Could Napoleon have won at Waterloo?

napoleon526

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This is subject very near and dear to my heart. The Duke of Wellington called Waterloo "The nearest run thing you ever saw." Here are some things to consider:

-- The night before the battle, heavy rain had soaked the ground, making it muddy. This delayed the primary French attack until 11:00 AM. If Napoleon had ignored the mud, or if it had not rained, could an earlier attack by French forces have succeeded in defeating the British/Dutch/German army before the arrival of Blucher's Prussians?

-- Marshal Ney squandered the French cavalry by making futile charges again and again against the British squares. What if Ney had shown uncharacteristic restraint and held his cavalry back? Or, what if he had supported the cavalry with horse artillery? Could he have blown the infantry squares apart and routed the Allied army?

-- Napoleon opened the battle with an attack on Hougomont, a chateau forward of the Allied right flank. His intent was to draw British reserves away from their left-center, where he intended to make his primary attack. Wellington was not fooled by the feint, though. However, the force assigned to capture the chateau, the 6th Infantry Division under the command of Napoleon's brother Jerome, continued to attack the strondhold throughout the rest of the battle. Everntually, most of Reille's II Corps became involved in the fruitless attempt to take the stronghold. Could these troops (nearly 15,000) made a difference elsewhere on the battlefield?

-- While the main French army was engaging the allied army, 2 Corps under Marshal Grouchy were pursuing the defeated Prussian army. Grouchy decided to follow his orders to the letter, and ignore Napoleon's standing order to "march to the sound of the guns." If he had arrived at the field of Waterloo, could his 30,000 men have held off the Prussians and allowed more strength to be brought to bear against Wellington?

Well, what do you think? If any or all of these events had gone differently, could Napoleon have marched victoriously into Brussels that evening?
 
Yes, in any of those circumstances France would probably have won, Wellingotn wasnt joking when he called it 'A near run thing'.

One thing tho..

-- Marshal Ney squandered the French cavalry by making futile charges again and again against the British squares. What if Ney had shown uncharacteristic restraint and held his cavalry back? Or, what if he had supported the cavalry with horse artillery? Could he have blown the infantry squares apart and routed the Allied army?

It would have been more a case of supporting the cavalry with infantry that would have meant destruction for the squares. Then again the British may not have formed squares as they did if there had been support for the cavalry. Either way it has to be said that Ney was a bit of a jackass. I can only imagine what Napoleon would have said to him had the French won the battle despite losing the cavalry. :D

Kentonio
 
I think all he really needed was better weather, as you said, the mud really screwed him. But he also faced the fact that Arthur knew him inside and out, having studied his opponent extensivly.

Grouchy may have delayed the Prussians, but they would have eventuially won to engage a wounded, tired, yet victorious French Army. The Prussians would be a bit wearied too tho, so who knows.

The 15,000 men wouldn't have much helped. Wellsley knew napoleon's tricks, and Nappy would have just sent them on another one of those tricks of his.
 
Napoleon was smart enough to defeat wellington, but yes, the weather also counts.
who knows, maybe it would have changed Europe's history
 
Yes; Napoleon could have won the battle field.

However I doubt that he could have destroyed
Wellington's army; unless Wellington screwed up.

Amongst other things Wellington was a master
at disengaging when outmatched; and I am
confident that, if he assessed Napoleon as on
top, he would have broken away early and
been able to save at least half his army.

I understand that Wellington had selected
the battlefied because (a) it enabled him to
hide his men behind a ridge out of direct artillery
fire and (b) there were woods behind so that
if defeated; Wellington could easily withdraw
through the woods within which the persuing
French cavalry would be disadvantaged.

Before fighting Wellington; Napoleon attacked,
tactically defeating the Prussians; but they had
succeeded in getting most of their army away.

With armies converging from Austria and
Russia too; tactical battlefield victories that
did not destroy his opponent's armies were
strategically inadequate to save Napoleon.

Napoleon had to win outright at Waterloo.

Wellington merely had to survive an attack.

This forced Napoleon to go for broke and
resulted in the annhilation of the French.
 
i am not expert on napoleon but i happen to know that there was a point in hte battle where someone told napoleon to send in the old guard, historians say that if had done taht wellingtons lines would had been broken.......destroying his army and waiting to take the otehr ones.

does anyone knows what i am talking about?
 
Originally posted by stalin006
i am not expert on napoleon but i happen to know that there was a point in hte battle where someone told napoleon to send in the old guard, historians say that if had done taht wellingtons lines would had been broken.......destroying his army and waiting to take the otehr ones.

does anyone knows what i am talking about?
The Imperial Guard was deployed at the end of the battle. Seven battalions of the Middle Guard attacked the British center, and on the way other forces advanced with them until the attack became a general advance. The Middle Guard's assault was stopped by concentrated platoon fire from the British line, which then counter-attacked. The French army disintegrated at the sight of the Guard's retreat.
 
Originally posted by EdwardTking


Amongst other things Wellington was a master
at disengaging when outmatched; and I am
confident that, if he assessed Napoleon as on
top, he would have broken away early and
been able to save at least half his army.

.

Wellington was master of diengament in the Battle of Fuentes de Onoro an entire divison was cut of he sent the light divison and rescuded a whole divison and skillflully withdrew.

I argee with Edward the KIng if some of the things you mentioned Naploean 526 had gone the real Napoleon's way he would have won but would just be forestalling the inevitbale
 
well the real question is...should napoleon had his victory in waterloo? if he did won (which he had a great possibility) how would an european picture look? i dont think the powers would had surrendered, i bet they would keep comming......or maybe it would had a "super-autzterlits"(bad spelling) effect.
who knows.....mmmh..i wonder if he had retreated from russia a week after getting to moscow..........
 
Originally posted by SKILORD
Grouchy may have delayed the Prussians, but they would have eventuially won to engage a wounded, tired, yet victorious French Army. The Prussians would be a bit wearied too tho, so who knows.


you say that but IIRC 2 brigades of the young guard held of a corps of prussina infantry at planceilot or was it a divison but with that kind of defence im sure 30,000 would have been able to hold out against the prussian army which was mostly unwilling conscripts not even from prussia.

@ wasnt it hanoverians not germans napoleon?

i believe that even if the weather had cleared up the french wouldnt have won as the british line always beat the french coloum as the britih where the fastest at firing their muskets :D
 
Excellent thread, Napoleon, excellent.

I agree with all the points you made in your opening post. I would like to add I believe the French lost the battle a day or two before when they were unable to break through extremely-thin Allied defenses at Quartres Bras (sp?). Ney was in charge of the French advance guard and produced an attack that was so desultory and uncoordinated a few brigades of British and Dutch soldiers were able to hold them off for hours, then withdraw in good order. Smash the Allied forces at Quartres Bras quickly and the French would have been between the Prussians and the Allies.

However, regardless of the outcome on the field of battle, Napoleon's days were numbered, trying to lead an exhausted French nation against the rest of Europe.
 
Originally posted by Remorseless
I agree with all the points you made in your opening post. I would like to add I believe the French lost the battle a day or two before when they were unable to break through extremely-thin Allied defenses at Quartres Bras (sp?). Ney was in charge of the French advance guard and produced an attack that was so desultory and uncoordinated a few brigades of British and Dutch soldiers were able to hold them off for hours, then withdraw in good order. Smash the Allied forces at Quartres Bras quickly and the French would have been between the Prussians and the Allies.

it also didnt help that D'erlon's corps spent the whole day marching between Quatre Bras and Ligny
 
Yep, forgot about that. The toll on Napoleon's marshals and generals produced some rather diasasterous results in his final campaign.
 
Well, it sounds as though Napoleon could have won the battle assuming that at least one of the things mentioned had gone better and Wellington had made a mistake. However, it doesn't sound likely that he would've lasted much longer. There were simply too many factors, and it would be unrealistic that they all could have gone better for a decisive victory. Thus, I'd say no, because that's just too much for someone to ask for between the weather, Wellington's ability to disengage effectively, etc.
 
but majorgeneral2......we are talking abut napoleon.....one of history's greatest military masterminds! all he needed was a break
 
Originally posted by Ancient Grudge
wasnt it hanoverians not germans napoleon?
Wellington's army contained Hanoverians, Brunswickers, Nassauers, and contingents from other German states. That's why I just called it "german."
 
Originally posted by stalin006
ok ok i found this cool thing on the PBS.org website........recreate teh battle.



http://www.pbs.org/empires/napoleon/flash/n_features/index.html

click on battlefield simmulator

This is fun, a great deal of fun. I love strategy games like this....

I beat the hell outta Napoleon as Wellington (Didn't stick to the 'historical' moves, I got creative) We had a major victory.

As Napoleon I took too many half measures and ended up on the loosing side with A minor defeat. But, hell, that's the best Napoleon could do....
 
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