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Could there be a coup in the US come election time?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by aimeeandbeatles, Aug 19, 2020.

  1. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

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    (1) the courts would rule it illegal nearly instantly
    (2) congress could immediately cut the pay of the military if they joined them.
     
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  2. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

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    I tend to doubt it, especially the 'nearly instantly' part. Part of why Trump has been so successful at dismantling all aspects of government that do not serve him personally is that the courts move far too slow to stop him before he's made changes and then do not tend to reverse the damages even when they rule against him.

    He's also spent this entire term stacking the judiciary for a reason, so I don't think we can even expect that they'd rule against a coup to begin with.

    I mean sure, sometimes the court can move fast-ish like in Gore v Bush, but even then weeks went by before a ruling with the media all claiming Bush had won without all the votes being counted. And in the end the courts decided to stop the counting while Bush was ahead and never even touched the massive conflicts of interest that were behind the effort to stop the counting - like Bush family friends being in charge of the counting. Fast forward to today and Fox and OAN will be decrying imaginary vote rigging and riling up fascist marchers while the court takes time to bring back a ruling that will almost certainly be a 5-4 Trump win.
     
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  3. west india man

    west india man Immortal

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    the 1964 coup in brazil saw the installation of a ''temporary caretaker government'', which was subsequently overthrown in another coup in 1967 which made the dictatorship permanent

    that's not exactly a certainty, especially if, say, soldiers surround the congress buildings
     
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  4. Berzerker

    Berzerker Deity

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    We just watched a failed coup, but Trump is the threat?

    The military leadership is not fond of Trump, I cant see them violating their oaths for him

    I remember a few years ago listening to Republicans warning about Obama remaining in office
     
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  5. EgonSpengler

    EgonSpengler Deity

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    If I were to craft a Tom Clancy-style scenario, where each component part sounds plausible but the chain of events is absurd:

    1. Election Day is a nightmare, with chaos in counting the ballots. Mail-in ballots are "lost", polling places are so understaffed that many of them have to close and the remainder are overburdened, etc. The election for President ends in a virtual tie.
    2. However, the Democratic Party does win control of the Senate.
    3. In the period between the election and inauguration day, it's a lot like what happened in 2000, but with even more mayhem. Neither Biden nor Trump takes the high road and concedes.
    4. Around the holidays, Ruth Bader Ginsburg passes away, leaving the Supreme Court with 8 justices.
    5. Trump nominates a replacement Justice clearly intended to tilt the Court in his favor, so the Democratic Senate drags its feet and refuses to confirm.
    6. Trump declares, "to be the champ, you gotta beat the champ" and since the election doesn't definitively show that Biden won, he refuses to step down.
    7. The 8-justice Supreme Court splits, 4-4.

    You get the idea. At some point, you'd have to connive some kind of confrontation between armed branches of the government, such as nearly happened in Little Rock, AR in 1957.
     
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  6. Commodore

    Commodore Deity

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    That could backfire though as it might turn the military against Congress and incentivize them to back the coup.
     
  7. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

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    It's done to counter-act the coup attempt, not just to piss of the military. Congress controls the purse strings. So if Trump gets the military on his side, Congress has the power to punish them directly. I guess the Treasury cuts the actual checks, and can continue to do so despite what Congress says.
     
  8. Birdjaguar

    Birdjaguar Hanafubuki Retired Moderator Supporter

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    Any actual citation for this nonsense? There was never any issue that Obama would not step down. Please show us who was pitching that nonsense.
     
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  9. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

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    Yes. Not THE threat obviously, there are numerous threats. But A threat? Absolutely. He's been mewling about the illegitimacy of the process for years now, building up a base of resentment and doubt.
     
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  10. Berzerker

    Berzerker Deity

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    You want me to cite conversations I had with Republicans?

    Talk is cheap, lying to a fisa court to spy on political opponents is a whole nuther ballpark. The reason he's griping about RussiaGate is because it was a failed coup that consumed most of his 1st term. He wants to remind us of that fact.
     
  11. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

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    I wasn't talking about his attempted collusion with Russia and the Deep State that freaked out about it.

    I've said before on CFC: the most dangerous words he's said so far is "millions of illegal voters". He was serially dismantling the legitimacy of the last election with his base. Lying about his poll numbers. Then lying about illegal voters. Then lying about the size of his EC victory. And now he's dismantling the legitimacy of mail-in voting.

    Bullet points, maybe?

    • Lying about poll numbers
    • Lying about illegal voters
    • Lying about the size of his EC victory
    • Delegitimizing the mail-in process*


    *seriously, have you seen any leadership from him on this totally essential service other than whining about how it will hurt him?
     
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  12. cardgame

    cardgame Obsessively Opposed to the Typical

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    1) who cares?

    2) house could, senate won't?
     
  13. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

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    Yes, everything could go to pot, obviously. That will always be true. But there are different checks on the system. A successful coup requires a bit more buy-in and coordination with power distributed the way it is that it's been in other countries. Of course, things could still get bad.
     
  14. Birdjaguar

    Birdjaguar Hanafubuki Retired Moderator Supporter

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  15. Socrates99

    Socrates99 Bottoms up!

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    He has 45% of the electorate that supports a legitimate presidency. That number would drop drastically if he tries to stage a coup. At best he could only hope for his fringe loony base that's at best a third of Republicans.

    Yes those same police. The goons that did that open carry protest had no actual targets for those guns to be used on. They went in and postured a lot. That's about it. Most of them had jobs, families, etc and the police knew it was all empty posturing. Carrying a gun is as much a sign of "I'm a douchey gun toting conservative" as anything. Most of those people are too fond of boot leather to actually attack authorities. If you didn't notice they didn't get their way, Whitmer stuck to her guns and no shooting happened.

    TLDR the cops had nothing to fear and they knew it.

    The BLM protestors on the other hand were/are angry specifically at the police themselves. There was unfortunately some malcontents among the protestors. The police were also trying to show off a big stick. Kind of a "dont mess with us or this is what we'll do."

    TLDR the cops were scared and reacted that way.

    Most of these people, military or cop, don't,and shouldn't, see Biden as a threat worth committing treason over. Too few Republicans would risk treason as well.
     
  16. IglooDude

    IglooDude Enforcing Rule 34 Retired Moderator Supporter

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    If it's any consolation, I was not aware of that aspect of pardons, and for that matter apparently neither was Trump himself, as the caretakers of the Susan B Anthony museum and her descendants have said that given her rejection of her trial's results in the first place indicate she would reject the pardon.

    I feel like a Biden presidency would be something close to a caretaker government. In the same ballpark as the Ford Administration.
     
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  17. Codeword Iroquois

    Codeword Iroquois Warlord

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    Problem: Doing some reading, it would seem that it would be possible for the Senate to block the House cutting funding (Considering McConnell seems firmly in the president's camp, and that votes for things these days seem to go by party lines. Even if it tied, the President would have the advantage, as Pence has the tiebreaker vote.) In other words, a large number of Republicans would have to be willing to sacrifice the likelihood of their bills being heard to cut the pay of the military.
     
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  18. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Deity

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    I can't see Trump pulling it off, he's to incompetent and I don't think the military will support him.

    More likely he refused to recognize the result and moans and complains from Nov-Jan.

    He might also win although I have my doubts.

    Only about 1/3 support him, 45% of the ones who bother voting.
     
  19. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Well, one would like to hope that the US isn't near the day when it has a coup. Up to now it only organized coups in other countries...
     
  20. amadeus

    amadeus Civ2 / Law and Order!

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    How many supporters of the President, really, are going to be willing to take up arms in support of him?

    How many people can you say you’ve personally met that would risk their jobs, their homes, their families—which are not really at risk*—for Donald J. Trump?

    Suppose Biden figured out a way to rig the election in his favor, and did it. Do you think there’d be mass violence? Even then, I think the cogwheels of republican constitutionalism would still churn along and get rid of the nuisance hairy-legged exVeep.

    The radicalism just isn’t there. Thank goodness!

    *I mean in a relative sense. Not somebody like a coal miner who might be put out of work by stricter EPA rules, but like people in Damascus or Tripoli.
     

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