Coup D'etat?

[VoodooAce]

Ok. Drinking too much coffee and saw a show about the downfall of Rome.

As a fan of history I can't help but wonder occasionaly what will be the ultimate downfall of the USA.

That's not to say there has to be one. I think it arrogant, though maybe natural, to believe that we are any different than all those who precede us.

Going on the assumption that we're not smoked by an astroid or visited by aliens, what could happen over the next hundred years or so that could mean the end of the USA as we know it?

Under what circumstances could the kinds of things that usually doom a nation, happen to us? Another civil war....a large bloc of states seceding together? A war against an alliance of nations who's combined strength betters ours and our allies?

Personally, I think the most likely scenario would be a coup. Probably a few ways this could happen. Along the civil war lines, maybe there's enough objection of the results of an election ala the south and Lincoln? Suppose we suffer through a horrible depression and the people elect a guy that seems to close to being a commust and enough military leadership fights it?But most likely would be a president that doesn't want to give up power.

Can anybody forsee a scenario in which a president cancels an election, maybe? We've been attacked and/or face some dire situation and a strong president sees his opportunity, secures support of the military leadership, declares martial law or something, and 'postpones' an election? Bloody, or not, I can see it happening under the right circumstances...with a little imagination.

I'm not putting some paranoid fantasy about Dumbya pulling something like this off. He probably lacks the 'essentials'.

Anyway, what would happen? If enough military leaders were willing to fight the coup, could they? What could the people do about it? What would the rest of the world do or think. I know there are limitless possibilities, but....

And what about our authoritarian friends out there? Can you see any of the above scenarios leading to you supporting a coup?

I know there has to be some decent reading out there on the subject. Fictional or not. Any suggestions?

Also, btw, I know Rome continued long after the loss of the Republic, but the loss of the American Republic to such a coup would equal an end to America as far as I'm concerned.

 

[nixon]

As long as we continue to fight, nothing will be able to stop us. I believe, though, that we should watch out for future massive religious conflicts between the Western world and another of the world religions whose misery drives them into launching insane and vicious attacks on our peace loving societies. If we stick together, those countries who love and appreciate peace and prosperity will succede in defending themselves as they and we did so many times in the 20th century.

 

[newfangle]

I agree Nixon, minus the first sentance. It contradicts the rest of your post.

In order for America, and the Western World, to continue to prosper, changes must be made. During the next 50 years, China will presumably rise to a superpower status, and Islam will continue its vast expansion. The foreign and military practices of the US will most likely have to undergo change.

But the 21st century will be unlike any other century we have ever witnessed. Technology is growing on an exponential curve, poverty in the third world is growing, the AIDS pandemic is growing, we are approaching a potential climatic disastor, our reliance on fossil fuels is dropping, the EU is incorporating more and more nations into its fold. Who knows what will happen, but all signs indicate it will have both positive and negative results.

 

[ejday]

Rik-a-frik-a-frak-a.
Posted before I completed it.

Sorry.

 

[Pillager]

The USA will fall, but will re-emerge under the wings of Empire.

Empire will RISE AGAIN

 

[amadeus]

Originally posted by VoodooAce
We've been attacked and/or face some dire situation and a strong president sees his opportunity, secures support of the military leadership, declares martial law or something, and 'postpones' an election?

Roosevelt was close enough to doing that.

Opportunity - Japan attacks Pearl Harbor.

Support - MacArthur, Eisenhower, Patton

Martial Law - Internment of 100,000+ Japanese

Elections - Didn't need to postpone. Unification under Roosevelt and the war.

 

[ejday]

Okay, after my mistake above, here's my actual answer. Your eyes may now glaze over...

Originally posted by VoodooAce
Ok. Drinking too much coffee and saw a show about the downfall of Rome... As a fan of history I can't help but wonder occasionaly what will be the ultimate downfall of the USA... That's not to say there has to be one. I think it arrogant, though maybe natural, to believe that we are any different than all those who precede us.

Valid point. History tends to repeat itself. OTOH, paradigms have shifted. The world has never interacted quite the way it does today.

Originally posted by VoodooAce
Under what circumstances could the kinds of things that usually doom a nation, happen to us? Another civil war....a large bloc of states seceding together? A war against an alliance of nations who's combined strength betters ours and our allies?

I don't really see the United States ceasing to exist. Changing, perhaps, but in a reasonably orderly evolution. It's possible we could just disintegrate, but I doubt it.
• Civil war? The South will rise again? Nah. Maybe some localized Bubba uprisings at worst, but I give the rest of the "Southern Bloc" enough credit that they don't really want the Snotzi confederacy representing them. I could be wrong, though. Greadius is down in Tallahassee, he's probably got a better perspective on the mindset down there. Greadius?
• Civil war, other? Don't currently see any issues divisive enough to spark anything more than grumbling. Like border states are going to secede in protest of NAFTA? Nah. Too much federal grant money balancing out the loss in trade.
• War against superior forces? Nah. I don't see a world war where any major industrialized forces go against the US. Too much money lost in trade (far more than any trade status or current embargo). I could see the war on terror escalating an order of magnitude or so, turning into a quasi-religious war (the "West" versus Islam), nukes by terrorists in US cities, then we vaporize Riyadh, Damascus and... where else? Maybe Jakarta. The US would probably pull back for some soul searching after that. What could destroy the US? Only a concentrated, coordinated WMD attack (probably biological). Of course, we'd take the rest of the world with us, everybody that was even suspected of participating in the conspiracy (but fanatics wouldn't mind, it would, after all, be their ticket to God).

Originally posted by VoodooAce
Personally, I think the most likely scenario would be a coup. Probably a few ways this could happen. Along the civil war lines, maybe there's enough objection of the results of an election ala the south and Lincoln? Suppose we suffer through a horrible depression and the people elect a guy that seems to close to being a commust and enough military leadership fights it?But most likely would be a president that doesn't want to give up power.

Doubt there'll be a coup.
• All the bloodshed goes against more liberal principles (and the far-far-far left radicals won't be able to muster the numbers needed -- for all the whining, it simply isn't that bad here).
• On the other end, there's not enough hardcore reactionaries to whip the far-far right into anything sustainable either.
• Either side: let's say one "American fanatic" pulls a Lee Harvey. The other end of the spectrum, plus that darned swing-vote middle, will be enough to ensure the fascists don't take over.

Originally posted by VoodooAce
Can anybody forsee a scenario in which a president cancels an election, maybe? We've been attacked and/or face some dire situation and a strong president sees his opportunity, secures support of the military leadership, declares martial law or something, and 'postpones' an election? Bloody, or not, I can see it happening under the right circumstances...with a little imagination... I'm not putting some paranoid fantasy about Dumbya pulling something like this off. He probably lacks the 'essentials'.

Jeezuz. Not much for holding grudges, are you? Did you lose money on election 2000 or something?
Short answer: No. We've had elections in the best and the worst of times, during wars... no, I don't see any cancellation of an election. Ever.

Originally posted by VoodooAce
Anyway, what would happen? If enough military leaders were willing to fight the coup, could they? What could the people do about it? What would the rest of the world do or think. I know there are limitless possibilities, but....

Depends on where this coup came from. It's more likely a modern American coup would happen with lawyers than guns. But assume it did happen, you'd have to look at the source of motivation for overturning the system. If it was politics, yes, you'd probably have generals aligning to support or fight the coup. If it was a direct threat to physical security (...the army of the undead has already taken over Canada and our border guards are now looking nervously across the gate), you'd have martial law, the National Guard, and probably an instant, official, tertiary militia, too. The military would be united.

Originally posted by VoodooAce
And what about our authoritarian friends out there? Can you see any of the above scenarios leading to you supporting a coup?

Hm. Don't know whether I qualify to answer this or not. I'm strongly in favor of huge personal liberties, but I'd like a strong government to protect those rights. Decide for yourself.
My kneejerk reaction is No. I would not support any kind of coup. OTOH, if someone instituted martial law to take away freedoms based on religious tenants, that would violate my separation of church and state rule, and I might support a coup. If someone decided to suspend our regularly scheduled revolution (also known as: the election), depending on the circumstance, I might support a coup. Both situations, though, assume the system as it was intended --and as it works -- has already been compromised.

Originally posted by VoodooAce
Also, btw, I know Rome continued long after the loss of the Republic, but the loss of the American Republic to such a coup would equal an end to America as far as I'm concerned.

Hey, as a nation, we already survived the civil war. No reason to think we couldn't survive another challenge.

 

[Ohwell]

America's downfall... wow, that's a subject I haven't thought about in a while. I must say I cannot think of a single way that it can fall; rather, a collection of events. Now we must remember that the fall of America doesn't neccesarily mean some dictatorship will arise.

I think the most likely scenario would possibly be popular rebellion due to government actions, and the citizens would unfortunately choose a leader who does not know how to run a country. It would spiral down from there.

But I am intrigued by the coup d'etat theory...

 

[MCdread]

As it is today, I can't see how could the US end without considering the end of (at least) the entire western world. And I do not think that the end will come as the consequence of a global war.
However, we can expect the US to be a very different place in a not so distant future. In 50 to 100 years, immigration will completely change the face of the country. In a few decades hispanics and asians will be the majority. Until now the United States were built by european immigrants that shared some basic common civilization, albeit coming from different and rival countries. But now there is a different challenge: if things start going badly, if some major economic crisis erupts who knows how will these different cultures react?

Of course, this what I say and I don't have any view in locco, but watching from distance it seems that a very important subculture is emerging at a fast speed in the american society and it may soon be the major culture: a hispanic culture.

 

[Greadius]

Originally posted by VoodooAce
Anyway, what would happen? If enough military leaders were willing to fight the coup, could they? What could the people do about it? What would the rest of the world do or think. I know there are limitless possibilities, but....

And what about our authoritarian friends out there? Can you see any of the above scenarios leading to you supporting a coup?

Most career military officers are bureaucrats and politicians, not soldiers. The type of mentality that it takes to declare martial law is very different than the type of mentality it takes to be a successful general in the U.S. military.

Second, I know many, many military people, and none of them have fancies about how great a military dictatorship is. One of the thing that is impressed upon them at bootcamp and pried into them as part of patriotism training is that they fight for things like freedom & the Constitution. If they were to get orders that was against that, I don't doubt ENOUGH of them would question orders as to create a problem.

Originally posted by ejday
• Civil war? The South will rise again? Nah. Maybe some localized Bubba uprisings at worst, but I give the rest of the "Southern Bloc" enough credit that they don't really want the Snotzi confederacy representing them. I could be wrong, though. Greadius is down in Tallahassee, he's probably got a better perspective on the mindset down there. Greadius?

The South shall rise again!

About 50% of the population down here is transplant or first generation. My parents are European and American via New York, for example. Lots of immigration from Central & South America as well.
Basically, very few Southerners actually have ties to the old South, and those that do aren't the industrial, political, or social leaders (well, no proportional to their numbers).

The places with the strong southern tendancies are basically backwater rural places. Urban areas, Tallahassee for example, situated well within the Old South is 40% black. I don't see many of them supporting that kind of backslide.

Originally posted by MCdread
Of course, this what I say and I don't have any view in locco, but watching from distance it seems that a very important subculture is emerging at a fast speed in the american society and it may soon be the major culture: a hispanic culture.

Hispanic culture is actually fairly well intigrated already. Plus those population expectations assume expansion rates will be consistant, when history has taught us it almost certainly won't. If you'll recall the anti-Catholic stances often taken in centuries past they were based on the scare tactic that they'll reproduce and outnumber 'us', destroying our way of life.
Well, they stopped reproducing and adapted to the way of life. I'm sure hispanic culture will do the same.
Additionally, the hispanic culture is far from uniform. Central America is still the main source, but it makes up only about 15% of total immigrants, and about 60% of hispanic immigrants. Plus immigrants are now better spread out amongst the United States, easing areas of integration.

 

[sysyphus]

Voodoo Ace's main point, that historically speaking every great empire (or nation or society or whatever) will evetually fall carries much weight. The Law of Averages alone guarantees it. Of course, it doesn't guarantee WHEN.

For America I don't see it happening any time within the next 100 years at least, more likely longer.

America's days as the lone superpower on the other hand are numbered, in all facets including military strength, economic strength and cultural influence.

The rise of the EU and China are inevitable. Will either one surpass America in power? Not sure, but they will be competitive.

India is also touted as a future superpower, but they have a very long way to go. Population alone guarantees nothing.

The return of the British Empire? Forget it, especially when the most powerful countries in the B.E. other than Britain itself are Canada and Australia. Not exactly a couple of power houses there.

 

[ainwood]

Virulent pandemic. Millions killed within weeks. Chaos and looting result, martial law is instigated. Warlords rise against "government" forces, and leads to power struggles with no clear winner. Ultimately leads to collapse of society with a prolonged recession.

 

[Remorseless]

Coup d'etat? Fascist dictator? Overthrow by the far-right or left? The South rises again?

Don't think so. History does tend to repeat itself, but in new and unique ways each time.

Technology is the key here. The worldwide web, TV, radio, telephone, cells, etc., have radically altered the planetscape when it comes to politics. Look at Iran and China -- two repressive societies struggling to deal with the instant communications bombarding their populaces.

What I think will happen to the good old USA is actually something quite positive. Sometime over the next few centuries, the last major non-democratic regimes will have fallen, and the world community will begin the serious business of integrating on a planetary scale. At this point, the US, like every other country, will surrender some of its sovereignity and become part of the world government.

To quote John Lennon, "They say that I'm a dreamer/Well, I'm not the only one."

Peace.

 

[gr8ful wes]

The poor will revolt and eat the rich. We are already seeing it at any gathering of the G8

 

[Baleog]

I don't see the US "falling". I see it as a perfectly reasonable possibility that they won't be a world super power within 100 years, not because they are invaded or anything, but just because of the same thing that happens to all long term superpowers - becoming overly arrogant or overly corrupt or overly decadent (not implying anything, believe it or not) (or some other reason) - indirecting resulting in a decrease in power, and someone else filling the gap.