitalized more often, therefore less likely to infect others.

 

[El_Machinae]

Lots of people distance once they start showing true symptoms. It's all the time in-between getting infected then truly sick that causes problems.

 

[Berzerker]

For the love of google Berzerker
You could have mentioned that those vaccinated arent dying. That is a kinda important fact.
As for the issue of transmission, I suspect we will need to come up with new strategy until everyone has been vaccinated

I just posted data about the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine above yours. We dont need to put your important fact in every post, jhc. The article I was talking about showed the vaccine was not very effective against getting infected, thats the important fact. Everyone here already knows the vaccines reduce severity. But many people cant or wont get vaccinated and they will be around unmasked vaccinated people returning to some normality in their lives and that means they wont be as careful around unvaccinated loved ones.

 

[Deadly Dog]

Just got #2 shot. My particular cocktail was #1 Moderna #2 Pfizer. Where I live some excess Moderna arrived just as my age cohort became eligible in May, but now its seems only the Pfizer shot is available.

This seems like a good thread to post a link to an explanation of Bayes's theorem, as I find it is consistently applicable and extremely helpful in understanding a lot of the Covid stats being thrown at us these days. Here it is used to interpret tests given that there are false positives and false negatives, but I find it also useful in interpreting efficacy rates of masking, vaccinating, and why a rise in vaccinated people ending up hospitalized with Covid19 (aka breakout cases) can still be evidence of vaccines working. Basically, it's all about including background probability in your risk assessments, which is often easier to do than it would seem, especially so as more and more data accumulates.

 

[Kaitzilla]

160,000 people protested in France yesterday over domestic vaccine passports.

Making the unvaccinated 2nd class citizens is not very popular.

 

[Samson]

160,000 people protested in France yesterday over domestic vaccine passports.

Making the unvaccinated 2nd class citizens is not very popular.

I have a problem with these vaccine passports, not the vaccine (I got mine as soon as I could). The news are not reporting how they work elsewhere, but in the UK it is a closed source bit of software, and with the recent news about problems with such software, as well as the usual competence that the government has with IT projects, I rate the probability that this is secure to be approximately zero and so will not put it on my phone. I ordered a paper copy, but they have not sent it. Yet another sign that the system is in chaos and so even more likely the software is insecure.

 

[red_elk]

I have a problem with these vaccine passports, not the vaccine (I got mine as soon as I could). The news are not reporting how they work elsewhere, but in the UK it is a closed source bit of software, and with the recent news about problems with such software, as well as the usual competence that the government has with IT projects, I rate the probability that this is secure to be approximately zero and so will not put it on my phone. I ordered a paper copy, but they have not sent it. Yet another sign that the system is in chaos and so even more likely the software is insecure.

I've got paper one right after vaccination, but had no use for it.
We have QR codes which can be downloaded from government services website, and can show them with personal ID. Though even these restrictions were cancelled recently.
There were also some apps, but only optional.

 

[Akka]

Got the second shot yesterday. I'm lucky, I'm among the ones who barely registers it.
Pretty furious at the idiots protesting everywhere about the Vaccination Pass (basically, you can't go to restaurant/night club/whatever if you aren't vaccinated, which looks like plain basic common sense but a whole bunch of 'tards seem to think it's some sort of dictatorship to disallow people to be murderous a-holes). I'm facepalming my head against a wall.

 

[Birdjaguar]

I support vaccine passports for travel on planes and trains and busses.

 

[amadeus]

@Samson they’re going to issue them here too—not compulsory for anything yet as far as I know, but it’s never once occurred to me that they could be anything but a physical paper or card.

Does anyone in charge ever stop to ask why something must be on the internet?

 

[Gelion]

Does anyone in charge ever stop to ask why something must be on the internet?

In all seriousness, it is a lot easier to get all the information about anything at a click of a button rather than go out looking for it on a piece of paper or, image that, by talking to people. It is much easier to make an algorithm do it for you. And because no real world data can completely be encased in any system, no matter how complex, internet of things will eventually lead to problems of over-reliance and stagnation.

 

[amadeus]

Lead to?

Congratulations on your vaccine, Mister...
My name is DROP TABLE.
Okay, I'll just put your name here in the database...