COVID-19 virus thread (formerly Wuhan coronavirus)

[Yeekim]

Now it's being said the source may be pangolins rather than bats...

 

[H4run]

Man I've seen so many horrible things on twitter, from home quarantine that the resident begging for help because her husband was dying and no one coming for help. To a satellite record of high intensity of sulfur dioxide (from windy.com) that can be a sign of high cremation that happened in that area.

This is also coincide with Miles Guo interview that claimed that human body are cremated daily in Wuhan in a huge number (like 1200?) he is a shady individual but the truth must be somewhere between the official Chinese government statement and his over bombastic statement.

While here, Indonesian public get fooled by the government to believe there is 0 infection in Indonesia and now a shady post tossing around on whatsapp saying that we don't need to worry about the virus and take zero precaution about it because our immune system are so strong (blasted idiot) while in Australia Herald I read that Indonesian government doesn't have enough tools to detect the virus. This is so mess up and embarrassing.

 

[aelf]

What is interesting is that China shows what happens when the virus gets loose and control come late in the process. The rest of the world shows that taking control early does make a difference. Japan, Korea, Thailand and Singapore are the places to watch to see if containment is working.

It's not working. Contact tracing has been going well, but there are new cases every few days and more and more contact points, some that might have put hundreds of people at risk.

The harsh truth is containment would only have worked if travel from China had been banned at the start of the year, and that was not done in Singapore, either because of diplomatic reasons or underestimation of the problem, no thanks to China's early attempts to cover up. Failing that, major public events should have been cancelled and perhaps major attractions closed, but those weren't done either for political and financial reasons. And Bloomberg is now praising the Prime Minister for a job well done. Clearly the Western media has no idea what's going on.

I guess all those measures were deemed not worth it, in which case it's strange that the government is only beginning to switch gears and focus on mitigation rather than containment. Which is probably going to be the case - we'll just have to live with it like a bad case of the flu.

 

[Zelig]

This is also coincide with Miles Guo interview that claimed that human body are cremated daily in Wuhan in a huge number (like 1200?) he is a shady individual but the truth must be somewhere between the official Chinese government statement and his over bombastic statement.

Yeah this is just a dumb online rumour.

Natural death rate for city the size of Wuhan is going to involve hundreds of cremations per day anyway.

 

[TheMeInTeam]

And Bloomberg is now praising the Prime Minister for a job well done. Clearly the Western media has no idea what's going on.

They likely know, but what they actually say is similarly motivated by "political and financial reasons".

 

[rah]

Does anyone believe that there have only been 1000 deaths worldwide to this?

 

[Birdjaguar]

Does anyone believe that there have only been 1000 deaths worldwide to this?

No, there have been 1037!

There is no way to tell or count those that got sick and died and were not counted. The exact count doesn't matter. Watch the trend lines. Many countries have very poor record keeping.

 

[Hrothbern]

No, there have been 1037!

There is no way to tell or count those that got sick and died and were not counted. The exact count doesn't matter. Watch the trend lines. Many countries have very poor record keeping.

yes the trendlines
and hoping that the method of measuring-reporting does not change to get like for like in the trendline.

The issue there in Wuhan is saturation of capacities of measuring (confirmed new cases) and hospital care (death rate).
Amount people in "quarantaine" (by reporting definition) is since days at max.

What can be seen is that the death rate in other Chinese provinces is much lower than in Wuhan
That can be for example from better hospital care because of more relative capacity

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019–20_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

 

[rah]

No, there have been 1037!

I don't believe the Chinese are being honest and think the death toll is much higher. Maybe not, but I'd bet money on it.

 

[Birdjaguar]

I don't believe the Chinese are being honest and think the death toll is much higher. Maybe not, but I'd bet money on it.

I don't think the Chinese government knows how many have died. Hence my ridiculously precise number (1037). The Chinese government is trying to balance the political, economic and social aspects of this while trying to keep people from dying. It is difficult job where truth will be a casualty. It is similar to the situation that the Trump administration faced with the immigration at the border and breaking up of families. In that case they decided that the politics of of it mattered more than anything else and the social and child and family welfare issues were ignored. In addition they had no ability/desire to keep any records of what they were doing. Truth didn't matter.

 

[Cheetah]

Does anyone believe that there have only been 1000 deaths worldwide to this?

The only thing I trust a dictatorship to do is to lie, so no, the death count is probably higher.

But still – or even because of that – I'd like to ask for any real data on Covid-19:

1. Do we know anything about which classes of people (children, young adults, elderly, etc.) are affected, and how much?

2. Do we know anything about the severity of an infection?

Adding to the lies of the CCP, and, as Birdjaguar said, that it is probably hard for them to gather data for themselves as well, there is also the issue that everyone who haven't reacted strongly to the virus, will most likely not have attempted to contact health services, and have therefore gone unnoticed.

This Guardian article had this part on the lethality:

Why is this worse than normal influenza, and how worried are the experts?
We don’t yet know how dangerous the new coronavirus is, and we won’t know until more data comes in. The mortality rate is around 2%. However, this is likely to be an overestimate since many more people are likely to have been infected by the virus but not suffered severe enough symptoms to attend hospital, and so have not been counted. For comparison, seasonal flu typically has a mortality rate below 1% and is thought to cause about 400,000 deaths each year globally. Sars had a death rate of more than 10%.

Which seems to indicate that Covid-19 is less than twice as deadly as the regular flu?

 

[Imaus]

Shall we rename the title to Covid-19?

 

[aimeeandbeatles]

I can't edit the title

 

[innonimatu]

It's not working. Contact tracing has been going well, but there are new cases every few days and more and more contact points, some that might have put hundreds of people at risk.

The harsh truth is containment would only have worked if travel from China had been banned at the start of the year, and that was not done in Singapore, either because of diplomatic reasons or underestimation of the problem, no thanks to China's early attempts to cover up. Failing that, major public events should have been cancelled and perhaps major attractions closed, but those weren't done either for political and financial reasons. And Bloomberg is now praising the Prime Minister for a job well done. Clearly the Western media has no idea what's going on.

Unfortunate it can't be a consolation that western countries did the exact same mistake:
greed (tourism revenuers) overrode caution. Which means that if it spreads uncontrollable unlikely there will countries with any slack able to ship help to others.

I don't believe the Chinese are being honest and think the death toll is much higher. Maybe not, but I'd bet money on it.

I also think that the number of infections is much higher than admitted. There's a floating lab, that cruise chip in Japan. Even a quarantine official got infected now, and they should have been taking precautions.
It's a nasty one no doubt. But much of what was done in the last month worldwide was as security theater. Lots of talk and symbolic efforts but not the basic one, shut down all non-essential international travel.

If the chinese have been doing it internally between regions, regardless of the cost, there must be very good reasons for that. Even delaying a possible worldwide and allowing the virus to be better known before it hits would be a big gain. It's still too unclear what the mortality , duration of sickness, etc are.

I don't think the Chinese government knows how many have died. Hence my ridiculously precise number (1037).

Not only ridiculously precise but, I just noticed yesterday, a ridiculous fit to a function that someone published on the 5th (from prior announced deaths) and accurately predicted (+- 2 or three) the daily announced numbers for the next week. When nature is so well-behaved, it's way suspicious.

 

[Farm Boy]

Don't look at the drone.

 

[red_elk]

Judging by confirmed/recovered graphs, the average time between being diagnosed and recovery is about 2 weeks.

 

[Aleksey_aka_al]

That's true, but sensationalism comes from media, not the governments. The governments reaction is IMO adequate, making people panic is certainly not in their interests.

Surely some of the Russian чинуши grabbed the opportunity and exploited that virus in a very serious ИБД manner like an adequate чинуша would when he can. I am surprised they have not closed AliExpress yet, ведь это кость в горле. Seems, AliExpress has some money to pay off, or maybe they are afraid Xi Jinping won’t tolerate that.

Moderator Action: This is an English speaking forum. Kindly write in English or provide a translation. --LM
Please read the forum rules: http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=422889

 

[Aleksey_aka_al]

So you don't think the chinese government knows what they are doing? Because they thought it was necessary, and have had ample time already to rethink. In fact the opposite happened: first they tried to downplay it, then they moved to restrict tre spread of the virus.

Government is not a single creature, it is a collection of creatures. And some of those individuals if not almost everyone of them are doing their careers. Career builders which are good enough to be above an average citizen, usually, know very well what they are doing. It’s just that it often differs from what they say they are doing.

A big, ugly and very dangerous monster is a good ground for that kind of careers. But it is also a certain way to go down with your career, if you won’t support that line about this monster being big, ugly and very dangerous, because all the other career builders will do exactly that and will smite you out with animal pleasure.

If hospitals are overwhelmed with this disease, or medical staff is sick, more people are going to die for lack of care. The money is an accounting fiction, the real resources are the people and material and those are what needs to be managed because those are limited. More money isn't going to buy you more medics where and when you need them. Letting a dangerous virus spread is a recipe for catastrophe. Unless you want to do things the medieval way: board up all the sick at home and let them fend for themselves? Which, ultimately, is what happens if no care is available. Containing infections diseases is a priority to keep healthcare systems working.

That doesn’t explain how does blocking a city when virus is out already, or building a hospital at a random beautiful spot, or wearing masks on everyone achieve anything except money waste and exploiting. Well, it is also a good show, okay.

That doesn’t explain why would Walmart destroy 10,000$ worth of goods.

Money is not a fiction. It is someone’s labour, and so life, put in digits.

 

[caketastydelish]

Based on what I've heard, the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation have donation 100 million american dollars to fight this. If so, good on them.

 

[Rashiminos]

My favorite part is the very beginning where he shows Chinese people (probably due to their insane government's propaganda) claiming this is some type of biowarfare attack carried out by the US.

The spicier variants on that theory feature Chinese agents stealing samples of the bioweapon, and then, OOPSIE...